Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 261401
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1001 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.UPDATE...
Very minor changes made to the forecast for this morning`s update,
but the overall forecast remains on track. Low stratus observed
earlier this morning across the interior has lifted since sunrise.
The remaining lower clouds will continue to burn off over the next
hour or so. The weak surface trough placed roughly from the Cape
to just north of Lake Okeechobee will erode, as a mid-level trough
axis moves west to east across the peninsula. Winds veering
onshore by this afternoon, with another fairly steep moisture
gradient in place over the local area. Deepest moisture still
exists over the southern zones, which will have the best chances
for rain today and PoPs 40-50%, especially inland. This tapers off
to around 20% along the Volusia Coast, with isolated thunderstorms
possible generally from the Cape-Orlando southward. Activity will
taper off shortly after sunset, with only a slight chance of
showers lingering into the late evening hours. However, showers
look to persist overnight across the Atlantic waters and a few of
these showers could drift into the coast along easterly flow.
Temperatures remaining above average, with highs this afternoon
reaching the upper 80s to near 90. Overnight lows will also be
well above average, in the lows to mid 70s. For reference, average
high temperatures for the date are in the low 80s and average lows
are in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Lower CIGs from earlier this morning will continue to lift over
the next hour or so. VFR conditions prevailing through the period,
with winds veering onshore by this afternoon. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly from Orlando
southward, with the highest chances inland. Brief CIG/VIS
reductions and gusty winds possible in heavier showers or storms
and amendments may be needed as the day progresses. Activity will
taper off shortly after sunset, but a slight chance of showers
will linger through the overnight across coastal terminals, as a
couple of showers may push onshore. Confidence too low at this
time to include in the TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds veering onshore by this afternoon, as a weak surface trough
draped across the local area erodes. Wind speeds remaining to
around 10kts or less into tonight. Seas are also subsiding, with
local buoy observations indicating seas have fallen to around 5ft
or less. They will continue to decrease through the afternoon,
becoming 3-4ft for the overnight. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible through the morning hours, mainly south of
the Cape. Then, higher coverage will shift inland during the
afternoon. However, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
will linger into the evening and evening through the overnight
across the Atlantic waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  74  86  74 /  10  20  30  10
MCO  89  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  10
MLB  88  76  87  76 /  30  20  20  10
VRB  87  74  88  76 /  30  20  20  10
LEE  88  73  89  73 /  20  10  40  10
SFB  88  74  88  73 /  20  10  40  10
ORL  88  75  90  76 /  30  20  40  10
FPR  87  73  86  74 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Leahy/Volkmer



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.