Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS62 KTBW 081350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
850 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

...High Dispersions Expected Today And Tuesday...

A very dry subsident air mass courtesy of strong high pressure
along the eastern seaboard will support pleasant dry conditions
with ample sunshine across all of west central and southwest
Florida the remainder of today. The morning sounding came in with
a PW of 0.22 inches which breaks the daily min PW for this date
which was 0.24 inches. Similar to yesterday it will become breezy
by mid to late morning as the high pressure to the north maintains
a tight pressure gradient over the region. Despite ample sunshine
today temperatures will again remain below normal due to weak
cool air advection with highs topping out around 70 across the
Nature coast counties, and lower 70s central and south. Ongoing
forecast is great shape with no changes or updates required at
this time.


VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours. North to northeast
winds will increase to 12 to 15 knots with gusts up to 22 knots
possible after 15Z. Northeast winds will diminish to 6 to 8 knots
after 23Z tonight.


Surface high pressure north of the Gulf waters continues to
maintain advisory level winds over the central and southern
near and offshore waters early this morning, and will maintain
Small Craft headlines for these waters through 11 AM. Thereafter
winds should diminish some through the afternoon with Cautionary
headlines sufficing. As for the remainder of the week high
pressure will remain in control as it moves east into the Atlantic
with moderate northeast winds becoming east with nocturnal surges
into the Cautionary range a good bet each day during the evening
and overnight time periods. Current forecast is on track with only
subtle headline changes expected in the next update around 11 AM.


Very dry air will continue across all of west central and
southwest Florida today. The very dry airmass will support
long durations of humidity values below 35 percent across Levy
county during the afternoon, however with sustained winds
forecast to remain below 15 mph and low ERC`s Red Flag conditions
are not expected. Across the remainder of the region pockets of
low humidity values close to 35 percent will be possible over
northern and central interior zones during the afternoon. These
humidity values combined with elevated ERC`s (28-34) and possible
brief sustained winds around 15 mph will support elevated fire
weather conditions with some instantaneous Red Flag conditions
possible. Will monitor temperature/dew points and winds the
remainder of the day and will issue a Red Flag Warning if
conditions warrant. Dry air will remain over the region through
mid week, but humidity values are forecast to remain above
critical levels. A slow increase in moisture is expected late in
the week and into next weekend. In addition to the dry air
moderate 20 foot winds and transport winds combined with high
mixing heights (in the 4-5kft range) will support high dispersion
across the region the remainder of today and again on Tuesday.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.



UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...97/Flannery is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.