Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241754
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1254 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CHALLENGING TRYING TO KEEP UP WITH ALL THE WEATHER ELEMENTS TODAY.
AS FAR AS THE LIGHT PCPN GOES...ONE PIECE HAS MOVED OUT OF KDVL
PROPER BUT IS STILL UP AROUND LANGDON. NEXT THIN BAND IS TRYING TO
POKE UP INTO THE FORMAN AREA. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS THE PCPN HAS
ENDED. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS KEEP A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN NORTHWEST
OF A NEW ROCKFORD TO PEMBINA LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ALSO TRY TO
LIFT THE THIN BAND AROUND FORMAN UP INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
PCPN AMOUNTS WITH EITHER OF THESE TWO AREAS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID. OTHERWISE SOME CLEARING IS WORKING INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN AND TEMPS THERE HAVE RESPONDED
ACCORDINGLY. THIS STILL BRINGS THE WARMEST TEMPS TODAY TO THAT
AREA.

CHALLENGES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. FOR THE 12Z DATA THAT IS IN SO
FAR IT GENERALLY KEEPS 1-3 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. VERY GUSTY WINDS KICK IN AS THE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL
AROUND 09Z WED...AND THESE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY SNOW CAN BLOW
AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL BE IF IT DOES. AT THIS POINT THINK
THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE FAIRLY BAD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...MAINLY ON THE ND SIDE WHERE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER. MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS AREA
BUT WILL LOOK AT MORE DATA THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WY AND CO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO SPLIT. ONE
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ND WHILE THE OTHER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ALSO TWO SURFACE LOWS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT AND CO
AND TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TWO PRESSURE
SYSTEMS COMBINE OVER QUEBEC BY WED NIGHT. STRONGER MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM.

OPEN WAVE OVER WY FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN STREAM
WHILE SOUTHERN SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. UPPER WAVE OPENS UP
AFTER WED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LESS WITH THIS RUN WITH ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LESS SNOW
ELSEWHERE. THEREAFTER THE UPSTREAM UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND
WILL SEND COOLER AIR OUT OF CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY...BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. A WEAK WAVE WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD SNOW CHANCES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY MINOR. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGES BY
SATURDAY DUE TO A STRONGER SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA. IN
REALITY...THE MODELS ARE NOT THAT FAR APART SAT/SAT NIGHT...JUST
MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STRONG SYSTEM THAT MAKES
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SHOWERS (GFS/GEM) AND DRY (ECMWF). AFTER
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...VALUES SHOULD BE MORE TOWARD NORMAL
OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

COMPLEX FORECAST AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND MVFR TO IFR
CIGS...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT KDVL. THE CLOUDS HAVE BE
STARTING TO BREAK UP JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER...BUT THINK IT WILL
JUST BRING KTVF BRIEFLY TO VFR BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN. A LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE RED RIVER WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER THE FIRST BAND PASSES BY...AS DRY AIR HAS BEEN WRAPPING UP
INTO THE CENTER OF THE LOW JUST TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT THEN NORTHWEST WINDS AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK IN AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. TIMING IS TOUGH
AT THIS POINT...BUT THINK THAT KDVL WILL SEE THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
LOW THIS EVENING AND THE SITES FURTHER EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT. SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...AND WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS NEARING 30 KTS SUSTAINED BY MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 40
KTS...SOME VERY LOW VIS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIOD. THE LOW VIS
WILL BE MORE FROM FALLING SNOW WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...SO
WILL JUST GO 2SM FOR NOW AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JR





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