Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 200756
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
355 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic
shifts south of central Florida today as frontal trough settles
across the southeast states. This allow low level winds to become
W/SW across northern areas, advecting in higher moisture and
bringing a return of rain chances across areas along the I-4
corridor westward for this afternoon/evening. Offshore flow will
still be weak enough for east coast sea breeze to develop north of
the Cape, but will be slower to form and move inland then for
coastal areas farther south.

Late day boundary collisions will be favored near to northwest of I-
4 and across areas west of Okeechobee County, which will lead to the
best potential for scattered showers and storms. Have therefore
continued highest rain chances across this region (up to 30-40%),
and kept PoPs below mentionable levels from Melbourne southward
across the Treasure Coast where drier air will prevail and sea
breeze will move inland faster. Lingering mid level dry air may
allow a few storms to produce strong wind gusts and frequent
lightning, especially where any boundary collisions occur across the
northern interior.

Mostly to partly sunny skies to start the day will again allow for
sufficient daytime heating for highs to reach the upper 80s to low
90s along the coast to low-mid 90s over the interior.

Thursday-Sunday...The stout H50 ridge over the top of Florida will
weaken Friday-Saturday as a closed low moves southeast and then east
across the mid MS and OH valleys. the ridge will rebuild across the
SE CONUS and Florida over the latter part of this weekend. Surface/
low level ridge will respond by shifting overs south FL and the Keys
through Saturday, before drifting back north toward Lake Okeechobee
on Sunday. Coupled with increasing mean layer moisture and much
weaker mid level drying/capping, the flow pattern will favor the
eastern side of the peninsula for diurnal convection. with the north
and interior CWA having the highest POPs (50 Thu/60 Fri-Sun) with a
more even distribution in rain chances Sunday as the low level flow
weakens. Thursday will be the hottest day (L-M90s), with temps
dropping back closer to their normal readings of near 90 along the
coast and L90s inland. Mins in the L70s.

Monday-Thursday...The mid level ridge over the SE CONUS ridge is
progged to very slowly weaken, with some suggestions of a weak mid
level vort lobe dropping south around its eastern flank into or a
little east of Florida Wednesday-Thursday. Regardless, a weak low
level flow pattern, typical of summer, is expected, with scattered
afternoon-early evening diurnal convection each day, and near climo
temps.

 &&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Rain chances return for this afternoon and
evening, mainly across northern portions of east central Florida
where greater low level moisture will advect in from the west. Tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible with any iso/sct shra/tsra that
develop into the afternoon and through early evening along the I-4
corridor westward. For now have included VCTS in the TAFs for
preferred timeframe of convection across this area.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...Ridge axis shifts south of the area today,
with a light to gentle S/SW breeze becoming S/SE into the afternoon
and increasing up to 10-15 knots as sea breeze forms and shifts
inland. Winds will then veer to the SW into tonight, becoming 5-10
knots nearshore and remaining up to 10-15 knots offshore. Seas will
range from 1-2 feet nearshore and up to 2-3 feet offshore.

A few storms may push offshore of coastal areas north of the Cape
this afternoon and early evening producing brief gusty winds.
Otherwise, greatest convective coverage should remain across inland
areas.

Thursday-Sunday...A rather benign wind-sea pattern will prevail over
the MAOR, outside of afternoon and early evening storms, which will
be the main concern for mariners through his weekend. The chance
for late day offshore-moving storms will be progressively higher the
farther north once heads, especially on Friday-Saturday.

Outside of storms, expect a gentle to moderate offshore breeze,
becoming onshore along the immediate coast (mainly south of SIPF1),
mainly on Thursday and again Saturday, the two days in which the
offshore gradient will be slightly weaker. Seas around 1FT near
shore and 2FT offshore,  perhaps reaching 3FT offshore Volusia
County at times. However, wave model guidance has shown a persistent
high bias toward this end so far this summer.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The St Johns River Above Lake Harney near Geneva is forecast to
remain above Action Stage and below flood stage as it levels out
through late this week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  92  76 /  30  20  50  30
MCO  93  75  94  76 /  30  30  50  20
MLB  90  75  93  76 /  10  10  40  30
VRB  90  74  92  74 /  10  10  40  30
LEE  93  75  93  76 /  40  30  50  20
SFB  94  75  94  76 /  30  30  50  20
ORL  93  75  94  76 /  30  30  50  20
FPR  90  72  93  74 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Weitlich
LONG TERM...Cristaldi


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