Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KTBW 031729
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
129 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020


.DISCUSSION...

Moisture and warmer temperatures return to the area early next
week, with the GFS advertising PWATS as high as 2.0 inches. Even
if that is a bit aggressive I think scattered showers and
thunderstorms is a good bet for Sunday through Tuesday. Starting
Wednesday the chance of rain should be more focused on the north
and interior ahead of a series of very weak fronts. I will up pops
a bit above the NBM guidance but no where near as high as the 06z
and 12z MEX or 00z ECX to at least show a trend.

Otherwise the deep layer ridge over the GOM will build north then
flatten out to a more zonal flow. That translates to warm
temperatures through the period. The surface pressure pattern
will be generally weak with mostly weak high pressure over the
area with a series of weak and dying troughs affecting us towards
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

We are expecting light winds and VFR conditions the next 30
hours.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds increase early in the week, way below advisory criteria. By
mid week the winds veer to long fetch onshore. This will increase
seas some, but way below criteria. All in all it looks like very
nice boating weather.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture is slowly increasing, still we will see patchy areas with
marginally low humidities today. Light winds will keep any
warnings at bay. Humidities increase a bit more on Saturday. and
early next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  63  85  66  83 /   0   0   0  20
FMY  65  84  67  84 /   0   0   0  30
GIF  59  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  64  83  66  82 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  56  86  60  84 /   0   0   0  30
SPG  65  84  67  83 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...04/Sobien
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.