Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
870 FXUS62 KTBW 180640 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 240 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Upper level troughing and associated surface low and frontal boundary continues to push eastward through the western Atlantic. Closer to Florida, upper ridging and strong surface high pressure builds in over the southeast U.S. for the next few days. After a cool start this morning with temps in the low 40`s to mid 50`s, conditions will warm up nicely into the mid 70`s to low 80`s under mostly sunny skies. Another cool night is on tap Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with widespread 40`s and 50`s expected. Sunny skies continue on Wednesday with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 80`s and overnight lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning dropping only into the mid 50`s to around 60. By Thursday morning, the next weather system develops and moves through the Great Lakes. The associated frontal boundary extends southward through the Ohio River Valley and into the northeastern gulf. The trailing edge of this front will push through the area on Thursday producing only a slight chance of a shower, primarily over the Nature Coast. As the front moves east of Florida and dissipates late Thursday, some slightly cooler temps expected Thursday night and Friday. Overnight lows will drop into the 40`s and 50`s on Friday and Saturday mornings with daytime highs in the low to mid 70`s on Friday. High pressure builds into the gulf and will dominate the weather to close out the week and into the weekend producing mostly sunny skies and near average to above average temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. By next Monday morning, an area of low pressure moves south of the Great Lakes with a strong cold front extending southwest through the Mississippi River Valley. This front will push through the area late Monday into Tuesday bringing the next good chance of showers and storms to the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025 VFR and rain-free conditions prevail through the period. Winds around 8-12 knots with some higher gusts will prevail through the afternoon, then decreasing less than 10 knots for the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 7 am this morning as gusty northwest winds around 20 knots and seas around 5-7 feet continue over the eastern gulf waters. Conditions will improve through the day with winds diminishing below advisory level, but boaters should continue to Exercise Caution through the afternoon due to residual seas that will be slower to abate. Seas will finally abate to around 2-3 feet by the evening and continue to improve into Wednesday and early Thursday with pleasant boating conditions expected. Gusty winds and building seas can be expected once again late Thursday into Friday as another cold front moves through the eastern gulf waters. High pressure builds into the area late Friday with pleasant boating weather expected over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025 High pressure continues to dominate the weather producing rain-free conditions for the next couple of days. Dry air will also remain over the region through Wednesday with some critical humidity values in the 20-30 percent range expected for the next couple of days. The good news is that the winds will decrease below 15 mph, so a Red Flag Warning should not be needed. Humidity values increase on Thursday ahead of a weak front that will move north of the area producing a slight chance of a shower, primarily over the Nature Coast. More dry air filters into the area on Friday through Sunday, but wind speeds will remain low enough to preclude the need for a Red Flag Warning over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 55 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 81 54 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 78 49 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 80 54 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 78 45 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 76 58 77 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn