Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 020703
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
303 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly typical summertime pattern has set up over the region with
weak upper ridging aloft and W Atlantic high pressure ridge axis
stretching into N FL and the Deep South. These features to meander
but mainly remain in place through the long holiday weekend and
through most of next week. Expect warm and humid conditions with
E Gulf morning showers/storms then daytime heating and afternoon
sea breeze initiated scattered convection near the coast moving
inland with outflow boundary collisions for more numerous
thunderstorm coverage into the early evening hours before waning
overnight.

Abundant atmospheric moisture to produce locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds with widespread dangerous lightning as the main
threats from these storms for outdoor activities.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light E-SE winds in the morning then sea breeze winds in the late
morning to early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms increase in
coverage and intensity around 18Z Saturday, with some gusty winds
and reduced vsbys/cigs possible through around 00Z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure N of the waters will keep fairly light SE winds and
seas 2 ft or less in place through the long holiday weekend and into
next week with afternoon sea breezes. Marine hazards are possible
with scattered to numerous thunderstorms daily producing locally
higher winds and seas along with dangerous frequent lightning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Typical warm and humid summertime conditions to continue with afternoon
sea breeze thunderstorms daily. Fire weather concerns remain low through
the forecast period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  79  92  79 /  70  30  60  30
FMY  92  76  94  76 /  70  40  60  20
GIF  92  75  93  76 /  80  50  70  20
SRQ  90  75  91  76 /  60  30  50  30
BKV  92  73  92  73 /  70  30  60  30
SPG  90  79  90  79 /  60  20  50  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

RJD


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