Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
046 FXUS64 KBRO 040447 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Key Messages: *Above normal high and low temperatures *Very low rain chances A Heat Advisory is in place for most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley until 7 PM. The only part of the CWA that is not in the Heat Advisory is right along the coast. As for everywhere else, the heat indices look to be climbing into 115 for this afternoon. Make sure to take any necessary precautions. As for the rest of the short term, above normal temperatures and very little rain is the main points here. The mid-level ridge continues to dominate the region with a stable and dry middle and upper levels of the the atmosphere. This environment makes it difficult for showers and thunderstorms to get going. However, it is possible that a rouge shower or thunderstorm could develop off the Sierra Madre and make its way into the area. However, that is still very unlikely to happen. As for the temperatures, high temperatures are going to be in the upper 90s for areas along the coast, while the rest of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be in the triple digits. With the southeasterly winds continuing as they are, more low-level moisture will move into the region, which will help bring up the heat indices. For tomorrow, the heat indices are in the range of 114 to 117. A Heat Advisory for tomorrow is going to be needed. However, it appears to be rather borderline for an Excessive Heat Warning right now, as the heat indices do not appear to be that high for very long. Even into tomorrow night, the heat indices do not let up, with the overnight heat indices in the range of upper 80s to lower 90s. The actual overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the 80s. Lastly, for anyone going to the beach, there is a moderate risk of Rip Currents due to the ongoing waves and swell through tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The 500mb ridge of high pressure weakens slightly Wednesday, before building into West Texas into early next week, continuing to bake Deep South Texas through the week, as a persistent and potent trough continues much cooler weather across the Great Lakes and Northeast and a frontal system stalls into Central Texas. The chance of rain remains generally less than 15 percent through the long term, with the best chance at a storm or two Wednesday into Wednesday evening, either from convection upstream or working off the Sierra Madre. Streamer showers and storms are possible offshore each night, gradually increasing in activity and coverage into early next week. Otherwise, expect heat to continue, cooling a degree or two Thursday through the weekend before returning Monday. Overnight lows remain generally in the 80s across the Rio Grande Valley, with some upper 70s returning Friday through Sunday. Heat Advisories will be most likely Wednesday, but may be needed Thursday and Monday as well. Some drier air arriving late this week into the weekend should tamper Heat Indices below 110 for Deep South Texas for a little bit of a break. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 MVFR to VFR will continue to dominate at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Tonight through Tuesday Night...Strong pressure gradient over the Lower Texas Coast will support moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate to slightly elevated seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution for today with a need for a low end Small Craft Advisory possible tonight and tomorrow for the Gulf waters. Wednesday through Monday...As high pressure builds into West Texas through the end of the week, expect winds to gradually diminish, allowing seas to subside, with generally favorable marine conditions returning to the lower Texas coast through the weekend. The chance of streamer showers or storms across offshore waters gradually increases each night Wednesday through Monday, maybe nudging into nearshore waters early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 83 97 83 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 98 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 100 82 101 82 / 0 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 79 104 80 / 10 20 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 83 89 83 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 81 95 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ248>255-351-353>355. GM...None. && $$