Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
682 FXUS62 KTBW 010033 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 833 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 831 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Recent KTBW radar imagery shows widely scattered showers with embedded storms across the southern portions of the forecast area with another area of light showers across the Nature Coast. This activity will gradually weaken over the next couple of hours as the atmosphere stabilizes but scattered showers and isolated storms may linger overnight into Tuesday morning across the Gulf waters and possibly nearby coastal land areas as a weak TUTT meanders over the region. Highest rain chances for land areas overnight will mainly be north of Tampa Bay where low level flow is more south-southwesterly but the more southeasterly flow for southern portions of the area will keep activity further offshore. Other than some minor tweaks to PoPs based on recent radar trends, the remainder of the forecast remains on track at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 We continue to see a huge complex of rain sitting over the Gulf this afternoon. For the most part these showers have stayed off the coast however southwesterly flow will cause us to slowly see the showers starting to push towards the coast in the afternoon and evening hours. We will also see our typical seabreeze thunderstorms start to develop over the next few hours inland. The southwesterly flow will keep us under a wet pattern through mid week with highest rainfall totals along the coast areas. As we go through the end of our work week we will see a stall cold front over north Florida. This will only enhance our moisture content with PW topping out around 2.25 both Thursday and Friday. Some ensembles show a tropical low development somewhere along the front either in the Atlantic or the Gulf but it is way to early to determine any impacts. Right now NHC currently is holding development at 20%. However regardless of development we will see widespread showers during this period with rainfall totals between 4 to 6 inches for Thursday and Friday combined. Not much changing for the weekend with the front still hanging out and another 3 to 4 inches of rainfall totals possible for Saturday and Sunday combined. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 748 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Occasional flight restrictions possible at SWFL terminals at the first hour or two of the TAF period but VFR conditions will then prevail through the remainder of the overnight hours. Scattered TSRA is then expected to develop by the late afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday with occasional restrictions possible at all terminals beginning around 19Z/20Z and continuing through the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 154 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A very moist southwesterly flow will remain in place through Wednesday with widespread showers expected across the Gulf with speeds around 5 to 10 knots outside of storms. As we go into Thursday and Friday a front will stall across North Florida. This will continue to bring widespread showers to the Gulf with winds staying out of the south and west around 5 to 10 knot. NHC is currently monitoring that areas for possible development along the front Thursday and Friday but there is no clear picture if or when it would development and chances are currently at 20%. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 154 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a minimum. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 88 78 88 / 40 60 40 70 FMY 74 91 76 91 / 40 70 30 70 GIF 73 91 75 90 / 30 70 30 70 SRQ 73 89 76 88 / 30 50 40 70 BKV 71 89 73 88 / 40 60 40 70 SPG 77 88 78 86 / 40 60 40 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby