602
FXUS62 KMLB 210653
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
253 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

- High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at all
  central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is
  strongly discouraged!

- While most locations will remain dry, isolated coastal showers,
  with scattered inland showers and storms in the afternoons and
  evenings, continue through the weekend.

- High temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, but heat
  index values climb to near or above 100 degrees this weekend
  into next week, as moisture increases.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Today-Tonight...Same story, different day, across east central
Florida. High pressure lingers off of the Carolina coast today,
maintaining east to southeast flow over the local area, while a
mid/upper level low spins aloft near the Bahamas. Isolated
showers cannot be ruled out over the Atlantic waters, drifting
onshore occasionally into coastal areas through this morning.
However, most convection will form along the dominant east coast
sea breeze this afternoon west I-95, then drift into western
portions of the peninsula into this evening. Overall, most will
remain dry, with low PoPs (20-30%) area-wide. Any convection
diminishes this evening, though isolated showers will remain
possible along the coast overnight. Highs today continue in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the 70s to lower
80s.

Friday-Thursday...Overall, a rinse and repeat forecast into early
next week. The surface ridge off of the Carolina coast begins to
push southward towards the Bahamas late in the period. Meanwhile,
the mid/upper level low moves eastward Friday into this weekend,
with ridging building aloft over the Florida peninsula by Memorial
Day. Thus, expect east to southeast flow to continue, increasing
to 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20-25 mph, each afternoon as the sea
breeze develops and pushes inland. However, will need to monitor
a slight increase in onshore flow Monday into Tuesday, as the
ridge fends off a cold front over the central US and flattens.
High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s continue, with
overnight lows in the 70s and even lower 80s at the coast.
Although, will see heat indices creep into the upper 90s to lower
100s as moisture increases this weekend.

Onshore flow will continue to lead to a dominant east coast sea
breeze, with the highest chances for showers and storms over the
western half of the peninsula. However, will still see isolated to
scattered showers and storms develop along the sea breeze in the
afternoons, before pushing westward into the evenings. PoPs 20-30%
through Friday increase slightly to up to 40% this weekend, as
moisture builds (PWATs 1.6-1.8"). At the coast, isolated,
onshore-moving showers overnight and during the mornings look to
continue through at least Friday, though will likely remain
possible through the period. Regardless, chances overall remain
low, so most areas will likely remain dry through at least mid-
week next week. Main threats with any storms will be gusty winds,
lightning strikes, and brief heavy downpours, though warming 500
mb temperatures will limit the strong storm threat this weekend
and into next week.

Models (ECMWF) begin to diverge somewhat into late next week,
with some hints at a pattern change, possibly leading to wetter
conditions. There is plenty of time to watch and, notably, some
models (GFS) maintain ridging in one form or another over the
local area through 240 hrs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail through the
weekend, as high pressure lingers over the western Atlantic.
East to southeast winds remain around 10-15 kts, with gusts near
20-25 kts along the coast behind the sea breeze. Modestly
increasing moisture will support at least isolated showers
through the weekend. However, a majority of convection will
remain over land areas along the sea breeze in the afternoons,
drifting westward through the evenings. Seas 2-4 ft persist into
the weekend.

Into early next week, winds look to increase slightly as the
ridge begins to drift southward, leading to poor conditions at
times, with seas up to 5 ft offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Will continue to monitor for a few showers along the coastal
terminals this morning but probabilities are too low for
inclusion. Otherwise persistent ESE flow with VFR except near a
few afternoon and evening showers and storms developing over the
interior. MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE will need to be watched for nearby TS
late today, but confidence precludes a TEMPO for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  75  89  76 /  20  10  20   0
MCO  91  74  91  75 /  30  10  30   0
MLB  88  79  88  79 /  20  10  20   0
VRB  88  78  89  79 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  92  75  92  75 /  30  30  30  20
SFB  92  74  92  75 /  30  10  30   0
ORL  91  75  91  75 /  30  10  30   0
FPR  88  77  88  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Heil