Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 250046
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
846 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.UPDATE...
Few minor changes made to existing forecast to account for latest
obs/trends with showers/storms over southern third of forecast
area and coastal waters, otherwise forecast remains on track.
Shower/storm coverage across southern locations will gradually
diminish overnight as greatest PW axis shifts toward eastern
peninsula and instability decreases over central sections. Showers
currently across the upper Nature Coast also expected to gradually
diminish as shortwave currently over AL/GA/TN lifts away from the
region. Light easterly winds remain in place overnight with some
locations becoming variable late, along with a few areas of low
clouds and patchy fog not out of the question. Expect lows in the
upper 60s north to low 70s central/south.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR expected through period although more recent guidance
has hinted at potential for low clouds/patchy fog after around
09Z or so for most terminals. Held off explicit mention of
MVFR/IFR conditions for this cycle but may be warranted in
subsequent cycles. Otherwise expect light/variable to easterly
winds overnight, increasing out of the southeast late morning
before shifting to south or southwest for most terminals during
afternoon...with TPA/PIE expected to gradually shift around to
northwest by late afternoon. VCSH developing during afternoon for
a few northern terminals with VCTS for PGD/FMY/RSW.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 256 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure in place to the NE and an area of low pressure over
the western Caribbean is keeping easterly flow in place across the
area. This will persist through Tuesday, with scattered mainly
afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms each day. There will be
some uncertainty with the forecast thereafter as the area of low
pressure in the western Caribbean moves into the SE Gulf. See the
Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC regarding this low pressure
area. But at this time for the local area, the upper ridge looks
to remain over/just to the east of the state, and the surface low
remaining to the west with high pressure to the NE. This will keep
a moderate SE flow at the surface across the area through mid-
week, then as the system lifts into the northern Gulf region and
then lifts out to the NE, a cold front will push through the area
on Friday. Strong high pressure to the north builds in behind it
with drier air for next Saturday, but only a slight drop in
temperatures with it. Highs will continue in the mid to upper 80s
each afternoon, with lows generally in the 70s, except upper 60s
across the north for the end of the period.

MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain generally from the east AOB 15 kts
through Tuesday. After that, there`s some uncertainty in the
forecast regarding what will happen with the area of low pressure
in the western Caribbean. See the Tropical Weather Outlook from
NHC for more information, but that area of low pressure should
gradually move into the SE Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. For now,
winds look to remain S/SE with the system to the west.

FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns. Minimum RH values are expected to remain above
critical values through the period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  88  75  89 /  10  20   0  30
FMY  73  86  73  88 /  40  60  20  50
GIF  71  87  72  88 /  10  40  10  40
SRQ  73  88  73  89 /  10  30  10  30
BKV  69  89  70  90 /   0  20   0  20
SPG  75  86  74  87 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
PREV DISCUSSION...Hubbard



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