Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220754
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
354 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Currently...Majority of model guidance indicating a band of showers
and isolated storms setting up w/in an area of deeper moisture and
weak low level convergence over the waters south of the Cape. Latest
radar/satellite imagery already indicating this is beginning to
occur, with local WRF and HRRR showing this activity pushing onshore
roughly between Stuart and Melbourne through early this morning. Any
persistent showers or isolated storms may lead to localized rainfall
amounts up to an inch or two along coastal areas of the northern
Treasure Coast/southern Brevard County depending on where this band
settles. Additional isolated to scattered showers will continue to
push onshore along the Volusia County coast through daybreak.

Today-Tonight...Band of showers and isolated storms pushing onshore
from the northern Treasure Coast to southern Brevard County may
persist through the morning. This will continue the potential for
locally heavy rainfall for coastal locations in this area. Models
then have this band weakening, with isolated to scattered showers
and storms forming into late morning along the developing east coast
sea breeze and shifting inland through the afternoon. Low level
onshore flow will concentrate greatest convective coverage during
the afternoon across the interior, especially Osceola and Okeechobee
counties where greater moisture will reside. Then as much of this
activity shifts west of the area into the evening, redeveloping
scattered showers and isolated storms are expected over the coastal
waters. Latest models focus much of this activity pushing onshore,
from the northern Treasure Coast into Brevard County overnight, so
have kept highest rain chances up to 40 percent across this region.

Onshore flow will keep highs along the coast in the upper 80s over
much of the area, except low 90s near to northwest of the I-4
corridor. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 70s for most
locations across east central Florida.

Sunday...The GFS continues to show a band of high moisture affecting
the area.  East flow should be pushing some showers/storms ashore
early in the morning, then by afternoon the bulk of activity is
forecast to shift to the interior.  MOS PoPs are generally 50% along
the coast, except 35% at Daytona, and 50-60% across the interior.
The previous forecast was close to these values and will make
only slight adjustments.

Monday-Friday...Low pressure currently just south of Bermuda is
still shown moving west beneath Atlantic ridge and curving north
towards the Carolinas Wed while gradually weakening into an open
wave.

Onshore flow will persist on Mon, then diminish Tue as the weakening
low/trough approaches the southeast coast.  The Atlantic high
pressure ridge will rebuild across the peninsula on Wed in the
wake of the low/trough. This will provide a more southeast wind
flow which persists into Thu before the ridge nudges back north
and a light easterly flow resumes on Fri.

A weak inverted trough embedded in easterly flow is forecast to
traverse the area on Mon and keep moisture/PoPs above normal
(40-50%). A weak southern extension of the low/trough moving
across the waters towards the Carolinas may affect the local area
on Tue and keep moisture at or above normal with PoPs continuing
40-50%, except 20-30% in the far north. The models then show
moisture decreasing Wed-Fri as a mid level high pressure ridge
builds over the region. This should trend PoPs to normal or below
(20-30%) by late week.

Little change in temperatures is indicated. The onshore flow will
continue to keep min temps mostly in the mid 70s with a few upper
70s along the coast. High temps will be a few degrees above
normal, mostly in the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s
inland.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and isolated storms pushing onshore
along the Volusia coast and from KFPR-KMLB will produce tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions through the early morning hours. This activity
will weaken into late morning, with isolated to scattered showers
and storms transitioning into inland areas through the afternoon.
Greatest coverage of this activity and best potential for tempo
cig/vis reductions looks to be near to south of KMCO-KISM where
greatest moisture will reside.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...A gentle to moderate easterly breeze will persist
across the coastal waters, with speeds up to 10-15 knots. Seas will
range from 3-4 feet nearshore and up to 4-5 feet offshore through
tonight.

Sunday...High pressure to the north will continue to provide an
easterly wind flow.  Speeds look close to 10 knots but a northeast
swell is shown keeping seas elevated 4-5 feet.  The models again
show a band of higher moisture over the waters in the morning
producing scattered-numerous showers and isolated storms,
especially from Cape Canaveral to the Treasure Coast. Drying is
indicated over the waters in the afternoon through the overnight.

Monday-Wednesday...East flow will persist on Mon, likely at 10-15
knots as a weak surge pushes across the waters. A 40-50% coverage of
showers with a slight chance of storms is indicated.  Onshore flow
should weaken Tue, but an inverted trough is shown producing a
greater than normal coverage of showers/storms, especially from the
Cape southward.  On Wed, the winds will become southeast/south
around 10 knots and drying should decrease the coverage of
showers/storms. Seas through the period will stay 4-5 feet due to
a persistent northeast swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  87  76 /  30  20  40  20
MCO  90  75  89  74 /  40  20  60  10
MLB  88  77  88  76 /  50  40  50  20
VRB  89  75  88  74 /  50  40  50  30
LEE  92  74  90  74 /  40  20  50  10
SFB  91  75  89  74 /  30  20  50  10
ORL  91  76  89  74 /  40  20  50  10
FPR  88  74  88  74 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Weitlich
LONG TERM....Lascody


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