


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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197 FXUS62 KMLB 160832 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 432 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 - Increasingly hot conditions forecast for East Central Florida this weekend and early next week with widespread low to mid 90s and near record high temperatures. - Peak heat indices forecast to reach 100-105 this weekend into early next week. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will affect individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. - Very low rain chances (10% or less) through next Wednesday. Drought conditions may worsen/expand as a result. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Today...A mid-level ridge (591-592dm) over the Gulf will nose NE across the FL peninsula and result in rising heights and increased subsidence. In the low levels, Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain across south central FL, promoting a light offshore wind flow to start the day, turning onshore behind the sea breeze this afternoon. Overall dry, subsident airmass will limit even fair weather cumulus from developing though there will be cirrus/cirrostratus streaming SE. These high clouds will be pretty thin so they should not affect max temps much. Widespread max temps in the mid 90s across interior sections as well as inland portions of the coastal counties. Even coastal Volusia will reach the mid 90s before a delayed sea breeze develops. This will put Daytona Beach in a good position to equal (or even exceed) its record high of 94F (see below). Heat indices will also be on the climb with peak afternoon values in the upper 90s/near 100. Sat-Wed...The deep layer ridging will persist producing hot temperatures and rain chances no higher than 10 percent. Widespread mid 90s will continue over the interior with a few upper 90s possible with potential for one or more record highs to be equaled or even exceeded. Coastal sections will hold in the lower 90s but there is a better chance for a more delayed sea breeze along the Volusia coast where the offshore flow is a bit stronger so Daytona Beach may again approach their record high on Sat (See below). Peak heat indices are forecast to reach 100 to 105 each day inland from the coast. Widespread coverage of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast with Major HeatRisk impacts possible Orlando metro Sun-Tue. It is worth noting HeatRisk takes into account the time of year, so while these temperatures and heat indices are not unusual for our summertime, they are well above normal for mid May and folks are not at all acclimated to it. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Thu...A weak cool front is forecast to bring the next small chance (20-30%) for measurable rainfall on Thu. If timing becomes faster, may need to move these low rain chances to Wed but did not want to show 2 days of rain chances per NBM. Both GFS and ECMWF show a return to onshore flow late next week behind this front which would bring max temps down to more seasonable mid to upper 80s even if not much rainfall materializes. && .MARINE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain nearly stationary across south central Florida, roughly across Lake Okeechobee and northernmost Bahamas, through the weekend and into early next week. This pattern will produce largely favorable boating conditions with a light offshore (W-SW) flow each morning shifting E-SE increasing 10-14 knots near the coast behind the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore through Sat then 1-2 FT all waters Sun-Tue. Chances for precipitation continue to be very low during this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some models continue to indicate the potential for patchy fog to form, mainly NW of I-4, from 09-13Z. However, confidence remains too low to mention in TAF. Light and variable winds will become W/SW around 5-8 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze will once again form in the afternoon, backing the winds E/SE along the coast and increasing to 10-14 KT(KMLB southward will shift earlier as the sea breeze forms and moves inland quicker across the south). Winds will then become light and variable once again by 00Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Soils will continue to dry out next several days with no rain in the forecast and temperatures reaching the low and mid 90s daily. In addition, relatively dry air will produce min RH values of 30-35 percent over the interior today and Saturday but winds will be light (10 mph or less) so conditions will not reach Red Flag criteria. Winds will turn onshore each afternoon behind the sea breeze, although its inland penetration will be slow and onset delayed especially north of the Cape. Min RH values close to the coast south of the Cape will hold near 50 percent. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Record highs the next 4 days (Fri-Mon): DAB 16-May 94 1994 LEE 16-May 95 1985 SFB 16-May 97 1967 MCO 16-May 99 1922 MLB 16-May 95 1995 VRB 16-May 95 1995 FPR 16-May 94 2022 DAB 17-May 95 1963 LEE 17-May 96 1991 SFB 17-May 96 2001 MCO 17-May 97 1915 MLB 17-May 97 1963 VRB 17-May 95 2023 FPR 17-May 95 2008 DAB 18-May 97 1995 LEE 18-May 98 1996 SFB 18-May 95 2024 MCO 18-May 97 1930 MLB 18-May 96 1995 VRB 18-May 96 2024 FPR 18-May 98 1995 DAB 19-May 94 1995 LEE 19-May 94 1991 SFB 19-May 97 1960 MCO 19-May 98 1908 MLB 19-May 95 1995 VRB 19-May 95 1995 FPR 19-May 97 1995 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 69 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 96 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 91 72 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 91 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 94 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 96 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 96 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Watson