Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Made minor adjustments to pops to match radar trends and also
increased winds slightly over southeastern North Dakota. Strongest
push of low-level cold advection will be over the next few hours
concurrent with stronger pressure rises as the upper shortwave
trough/surface low slide southeastward, so will have to continue
to monitor winds through the morning. For now, made mention of
gustier winds over SE ND (gusts up to 40 mph) in a nowcast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Although no significant impacts are expected, the main concerns
today will be precip chances and winds.

As of 08Z, light shower activity was occurring over northwest MN
just ahead of a compact upper shortwave trough over northeast ND.
The more persistent band of rain associated with the 700 mb
frontogenesis response was mainly confined to southern Manitoba.
As the upper wave moves southeast this morning, some of this
precip should rotate into the northern valley and northwest MN,
but the frontogenesis is expected to weaken southeastward, leading
to a gradually weakening band of showers that should exit the area
sometime around midday.

In addition to the showers, a period of gusty winds is expected
over parts of the area this morning as the surface low drops
southeastward. Models are in good agreement showing a tight surface
pressure gradient (strong pressure rises) behind the surface low
with strong low-level cold advection and 30-40 kt winds at 925 mb
during the morning, highest over southeast ND. There likely will
be a few hours with winds 20-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 40
mph this morning, highest over southeast North Dakota. Winds will
weaken this afternoon as surface ridging builds into the area.

Temps will be cooler today with quite a bit of cloud cover for
much of the day. While some areas may see some clearing later
today/tonight, especially across the south, clouds may hang tight
for much of the area so have not gone too low for min temps
tonight. Some patchy fog could not be ruled out tonight in areas
that do clear out.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Quiet weather will continue Monday and Monday Night as high
pressure shifts east of the region. The next system of interest
will be a wave moving across the central plains into the MS Valley
Tue/Tue Night. Seasonably strong moisture return, especially into
southern parts of the region is expected by late Tuesday. The
southern RRV/west-central Minnesota currently appears most likely
to see steadier rainfall (potentially over half an inch) Tue/Tue
Night within the mid-level deformation zone/warm advection,
although model consensus suggests the strongest forcing and
highest rain amounts will be south of our area.

Wednesday-Saturday...Models in good agreement initially but become
out of phase to end the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday with the
region under the influence of a surface trough. High pressure and
dry weather follow...but by the end of the week the GFS indicates
northwest flow aloft and clipper systems while the ECMWF indicates
strong ridging...with a Pacific NW wave affecting the region later
Saturday. Any impacts will likely be minimal...with timing of rain
the main challenge. Forecast after Wednesday is mostly dry due to
low confidence. Temperatures near normal values.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A period of gusty winds is expected behind a cold front, likely
highest at KFAR, where gusts to 30 kts are possible during a
relatively short window this morning. Winds across the area will
subside later this afternoon and evening as high pressure moves
over the area. MVFR ceilings are progressing southeastward this
morning, with a gradual trend back towards VFR expected this
afternoon/evening, although confidence in cloud trends is somewhat
low right now. Although a few showers are possible at KTVF/KBJI
this morning, confidence too low to mention.




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