Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
665
FXUS61 KRLX 221818
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
218 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front
approaches middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM Friday...

Surface and upper level ridging to the north continues the
quite, but unseasonably warm weather, with dense valley fog once
again forming overnight, and then burning off around mid
morning.

Opened up diurnal spread with guidance suggesting slightly
lower lows tonight, and the MET higher for highs Saturday. Those
MET values seemed high, but opted to go just below 90 across
the lowlands. There should be less cumulus and cirrus around,
and the morning inversion is progged to be more shallow,
compared with this morning. This, with light downslope flow,
should favor strong heating for late September,

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

High pressure surface and aloft will remain in control during
the short term period, with warm sunny days, above normal
temperatures, dry conditions, and foggy mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

High pressure will remain in control until Thursday, with an
upper shortwave trough and surface cold front move through the
area. At this time, precipitation coverage still looks to be
minimal, along with QPF. Cooler/more fall like weather to round
out the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Friday...

High pressure spells VFR conditions outside of VLIFR river and
valley fog 08Z to 14Z tonight, starting an hour or two earlier
in the deeper valleys in and near the mountains. The fog
forecast is less certain at BKW, but fog there should be no
worse than this morning.

Surface flow will be light northeast by day and calm at night,
while northeast flow aloft this afternoon becomes light east
tonight, and remains light east on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary early
Saturday. Brief IFR forecast at BKW may not occur.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.