Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 241814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
214 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

A short wave trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon
crosses FL tonight and moves out over the Atlantic Mon. An upper low
over the mid Mississippi Valley tracks east becoming a trough
from the central Appalachians to the central Gulf coast Mon and is
accompanied by a cold front stretching southwestward - through
the Deep South and along the central and western Gulf coast.
Surface high pressure in the Atlantic near 30 North latitude/70
West Longitude slides east while ridging back across the state to
the Gulf of Mexico through Mon.

The atmosphere remains stable and generally dry. The short wave trough
will provide some high cloudiness through this evening. Overnight lows
near normal although the Nature Coast may be on the cool side. Highs
Monday a tad above normal. Prevailing east winds become southeast and
south Mon and remain light enough to allow an onshore shift (west or
northwest) near the coast in the afternoons.

For Tue through next Sun: The upper trough from the Appalachians
to the central Gulf coast shifts east and over the Atlantic...with
the front dropping across and out of the Gulf of Mexico and
FL...during Wed as ridging builds north from the Gulf of Mexico.
This ridge slide east to the Atlantic for the weekend as a long
wave...along with an associated cold front...sets up from the
Great Lakes to the southern plains for late next weekend.
Canadian high pressure settles in from the Great Lakes to the
western Gulf of Mexico and tracks east...slips offshore late
Fri...and continues east for the weekend while extending back into
the Gulf of Mexico. Dry air continues through next weekend except
the front provides a increase in moisture and lift with slight
chance to chance showers for Tue night and early Wed. The greatest
coverage will mainly be in the north and east where the most
moisture and lift is. Warm temperatures Tue will briefly dip mid
to late week then increase to near normal for next weekend.


4/18Z TAFs. Prevailing VFR. There is a subtle increase in
moisture although clouds stay FEW to SCT. LAL and PGD could see
limited BR AFT 09Z. SE to S winds are shifting to onshore (SW to
NW) for coastal TAF sites at 9KT or less but with a few gusts.
Winds LTAV AFT 01Z then SE AFT 14Z.


Winds/seas remain begin until a front moves through the waters Tue with
high pressure in it/s wake increasing winds/seas into caution to
advisory levels. The high pressure shifts east toward the end of the
week with diminishing winds/seas.


While some dry air lingers this afternoon the RH is above 35 percent
and will gradually increase during the next few days.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  64  80  64  78 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  62  83  64  79 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  61  81  62  81 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  61  79  62  75 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  54  80  56  77 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  68  78  66  74 /   0   0   0  10


Gulf waters...None.


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