Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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393
FXUS62 KTBW 190539
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
139 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.AVIATION...
19/06Z TAFs. We are transitioning into a southeast flow regime
today with slightly drier air...compared to the last few days...
working in. Generally SCT clouds but OCNL BKN with VCNTY SHRA and
TSRA BTWN 20-01Z. Light winds shift to onshore AFT 17Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 750 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019/

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Widespread areal flooding persists across much of Levy county and
northwest Citrus county where a flood warning remains in effect
through Monday afternoon. An area of light rain is located over
the northern nature coast which is associated with a trough of
low pressure. The light rain will gradually dissipate this
evening, however showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will
redevelop over the northeast Gulf later tonight and will advect
locally onshore.

Transition has begun over the central and southern forecast area
as high pressure surface and aloft is building over the region.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms currently over the
interior and southwest Florida will produce brief heavy rain this
evening with skies becoming partly cloudy after midnight.

Surface ridge axis will gradually lift north over the central
Florida peninsula on Monday which will nudge the trough of low
pressure over north Florida a bit north. The northern nature
coast will be along the periphery of the trough with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms again possible. More typical
summertime conditions will develop across west central and
southwest Florida. Combination of drier air aloft and increasing
large scale subsidence will decrease areal coverage of storms and
will give the region an opportunity to begin drying out. Scattered
mid/late afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the region with high temperatures around 90 to the lower 90s.

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  89  75  91  76 /  40  10  20  20
FMY  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  40  40
GIF  91  74  93  74 /  40  30  40  10
SRQ  90  75  92  75 /  20  10  30  30
BKV  89  72  92  73 /  50  20  20  10
SPG  89  75  91  76 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/Rude
UPDATE...13/Oglesby



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