840
FXUS63 KAPX 130759
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
359 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms will be possible across northern
  Michigan this afternoon.

- Temperatures building next week to potential record breaking
  highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Low amplitude shortwave/jet max looks to punch across the Great
Lakes today as the parent longwave trough amplifies over the region
into Friday. Forcing provided aloft will result in surface low
pressure deepening along an advancing cold front from Quebec back
across the central Great Plains, which is set to swing across the
area this afternoon.

Forecast Details:

Isolated severe storms possible this afternoon -- Ongoing
thunderstorms across parts of northern Michigan will continue to
track east and gradually weaken with time this morning amidst fumes
of elevated instability. Severe storms are not anticipated through
the morning hours. A break in thunderstorm chances is anticipated
later this morning before additional scattered storms develop
along/ahead of the aforementioned cold front this afternoon. The
best chances for storms seem to be split, with one area of higher
storm chances coming across the eastern U.P./Tip of the Mitt and
another south of M-72. Thunderstorms this afternoon will be in the
presence of strong buoyancy (~2,000 J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer
shear (~40 kts). Forecast hodographs display shear that is
relatively evenly distributed through the vertical profile,
increasing the likelihood for organized storms later today -- a few
of which could be strong to severe. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be possible with any strong storms that develop. While
not necessarily expected, a tornado or two will be possible with any
strong storms as well. These thoughts are echo`d by SPC as the Day 1
Convective Outlook highlights a 2% tornado probability area across
most of the northern lower peninsula. Otherwise, temperatures looks
to warm into the low to mid 80s for many areas south of the bridge
today before the cold front swings through, dropping temperatures
back into the upper 40s and low 50s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Midlevel zonal flow with an internal jet maxima across the northern
half of the CONUS will continue chances of showers and storms at
times due to embedded height disturbances. Ridging currently over
southwestern U.S will progress over upper Midwest at the start of
the forecast period and build surface level high pressure.

Biggest focus for the entirety of the long term is the temperatures
building well above normal as the aformentioned midlevel flow advects
northward. Chances of precipitation is still expected at times with
convective storms along with weak frontal passages but diurnal
heating to near record breaking temperatures through the majority
of the work week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Temperatures building next week to potential record breaking highs:
Surface high pressure will build at the start of the long term
resulting in dry and pleasant weather pattern this weekend.
Clear skies and sinking air will result in cool overnight lows
(especially Friday night) and daytime highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s for the weekend. Attention quickly turns toward the
start of the next work week as midlevel ridging strengthens
across the eastern half of the U.S allowing for hot and humid
air to build across the CWA (humid for northern Michigan). Long
range guidance is hinting at Tuesday and Wednesday being the
hottest during the entirety of the long term with daytime highs
near 90 degrees for most locations while overnight lows remain
in the upper 60s/low 70s. Enough atmospheric energy will
trigger come convective showers and thunderstorms at times next
week that would aid in cooling localized locations, but overall
northern Michigan will remain warm until a cold front finally
puts an end to the heat around the Thursday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A cold front will cross northern MI on Thursday. Multiple rounds
of showers, and perhaps embedded TSRA, will be possible until
then. Rain chances arrive at CIU/PLN shortly after midnight, and
later tonight TVC/APN/MBL. Chance for TS at any one TAF site is
small enough to not include for now. Mainly VFR conditions, but
cigs will eventually lower. Do have MVFR cigs for part of
Thursday at CIU. Brief vsby/cig restrictions are possible with
stronger showers and any TSRA.

Sw winds will increase tonight and Thursday, veering west late
in the day. LLWS is included at PLN/CIU for part of tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ