Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 061000
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
500 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...A Wet Day Ahead With Deteriorating Sea and Surf Conditions...

Current-Tonight... A frontal boundary is currently situated across
southern central Florida with the associated low pressure center
located over the eastern GOM. Radar shows light reflectivity values
across the northern portions of the area, however, it`s assumed to
be virga given the dry mid-level air still in place and the absence
of reported rainfall at local observation stations. Current
temperatures are in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area and are
expected to drop a few more degrees through the morning hours.

As the mid-level trough pushes east through northern and central FL
this afternoon/evening, overrunning precipitation will develop
mainly north of the surface boundary. The boundary will slowly drag
south-southeast across central and southern Florida through this
evening. Increasing surface convergence and gulf moisture will help
increase the coverage in showers and bring widespread rain to the
entire County Warning Area by the late morning hours. Light to
moderate rain is expected to persist through the early overnight
hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over areas near Lake
Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Only general thunderstorms are
expected with minimal CAPE values and low lapse rates forecast.
Total rainfall amounts will likely range from 0.50" to 1.00" with
over an inch in some locations. The local air mass will be rain
cooled with highs only reaching the mid to upper 60s in areas to the
north. With rain not expected to reach the central and southern
areas until later in the day, highs are forecast to reach the lower
to mid 70s.

Rain will slowly diminish as the shortwave pushes east overnight.
The area will finally begin to dry out by early Sunday morning.
Slightly cooler temperatures will follow behind the system with lows
dropping into the upper 40s north to low 60s far SE.

Next Week...A few showers may briefly linger along the Treasure
Coast early Sun morning, but will quickly move offshore and then
well away from the coast by early afternoon as strong high pressure
builds into central FL behind the rapidly departing surface wave.
Cooler, drier air will surge southward on N-NNE winds, which could
gust to 25-30 mph along the coast. Max temps will only reach the
U60s-70F, with L70s for the Lake O/Treasure Coast regions.

A broad, trailing short wave trough slides SE across the GOMEX and
FL Straits/Cuba Mon-early Tue with nil impact on our local wx.
Thereafter, a mid level ridge will build from the GOMEX into FL
through the end of the week, with some of the guidance (ECM/CMC)
suggesting that a short wave trough will flatten its northern flank
by either Fri or next weekend. At the surface, the strong post-
frontal high pressure ridge will build from the SE into the western
Atlantic through mid week, slowly weakening by the end of the week.
A "back door" type cool front may approach the area by Sat-Sat night
as suggested by the aforementioned models, however the 00Z GFS keeps
the ridge, both surface and aloft strong during that time frame.

The forecast remains dry with temps gradually warming from slightly
below normal Mon-Tue to above normal from Thu onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
The TAF period will start off with VFR conditions before ceilings
lower throughout the morning and afternoon hours. MVFR in clouds and
precip will move in by the afternoon hours as a shortwave moves
through northern/central FL. Winds will be from the north-northeast,
mainly from 10-15kts through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight...As the surface boundary pushes through the area,
increasing onshore flow is expected throughout the day, up to 15-20
knots. This will gradually build seas to 5-7 feet offshore today and
then increasing to 7-10ft overnight. SCA will go into effect this
morning well offshore Volusia/Brevard Counties, expanding to near
the coast this evening-overnight.

Sunday-Wednesday...Very hazardous boating/beach conditions continue
Sun into Sun evening, gradually easing near shore with the pressure
gradient becoming a little less tight as winds veer to NE Mon and
ENE Tue-Wed. Still, winds only look to decrease slightly...from 20-
25kt to 15-17kt north and 18-20kt south. Significant lengthening of
the onshore fetch will generate a swell that keeps seas elevated, to
at least 6, possibly as high as 7ft from around the Cape southward.
For now, the SCA has been extended into Tue, however this is likely
to be extended further, through most of next week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  52  65  47 /  90  80   0   0
MCO  70  53  69  47 /  80  50   0   0
MLB  71  57  70  52 /  70  50  10   0
VRB  74  58  71  53 /  70  50  20   0
LEE  66  50  68  45 /  80  50   0   0
SFB  67  52  68  47 /  80  60   0   0
ORL  70  54  70  49 /  80  50   0   0
FPR  75  58  72  54 /  70  60  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Tuesday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Fehling/Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Cristaldi


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