Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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074
FXUS61 KRLX 212007
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
307 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
After another mild night, a cold front crosses the Middle Ohio
Valley today. The front stalls or wavers through the end of the
week, with significant rainfall possible into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

A cold front currently over central portions of the CWA will
stall as the 1st of several low pressure waves ride up along
with it. NAM is further west and north with the GFS puts the
axis along or near the Ohio River. All other models are
somewhere inbetween. With the ground being saturated and and
streams and rivers just experienced flooding, it won`t take much
in the way of rain to cause flooding of small streams and creeks
and get the rivers to rise as well. Rain from this 1st wave
will set us up for the next wave on Friday into Saturday. So,
have issue an FFA for our Ohio river counties and SE OH counties
as 1st wave will pass over those areas starting 00Z Friday and
continuing through 12Z Sunday. This watch may have to be
expanded depending on where the heavier rains fall.

Temperatures were a consenus of model guidance and QPF from
OHRFC/WPC guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM Wednesday...

Showers, heavy at times, will continue on Thursday as wave of
low pressure moves northeast through the area along stalled
frontal boundary. Anomalously high moisture content air, ushered
into the region on strong llj, with pw values progged to rise
to 1.3 to 1.4 inches. Could have a rumble of thunder during the
afternoon Thursday, mainly across far southern/eastern zones.
Frontal boundary will move back north across the area on Friday,
with additional waves of low pressure moving northeast through
the area, enhancing precipitation. Parts of southeast Ohio and
northern WV still look to be hit the hardest in the short term
period, with a general 1.5 to up to 2 inches of qpf expected
across those areas, with lessor, but still significant amounts
south and east of the Ohio River. Still looking like a good bet
for at least localized flooding along creeks and streams during
the period, and water headlines may be necessary in future
shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

Precipitation will be increasing during the period particularly
Saturday night and Sunday out ahead of an approaching cold
front. Cold front will move through the area on Sunday, with a
drying trend expected behind the front for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Wednesday...

A cold front, with showers along and behind it will bring MVFR
to possibly IFR the rest of this afternoon into tonight. Also
included some VCTS and wind gusts at all sites. MVFR to IFR is
expected tonight in stratus and rain/fog. Winds will become W to
NW with the frontal passage, and more northerly overnight.

Cold front to stall over the area with waves of low pressure
riding up and along the front overnight tonight and through the
week. Best timing of the 1st wave will be towards 12Z to 18Z
Thursday. Expect MVFR/IFR Cigs/VSBys as the wave of low pressure
passes through during morning hours on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR Conditions along and
behind the front could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    M    H    M    M    H    L    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday morning for
     WVZ005>011.
OH...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday morning for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday morning for
     KYZ101-103.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MC
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JS



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