Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
326 FXUS62 KTBW 070123 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 823 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 815 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 - Temperatures will gradually warm up through the weekend. - Significant cool down expected for early next week. - Marine hazards expected early next week behind a strong cold front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 815 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 Evening forecast remains unchanged as extensive mid/upper level cloudiness continues over the peninsula in response to a central Gulf disturbance aloft. A band of light showers developed this afternoon, spanning SW to NE across Sarasota/Manatee/far southern Hillsborough counties through Hardee/Highlands/southern Polk counties, with totals limited mainly from a few hundredths to around a tenth of an inch. Showers have largely diminished this evening, however a few sprinkles remain possible before fully tapering off. The disturbance will move east across the area on Friday into Saturday with a bit less cloudiness compared to today while also maintaining a slight chance of showers mainly south of I-4 during the afternoon. Relatively milder tonight with lows from the upper 50s north to upper 60s south, with highs Friday mostly in the lower to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1231 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 Quasi-zonal U/L pattern across the CONUS today and Friday will begin to amplify over the weekend with a deep trough developing over the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday and Monday. Main trough axis will rotate off the east coast of the U.S. Monday night and Tuesday with a resulting broad mean trough over the eastern U.S. and a broad ridge out west. An U/L disturbance over the central Gulf will advect high cloudiness over the forecast area today and tonight. At the surface, high pressure over the mid Atlantic will extend over the Florida peninsula today and will move over the western Atlantic on Friday. This will allow boundary layer winds to veer to the east and southeast, which will advect L/L moisture back across the area with dew points climbing into the mid to upper 60s...and temperatures to run several degrees above climatic normals. This will also increase the risk for fog to develop both Saturday night and Sunday night. As the U/L pattern amplifies over the weekend, a strong area of Canadian high pressure will dive south out of Canada through the plains states. The associated cold front will push across west central and southwest Florida late Sunday and Sunday night. Deep layer moisture will be limited so only a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm expected ahead of the frontal passage. Much colder drier air will advect across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday in the wake of the front...with temperatures on Monday likely holding steady or falling slowly through the day with gusty northwest winds. High temperatures will be in the lower 60s north...mid to upper 60s central...and around 70 to the lower 70s south. As the cold air rides over the warm waters of the Gulf, a large area of strato-cu will likely develop and may advect locally onshore near the coast. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle or light shower, primarily over the coastal waters. Monday night will be clear and cold with overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s north...upper 30s to lower 40s central...and mid 40s south. North winds will persist which will make it feel even colder. Potential that temps across northern areas could be a category colder if the center of the surface high sinks a bit further south allowing winds to collapse which would enhance radiational cooling. The surface high will hold over the region on Tuesday with highs ranging from around 60 north to 70 south under sunny skies. Another cold night on tap Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 30s north...lower to mid 40s central...and the upper 40s to around 50 south. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 VFR expected through the period with continued mid and upper cloudiness downstream of a disturbance aloft over the Gulf. A few showers again possible Friday, however given limited anticipated impacts have excluded mention this cycle. Winds remain light and variable to E/NE overnight before becoming E/SE late morning then increasing slightly and shifting onshore early to mid afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 Gradient will remain rather weak with east to northeast winds below cautionary levels today and Friday...becoming south to southeast Saturday and Sunday. A strong cold front will push across the waters Sunday night and Monday with winds shifting to the northwest and likely increasing to SCA levels across all of the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1231 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels through the weekend. Fire weather hazards will likely increase early next week behind a cold front as much drier air will advect over the region on gusty north to northwest winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 67 84 67 85 / 10 10 0 0 FMY 68 84 69 87 / 20 20 10 0 GIF 65 84 65 87 / 0 10 0 10 SRQ 66 82 66 84 / 10 10 0 0 BKV 59 84 59 85 / 0 10 0 10 SPG 69 80 69 81 / 10 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn