Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 251926
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
326 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...A trailing trough axis from low pressure
developing offshore from east central Florida is allowing for
northeast low level flow behind the boundary and combined with
some dry air in the mid levels very limited convection at mid
afternoon. Isolated shower activity will move southwest across
the interior into early evening before diminishing. Dry weather is
then expected overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Friday (modified previous)...The Atlantic mid level ridge
builds westward across SOFL Mon-Tue, then retrogrades farther west
into the GOMEX Wed-Thu, where it gets absorbed into the eastern
lobe of the Sonoran ridge. This leaves a slight weakness in the
h50 height fields over FL on Thu-Fri.

At the surface, departing low pressure system well offshore the SE
CONUS (currently an 80 pct chc to become a tropical cyclone per NHC
2PM TWOAT) lifts NE offshore the mid Atlantic/NE CONUS. The weak
col region over ECFL Mon transitions to freshening westerlies Tue-
Wed as a cool front sags into the deep south. By Thu, the tail end
of this front morphs into a broad low/inverted surface trough
over Florida, which gradually retrogrades westward into the GOMEX
by Friday night.

Sufficient moisture remains in place to support diurnal shower and
T-storm activity throughout the week. Weak H85-H50 steering flow on
Mon will increase out of the west Tue into Wed, then weaken again
by Thu-Fri. POPs this week remain on the high side of normal (50-60)
and these numbers may need to be nudged upward Thu-Fri should the
aforementioned surface trough develop overhead as progged. Temps
look to remain near to slightly above late August norms through the
period.

Next weekend...While the global model solutions show a large eastern
CONUS trough developing at days 7-8, the ECM is much more amplified
with it. The GFS is weaker, while showing a large TUTT low moving
into the Bahamas from the SE. Both models show the Atlantic surface
ridge axis north of central Florida, with either east or SE flow
developing. Best bet this far out is to go with climo temps/POPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.  Thunder chances appear low
across the interior sites so have only VCSH mentioned through early
this evening as isolated to scattered showers will continue to
develop. Except for SUA, precip mention has been left out for
coastal terminals as any showers that develop are expected to remain
inland.  There is also a small chance of having to add VCTS at SUA
later this afternoon but current thinking is that the storms will
remain to the south of SUA.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...The trof extending from the low pressure area well
offshore will remain near Jupiter Inlet or the far southern
marine area overnight. NE/N winds behind the boundary will be 5-10
knots across the nrn waters and 5 knots across the central and
south. Seas generally 2 ft near shore and south and up to 3-4 ft
offshore from Volusia county.

Monday-Thursday...Light/chaotic flow on Mon will become westerly on
Tue-Wed, the back more southerly on Thu as a surface trough develops
over the peninsula. Onshore winds will develop near the coast each
afternoon due to the ECSB circ. There is the potential for strong
offshore moving T-storms Tue and especially Wed. Winds remain around
10kt or less with seas 2-3FT, but slightly lower close to the
coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  75  90 /  10  40  30  50
MCO  77  93  76  93 /  10  60  50  60
MLB  77  91  75  90 /  10  50  40  50
VRB  75  91  74  91 /  10  60  30  50
LEE  77  94  75  91 /  20  60  50  50
SFB  76  93  76  94 /  10  60  40  60
ORL  77  94  77  93 /  10  60  50  60
FPR  74  91  74  91 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Volkmer/Glitto/Combs


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