Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 301956
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
256 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

High pressure will remain in place and dominate, keeping warm, rain-
free, and humid airmass through Thursday across the forecast area.
Also, a chance for fog development during the early morning hours
will be possible the next days. Tonight lows are forecast to range
from the lower to mid 60s, north to south. Daytime highs for Tuesday
are forecast to be in the lower to mid 80s again and that pattern
should persist through Thursday. This means max temperatures are
running 8-12 degrees above average for this time of the year.

However, a change in the pattern is expected by Friday as an upper-
level trough and its associated cold front is expected to push
southward over the Florida Peninsula during Friday. As a result, a
chance of showers and some lightning storms will be possible ahead
and along the front.

After the passage of the front during the weekend, stable conditions
areawide along with another round of cooler and drier air to the
Florida Peninsula. Lows should remain from the mid 40s north to near
60 south during the weekend and early next week as surface high
pressure dominate with drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 252 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the evening. Right now, mainly
onshore winds are in place as the seabreeze develops, then becoming
light and variable during the evening hours into Tuesday. Lower cigs
with reduced visibilities are possible across TAF sites, mainly
north, during early Tuesday morning. Any fog should lift up by mid
morning (~14-15Z) allowing VFR conditions again and SE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

High pressure will be ridging across the local waters through the
week keeping warm, rain-free, and fairly pleasant boating
conditions. Seas mainly 1 foot or less. Wind flow should be light
and variable, turning onshore each afternoon near the coast. There
is the possibility of sea fog forming through the overnight and
morning hours. By Friday, next cold front should approach the
waters, with increasing southerly winds veering northerly
and increasing scattered showers ahead and along the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

High pressure dominates with warm/humid airmass over the region but
rain-free conditions prevailing. This pattern should support
southerly winds veering westerly through the afternoon staying at
less than 15 knots. Tonight, light and variable winds are expected
and that can lead to low dispersion values on Tuesday in some
areas. Relative humidity values should remain above critical
levels through the forecast period.

Another cold front is anticipated on Friday with scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms possible. Behind the front, drier and cooler
airmass will be in place through next week. At the moment, fire
weather concerns should remain low through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  66  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  86  66  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  85  65  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  81  65  79  63 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  83  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  77  66  77  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Zayas
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery


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