Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 241847
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
247 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.DISCUSSION...

...Heat Advisory In Effect Through 5PM Across Portions Of East
Central Florida...

...Pattern Change into This Weekend as Rain Chances Return Once
Again...

Rest of Today-Tonight...It has been an oppressively hot day across
east central Florida, with heat indices reaching 108-113 at the
airports along and north of the I-4 corridor and 105-107 along the
Space and Treasure Coasts prior to 2pm.

Relief is on the way, though, with showers and storms finally
beginning to push southward from northern Florida, while the sea
breeze spurs convection north of Melbourne, as of around 230pm.
Activity is expected to increase through mid-afternoon, becoming
scattered to numerous through sunset. Highest chances look to be
along and north of the I-4 corridor (around 70%), with 40-60%
southward into the northern Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County.
The lowest chances will be across coastal St Lucie and Martin
Counties, at around 30% there. All of east central Florida
remains under a "Marginal" risk for severe weather today, with
strong gusts to around 50-60mph possible in the strongest cells.
This is supported by the XMR 15Z sounding, which found DCAPE
values of around 1350J/kg, providing ground truth to the forecast
soundings from this morning. Slow and erratic storm motions will
also support the possibility of locally heavy rainfall, with up to
1-3" falling in a short period of time. This could cause minor
flooding concerns of poor drainage and low lying areas. Small
hail also cannot be ruled out, though 500mb temperatures around
-6.5C do not suggest large hail formation.

Though slow moving and erratic, activity will generally move SSW
through the afternoon and into the evening hours. At least a
slight chance will persist area-wide through around midnight.
Then, any lingering showers and storms will drift into the western
half of the peninsula or offshore. Once this happens, dry
conditions are expected for the remainder of the overnight hours.
Overnight lows in the low to mid-70s.

This Weekend (modified previous)...Strong mid level ridge
remains anchored across the south central and SE CONUS. On its
eastern periphery, a short wave trough drops southward along and
offshore the eastern seaboard Sat, nosing SSW across Florida and
the Bahamas by Sun night. This will very slowly nudge the surface
trough southward across central FL, where it will stall over the
southern half of the CWA Sun into Sun night, as it runs into the
strengthening western Atlantic ridge. Deep moisture remains in
place Sat, then shifts slightly toward the southern/western
peninsula Sun-Sun night, as the trough begins to wash out.

Numerous to widespread showers/storms areawide (70-80 POPs) remain
forecast for Sat, with a much more noticeable gradient in POPs Sun,
ranging from 40 NE to 60 central/70-80 south. Slow southward storm
motion will lead to a concern for locally heavy rainfall (1-3"+)
both afternoons. Max temps will be much lower given much higher
precip coverage/earlier onset. U80s coast/L90s inland with mins in
the L70s.

Next Week (previous)...A weak inverted trough near SEFL drifts
slowly W-NW across FL Mon-early Tue, before getting pushed W-NW
over the GOMEX Wed as SE flow gradually becomes established on the
SW flank of the re-strengthening Atlantic western Atlantic ridge
through the end of the week. This pattern should lend itself to
slightly higher chance for diurnal convection over the
interior/western peninsula compared to the coast, with nocturnal
shower chances along the coast (mainly Brevard south). Have
continued to trend daytime POPs below the NBM, especially near the
coast, as these numbers look too high for the advertised pattern.
Persistence temps with maxes U80s coast/L90s inland, and mins in
the L-M70s inland/M-U70s coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Convective impacts expected at all east central Florida terminals
this afternoon and evening. Numerous thunderstorms advancing
southward through DAB/LEE/SFB/MCO/ISM, and scattered thunderstorms
developing along the sea breeze near TIX/MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA. Frequent
IFR/LIFR VIS and MVFR/IFR CIG impacts expected through 23Z from MLB
northward. Inland progression of the sea breeze should limit impacts
at Treasure Coast terminal to just occasional MVFR/IFR. Storms
mostly clearing around 00Z, but showers may linger from MLB
southward towards 04Z. VFR conditions resume for the night after
storm clear, and through the morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Rest of Today-Tonight...Lingering scattered showers and storms
from afternoon convection is expected to push offshore into the
coastal Atlantic waters this evening through the overnight hours,
mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. Activity will then continue
overnight, as a weak trough settles into the local area. Wind
gusts in excess of 35kts will be possible in the strongest
convection prior to sunset. Onshore winds around 10-12kts
diminishing towards sunrise. Seas 1-2ft, with up to 3ft possible
from the Cape northward.

Saturday-Tuesday...High pressure offshore the SE U.S. pushes a weak
trough southward into central FL this weekend where it will stall.
Then, get slowly nudged westward into the GOMEX ahead of a
strengthening western Atlantic ridge. Expect a marked increase in
the coverage of marine showers and storms near/along the stalled
boundary this weekend into Tuesday. Otherwise, developing
onshore/ east winds slowly veer SE through the period, with speeds
no more than 10-15kt. Seas 2-3ft near shore and 3-4ft offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  75  89 /  50  50  20  40
MCO  75  92  75  90 /  50  70  30  60
MLB  75  89  76  88 /  50  50  30  60
VRB  73  90  73  89 /  40  50  40  70
LEE  75  90  74  90 /  40  70  30  50
SFB  75  90  74  89 /  50  60  30  50
ORL  77  92  77  91 /  50  70  30  60
FPR  73  89  73  88 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal Volusia-
     Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Southern Brevard-Inland
     Volusia-Northern Lake-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Lake.

AM...None.
&&

$$

FORECAST...Leahy
RADAR/DSS....Rodriguez
AVIATION...Haley


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