536
FXUS61 KRLX 101818
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
218 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler weather into the weekend. The chance for rain showers
again Saturday afternoon as an upper level system crosses.
Temperatures will climb to average or above starting Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

Drier air associated with high pressure was allowing clearing to
slowly edge through the middle Ohio Valley this afternoon, while
clouds and showers persisted farther east. Improvement should
continue into tonight, with the showers ending as a mid-upper
level short wave trough exits by sunset.

Clearing and light wind tonight per high pressure ridging into
the area from the southwest will allow areas of valley fog to
form, but there may also be enough residual low level moisture
for low clouds to form before dawn Saturday. Either or should
dissipate after daybreak Saturday.

Clearing tonight may allow night owls to catch some aurora
activity if they head away from city lights to somewhere with a
clear view of the northern sky. Head to the Space Weather
Prediction Center`s website for more info on the G4 Geomagnetic
Storm Watch: swpc.noaa.gov.

Another mid-upper level short wave trough is likely to bring a
band of showers across the area from west to east on Saturday.
Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday afternoon as the
atmosphere destabilizes per mid level cooling in concert with
daytime heating. A mid level inversion should be just high
enough for cells to grow tall enough for charge separation, and
even small hail per dry entrainment, which will also promote
gusty winds. Echo top temperatures should lower into the -20s C
at least across the north.

Central guidance reflects surface temperatures modestly below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Starting Saturday, a clipper type system will approach from the
northwest and spread chances for showers and storms into the
area by the afternoon. The associated surface low will be
forecast to stay just north of the area and rotate toward the
east with upper level support sustaining it through the rest of
the day. The feature will likely drag a weak cold frontal
boundary through which will promote greater chances of shower
and storm activity for the late afternoon and evening. By
nightfall, the feature will likely pass east away from the area
and cut off most of the moisture flux, however a few lingering
showers in the northeast mountains are possible for Sunday
morning.

Thereafter, a surface high pressure system builds in along with
weak upper level ridging to reinforce mainly settled weather
for the rest of Sunday. More good news may come to fruition as
high pressure sustains the calm weather through most of Monday
although another system is forecast to approach the area and
promote chances for precipitation and thunderstorms by the
evening across the western flank of our CWA, spreading into the
rest of the area by late evening.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal for this period and
then starting Monday we climb back to normal or above through
the next period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

The aforementioned system which would develop over the midwest
will gain momentum and start spreading chances for showers and
storms into the area directly perpendicular to us. Activity
will start off in the easter sector of the surface low and then
as the low shifts eastward it will pass directly over the area
and kick out by Wednesday morning. This track will provide
opportunities for non-diurnal thunderstorms as well until the
low exits. The lows upper level trough support will lag behind
and create some lingering precipitation opportunities well into
Wednesday until high pressure slides in from the west by
Thursday morning.

Due to the GFS and EURO being in full sync with the Canadian not
too far behind decided to accept central guidance which equated
to chances for both days in the form of shower and storm
activity. Most of the storm activity will be diurnal in nature
so limited thunderstorm potential outside of the afternoons.

Bountiful high pressure as a weak surface high and a strong upper
level ridge is forecast to build in for Thursday, but the break
will be short lived with another system forecast to originate
over Texas and will shift north and take a direct flight across
the Midwest. This will spread chance of showers and diurnal
storms Thursday evening and through Friday. At this point models
diverge greatly and felt obligated to accept a blended model
solution for the rest of this period which equated to carrying
chances for showers and diurnal storm potential through the rest
of Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

IFR to low MVFR conditions in the mountains and MVFR conditions
at CRW and HTS will gradually improve this afternoon while CKB
and PKB should remain VFR. Scattered showers east of the Ohio
River may also interrupt improvement with brief MVFR conditions,
before dissipating late today.

Clearing edging southeastward through the middle Ohio Valley
this afternoon will continue across the remainder of the area
tonight. This will allow valley fog to form east of the Ohio
River, which could lower to IFR. However, low clouds could form
with IFR to MVFR ceilings, interrupting the fog. Either or
should dissipate after daybreak Saturday, allowing VFR
conditions. However, an upper level system is likely to bring
showers into the area later Saturday morning, with thunder also
possible near or just beyond the end of the TAF period Saturday
afternoon.

Northwest surface flow, gusty here and there this afternoon,
will become calm to light and variable tonight, and then west
southwest on Saturday, becoming gusty late Saturday morning.
Light north to northwest flow aloft through tonight will become
light to moderate southwest on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling and visibility restrictions
may vary from forecast. Timing and extent of fog or low stratus
tonight may vary from forecast. Winds will fluctuate this
afternoon and Saturday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected currently.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...TRM