Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160958
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
354 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Fog loop indicates clouds were moving south over the area.
Precipitable water rises today and peaks Thu night then
decreases from the northwest on Fri.

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over WA/OR.
Water vapor loop also indicated an upper trough over
western ALTA. The upper level troughs will move into
southern MAN by 06Z Fri with an upper jet on the southern
periphery. Precipitation is expected to develop over the
northern zones Thu night.

Main upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will hang back
and move out into the Northern Plains Fri night. This system
may produce snow over the southern Red River Valley Fri
night. The southern Red River Valley will be in the right
entrance region of the upper level jet.

Winds will switch and come out of the southeast for today. Windy
conditions are expected again today. Winds may be near wind
advisory conditions. Another cold front will move out of Canada
Thu night and take most of Fri to move through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

The upper air pattern will remain progressive next week with low
pressure systems moving east across Canada. The 00Z ECMWF/GFS is
consistent thru Tuesday.  Milder air (relative to normal) will move
into the area Sunday and Monday as an upper ridge moves in behind
departing 500 mb trough. Next low to move through Manitoba Monday
night followed by colder air Tuesday.

On Wednesday the 00z GFS does have a southeast moving short
wave/clipper type low moving thru E ND/MN and some light snow
chances.  00z ECMWF/GEM is dry.  Milder air to return Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

IFR/MVFR Cigs will drift south tonight but will begin moving
northward late in the night as southerly winds return to the area.
Cigs will begin to rise late in the night in most locations
also...with the south (KFAR) seeing VFR conditions possibly as
early as sunrise. The rest of the sites will see VFR conditions
eventually tomorrow...but it might take a bit longer. When the
southerly winds come back...they`ll be on the strong side gusting
to 30 kts or so during the afternoon.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Knutsvig



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