197
FXUS62 KMLB 160832
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
432 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

- Increasingly hot conditions forecast for East Central Florida
  this weekend and early next week with widespread low to mid 90s
  and near record high temperatures.

- Peak heat indices forecast to reach 100-105 this weekend into
  early next week. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will affect
  individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without
  effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

- Very low rain chances (10% or less) through next Wednesday.
  Drought conditions may worsen/expand as a result.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Today...A mid-level ridge (591-592dm) over the Gulf will nose NE
across the FL peninsula and result in rising heights and increased
subsidence. In the low levels, Atlantic high pressure ridge axis
will remain across south central FL, promoting a light offshore
wind flow to start the day, turning onshore behind the sea breeze
this afternoon. Overall dry, subsident airmass will limit even
fair weather cumulus from developing though there will be
cirrus/cirrostratus streaming SE. These high clouds will be pretty
thin so they should not affect max temps much. Widespread max
temps in the mid 90s across interior sections as well as inland
portions of the coastal counties. Even coastal Volusia will reach
the mid 90s before a delayed sea breeze develops. This will put
Daytona Beach in a good position to equal (or even exceed) its
record high of 94F (see below). Heat indices will also be on the
climb with peak afternoon values in the upper 90s/near 100.

Sat-Wed...The deep layer ridging will persist producing hot
temperatures and rain chances no higher than 10 percent.
Widespread mid 90s will continue over the interior with a few
upper 90s possible with potential for one or more record highs to
be equaled or even exceeded. Coastal sections will hold in the
lower 90s but there is a better chance for a more delayed sea
breeze along the Volusia coast where the offshore flow is a bit
stronger so Daytona Beach may again approach their record high on
Sat (See below). Peak heat indices are forecast to reach 100 to
105 each day inland from the coast. Widespread coverage of
Moderate HeatRisk are forecast with Major HeatRisk impacts
possible Orlando metro Sun-Tue. It is worth noting HeatRisk takes
into account the time of year, so while these temperatures and
heat indices are not unusual for our summertime, they are well
above normal for mid May and folks are not at all acclimated to
it. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat,
especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration.

Thu...A weak cool front is forecast to bring the next small
chance (20-30%) for measurable rainfall on Thu. If timing becomes
faster, may need to move these low rain chances to Wed but did not
want to show 2 days of rain chances per NBM. Both GFS and ECMWF
show a return to onshore flow late next week behind this front
which would bring max temps down to more seasonable mid to upper
80s even if not much rainfall materializes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain nearly stationary
across south central Florida, roughly across Lake Okeechobee and
northernmost Bahamas, through the weekend and into early next
week. This pattern will produce largely favorable boating
conditions with a light offshore (W-SW) flow each morning shifting
E-SE increasing 10-14 knots near the coast behind the sea breeze
each afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore through
Sat then 1-2 FT all waters Sun-Tue. Chances for precipitation
continue to be very low during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some models continue to
indicate the potential for patchy fog to form, mainly NW of I-4,
from 09-13Z. However, confidence remains too low to mention in
TAF. Light and variable winds will become W/SW around 5-8 KT by
mid morning. The east coast sea breeze will once again form in the
afternoon, backing the winds E/SE along the coast and increasing
to 10-14 KT(KMLB southward will shift earlier as the sea breeze
forms and moves inland quicker across the south). Winds will then
become light and variable once again by 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Soils will continue to dry out next several days with no rain in
the forecast and temperatures reaching the low and mid 90s daily.
In addition, relatively dry air will produce min RH values of
30-35 percent over the interior today and Saturday but winds will
be light (10 mph or less) so conditions will not reach Red Flag
criteria. Winds will turn onshore each afternoon behind the sea
breeze, although its inland penetration will be slow and onset
delayed especially north of the Cape. Min RH values close
to the coast south of the Cape will hold near 50 percent.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Record highs the next 4 days (Fri-Mon):

DAB 16-May  94 1994
LEE 16-May  95 1985
SFB 16-May  97 1967
MCO 16-May  99 1922
MLB 16-May  95 1995
VRB 16-May  95 1995
FPR 16-May  94 2022

DAB 17-May  95 1963
LEE 17-May  96 1991
SFB 17-May  96 2001
MCO 17-May  97 1915
MLB 17-May  97 1963
VRB 17-May  95 2023
FPR 17-May  95 2008

DAB 18-May  97 1995
LEE 18-May  98 1996
SFB 18-May  95 2024
MCO 18-May  97 1930
MLB 18-May  96 1995
VRB 18-May  96 2024
FPR 18-May  98 1995

DAB 19-May  94 1995
LEE 19-May  94 1991
SFB 19-May  97 1960
MCO 19-May  98 1908
MLB 19-May  95 1995
VRB 19-May  95 1995
FPR 19-May  97 1995


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  69  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  91  72  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  91  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  94  70  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  96  70  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  96  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  91  70  92  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Watson