Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 212003
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
403 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Thanks to a high pressure building in from the west into
the Florida peninsula, weather conditions will remain fair, with
clear skies and no precipitation expected. However, humidities and
sea conditions will be the ones to watch for tonight and tomorrow
(see Marine section below). Dew points will continue to remain
low as dry air filters in from southeast U.S. into our area. For
tonight, these will drop to the 40s with temperatures dropping to
from the mid 40s to near 50.

Friday...Surface high pressure will continue to extend towards the
FL peninsula, providing more dry air for east central FL.
Relative humidities will drop to below 35 percent in the
afternoon and winds will be switching from northwest to west
during the day ranging between 5 to 10 mph and no rain expected.

Beach conditions are expected to improve but swimmers should
continue to use caution if venturing to the water as swells
continue to diminish.

Fri Night-Mon Night...Generally zonal flow aloft during this period.
At the surface, high pressure will move out of the Midwest and
toward the mid Atlc coast during the day Sat and emerge into the
western Atlc on Sun ahead of an approaching cold front that will
venture into the FL Panhandle by Tue morning. The atmosphere will
remain very dry with PWATs under one inch areawide until around
early Mon morning. Expect a dry WNW/NW flow early Fri evening
veering to the N Fri overnight, then NE/E during the day on Sat.
ERLY winds continue into early Mon as the pgrad remains weak.
Continue to keep conditions dry during this period over land. Max
temps near climo Sat with mins below normal Sat morning then near
normal Sun morning. Max/min temps return to near climo Sun/Mon.

...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...

Tue-Wed...broad eastern US trough sharpens by early Tue with axis
crossing the region late in the day or overnight. Precipitable
Water increases to around one inch ahead of cold front which
approaches central FL Tue or Tue night. Strong surge of NE flow
may set up from offshore the Carolinas to NE FL and gradually drop
south into the CWA. Increasing moisture convergence suggests
isolated to widely scattered shower chances Tue/Tue night into Wed.
Near normal temps Tue, falling below normal Wed in post frontal
airmass. Coolest temps likely along the coast north of the Cape as
onshore flow across cold shelf waters holds maxs in the upper 60s,
ranging to near 70 central areas and mid 70s south half of CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue with northwest to north winds of 5 to
10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Northwest to north winds this evening will increase to
15 to 20 knots and up to 23 knots across the offshore waters east
of Volusia and Brevard. This as a low pressure over the mid-
Atlantic coast moves towards the northeast, increasing the local
pressure gradient. Therefore, the advisory will change to address
both winds and seas for tonight as seas build 7 to 9 feet.

Fri...Winds will decrease during the day but seas will remain high
as swells continue to subside. Therefore, the advisory will be to
address hazardous seas for the offshore waters as these range 6 to
8 feet across the offshore waters and 4 to 6 feet for the
nearshore waters. Models indicate that combined seas should drop
below 7 feet in the afternoon.

Fri Night...Light/variable early evening flow will become NWRLY
with speeds briefly reaching 10-15 kts as a weak reinforcing
trough slides southward across the waters. Seas 3-4 ft near shore
and 4-5 ft offshore may subside another 1/2 to 1 ft areawide by
daybreak Sat morning.

...Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified...

Sat-Tue...high pressure over the OH River valley Sat moves offshore
the Carolina coast Sun and further seaward Mon as a low level ridge
axis extends to the local waters. The next cold front should move
through the waters late Tue. Winds become N/NE 5-10 kt Sat, then
veer E overnight and Sun 10-15 kt, becoming light SE Sun night and
Mon. Seas subside to 2-3 ft, except up to 4 ft offshore at times
into early next week. Remaining dry over the weekend, then isolated
showers developing Sun night thru Tue and may become more scattered
Tue night in association with the next low pressure system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  49  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  51  75  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  51  74  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  50  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  50  74  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  50  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  52  75  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  48  74  48  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fri-Sat...dry W/NW flow will allow min RH to fall to between 25
and 35 percent across interior counties and 35-40 percent across
the coastal counties with winds averaging near 10 mph. Continued
dry Sat, but as winds veer N/NE during the day, RH recovery will
take place slowly across the coastal counties. Inland however, min
RH should drop to 25-35 percent once again; perhaps 20-25 percent
west of Orlando, with winds near 5 mph.

&&


.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 PM EDT this
     evening for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-
     60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT
     Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-
     60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Negron/Sedlock/Johnson



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