Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
077 FXUS62 KTBW 080733 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 233 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024 .DISCUSSION... Weak upper ridging has build into the Gulf of Mexico from the NW Caribbean Sea and is expected to hold over the region for the next few days while the cold surface high pressure air mass weakens and moves into the W Atlantic with winds becoming southerly allowing the airmass to moderate with warming temps, increasing dew points and deepening moisture through Tuesday. By mid week, an amplifying upper longwave trough is expected to quickly move eastward from the Plains through the Great Lakes then along the Eastern Seaboard. Associated upper dynamics to push the next strong cold front through the region Wednesday with morning showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Nature Coast. Afternoon PoPs decrease further S as the upper support lifts away from the area ahead of the cold front. NW flow aloft to bring another cold Canadian high pressure airmass into the region behind the front on breezy northerly winds through Thursday. Temperatures dropping significantly by Thursday and into Friday. The high pressure region is expected to hold along the East Coast with low level flow veering easterly over the FL Peninsula with moderating conditions next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue with SCT cirrus aloft and light NE winds becoming onshore near the coast in the afternoon mainly for northern terminals. && .MARINE... High pressure will continue to weaken and hold over the region with light winds and slight seas into early week. Mid week a strong cold front will move through the region with a chance of showers or a few thunderstorms ahead of the front Wednesday. Behind the front, another cold and dry high pressure airmass will build into the area on breezy northwesterly winds and choppy seas with hazardous small craft advisory conditions likely on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will weaken over the region with a moderating trend producing increasing temps and humidity through early week as light winds produce low dispersion values today. The next cold front is expected to move over the area mid week with a chance of showers or thunderstorms ahead of the front. Another cold and dry airmass will build into the region on gusty northerly winds to end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 59 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 79 59 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 77 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 76 58 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 76 51 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 73 61 76 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Inland Levy. Gulf waters...None. && $$ RDavis