Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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336
FXUS63 KFGF 181848
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1248 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Clouds over northwest Minnesota have been slow to slide east. Have
actually had some additional cumulus development on the back edge
of these clouds right in the immediate Red River Valley, which
have prolonged them as well. Still think these will continue to
slide eastward through the afternoon. Quite a few more stations
are reporting flurries or very light snow under these clouds, so
prolonged that mention as well. Finally, temperatures have risen a
bit more than expected along the Canadian border, so increased
highs there a few more degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Upper air pattern remains relatively progressive with a short
wave moving through the area today and another short wave
Sat night/Sun morning. A low amplitude upper ridge will
approach the area Sun afternoon.

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough along the
southwestern MAN. The short wave will move southeast and
brush the northern zones will some flurries/light snow this
morning. North-south upper level jet was on the west side of the
trough. Region was in the left exit region the upper level jet.
Weak surface low over western ND will move southeast and bring a
shot of cooler air across the Red River Valley for this morning.
Surface ridge will move over the area tonight with low level warm
advection commencing.

Another weak surface trough will move across the Red River
Valley Sun morning and produce light snow over the
northeast zones late Sat night and Sun morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Little change in the overall weather pattern from what has been
predicted by various models the upcoming week.  Will see several
low pressure systems move east across south central Canada, with
milder temps ahead of it and a sharp cooldown and northwest winds
behind them. Overall precipitation chances pretty small with no
significant amounts. One low will move ESE from the Saskatoon area
to near Winnipeg to just north of Kenora Monday. Mild ahead of it
with 30s and 40s for temperatures, then sharply colder behind it
for Tuesday. A little bit of light snow around Lake of the Woods
Monday evening.

Wednesday may see a weak short wave move southeast across the area
giving small chances for light snow.  GFS model remains the only one
to show this however with ECMWF, global GEM dry.  Dry Thanksgiving
with temperatures near or slightly above normal, then next front due
Friday with colder air by next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

The MVFR clouds right along and east of the Red River Valley are
the main aviation concern. At KGFK/KFAR, think just a couple of
hours of the broken MVFR clouds will hold before they slide east.
KTVF and KBJI will probably be affected the longest, or until mid
to late afternoon. There is some light snow or flurries under
these clouds, but vsbys mainly look pretty good. The gusty winds
will subside late this afternoon into the evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon



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