Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 151359
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
959 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.UPDATE...
Deep moisture and westerly flow once again made it a very active
early morning across parts of West Central Florida. The scattered
showers and storms will continue throughout the day with higher
chances over the next few hours in southwest Florida. No changes
needed to the forecast at this time.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 819 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021/

AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through period except for when
showers push overhead which could bring brief MVFR/IFR conditions.
VCTS will be in the forecast for most of the period with some
breaks possible overnight. Winds will remain out of the west for
the next 24 hours.

Prev Discussion... /issued 305 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Once again we see scattered to numerous showers and storms
developing over the eastern Gulf waters and moving northeast across
our coastal counties. There has been little change to the synoptic
pattern with an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. and
impressive upper ridge stretching from the southwestern U.S. to the
Northern Plains. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary resides
across the northern Gulf coast states while an area of disturbed
weather sits patiently in the Bay of Campeche.

For today, expect more of the same with deep moisture and westerly
flow over the Gulf bringing numerous showers and some storms into
the coast this morning. The rains should transition inland during
the late morning and afternoon hours with coastal areas seeing
decreasing rain chances as the day wears on.

Some changes begin to occur tonight as the surface ridge axis lifts
north into south Florida, effectively lifting the low-level
convergence boundary northward. Moisture remains plentiful enough
for continued rain chances overnight, but the long westerly fetch
will be cut off which should result in less coverage.

On Wednesday, ample moisture and continued upper-level troughing is
likely to result in higher rain chances than normal, but the overall
pattern should be more typical of summer with greatest chances
moving inland with the sea breeze during the afternoon.

The forecast from Thursday on through the weekend hinges on what
becomes of the area of disturbed weather sitting in the Bay of
Campeche. Global models are in fair agreement showing some sort of
system moving northward through the western Gulf on Thursday and
Friday while surface ridging lifts into north Florida. At this
point, there are too many variables to say what impacts, if any, are
felt this far east. Regardless of development, whatever is left is
shown to shear northeastward into the southeastern U.S. over the
weekend which could once again bring deep moisture across a portion
of the Florida peninsula into early next week. Based on the current
model solutions, the driest days could well occur over the weekend
followed by increasing moisture again as what`s left of the system
moves by to the north. Expect this portion of the forecast to change
frequently day to day until the Bay of Campeche system consolidates
enough for models to have something to track.

MARINE...
Southwest to west winds are running around 15 knots and seas at the
few reporting stations in the eastern Gulf are running between 2 and
3 feet. Do not plan to introduce headlines, but numerous showers and
scattered storms this morning will produce briefly strong wind gusts
and choppy seas. Southwesterly winds of 15 knots will gradually
shift to southerly and diminish Wednesday and Thursday as the
surface ridge of high pressure lifts northward over the waters.
Showers and storms will continue over the waters, especially during
the overnight and early morning hours. The area of disturbed weather
in the Bay of Campeche should stay put through Wednesday or so, then
lift slowly northward through the central or Western Gulf later in
the week.

FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns with high humidities and frequent showers
for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  89  80  90  78 /  60  40  50  40
FMY  90  77  90  74 /  60  40  60  40
GIF  89  76  90  74 /  70  30  60  30
SRQ  87  77  88  74 /  50  40  50  40
BKV  89  73  89  72 /  50  50  50  30
SPG  87  80  88  79 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...27/Shiveley
UPPER AIR...97/Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...97/Flannery



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