943
FXUS63 KFGF 071940
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
240 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers to spread southeastward across the area this
evening tapering off by late tonight.

- More widespread storm chances return to the area late Monday
  into Monday night. Predictability is low for impacts

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow pattern remains in place across the area with a
shortwave trough dropping southeastward through the area from
Saskatchewan tonight. This weak wave is slightly
deepening/strengthening as it drops southeast with mainly mid
level moisture present. Therefore some uncertainty into how much
rain will reach the ground with the area of showers. However as
the wave strengthens, expect more intense showers to develop
with ok moisture advection present into the area by this
evening. Therefore have increasing pops and confidence in
showers into the evening hours across the central/southern
portions of the forecast area this evening into the overnight
hours. Little to no instability present, so left out any mention
of thunder at this time.

Large complex of low pressure area situated to the northwest and
far northeast remains to the north with the northwest flow
pattern into the weekend. A slow wobble to the south Saturday
with another shortwave rotating around the western upper low to
eject southeastward across the area Saturday. Again could see
some additional isolated to scattered shower development in the
afternoon hours. Some instability present with this wave, so an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the northeast/east.

As that upper low continues to wobble southward it will merge
with another area of low pressure moving ashore in the Pacific
NW/Northern Rockies. This will start to develop more of a SW
upper flow pattern across the area into early next week. This
will bring in increasing low level moisture, return flow and a
warm front lifting north across the area late Monday into Monday
night. Overrunning may lead to some initial showers, with
chances for more widespread showers/storms as the warm front
lifts northward. Uncertainty in timing/strength of moisture
return and warm frontal progress will determine the overall
threat for storms and the predictability for strong to severe
storms/impacts, etc. More of an active zonal flow pattern then
sets up through the remainder of the week with overall low
predictability in overall precipitation/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with increasing mid
clouds this evening and clearing skies into Saturday morning. An
area of showers to move southeastward through the area mainly
this evening and tried to time best chances for showers at all
terminal sites with the tempo groups. Might see a brief MVFR CIG
or VSBY with the strongest showers, but overall expect mainly
lower VFR CIGS with any showers, and VSBYS above 6SM. Some
uncertainty in how much rain will reach the ground in spots, and
intensity of the showers with the best chances for a stronger
shower at KFAR and KBJI. Northwesterly winds becoming more
westerly to southwesterly into Saturday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...MJB