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000
FXUS63 KFGF 150005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

EXPECT CLEARING EARLY THIS EVE AS EXPECTED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL A SPREAD ON QPF AND
AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL WHICH MAY AFFECT THE FAR SE FA.
WILL CURRENTLY FOLLOW PREFERRED BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.

CURRENT POPCORN SHSN ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT LEFT SHSN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE
CU FIELD SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE LEAVING FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD COLUMN IN PLACE WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND SOME WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES MAY BE
A BIT WARMER.

LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE SHOULD GET INTO NW FA
SPREADING SE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR FSD BY MORNING. DID INCREASE POPS WITH BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AS SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES EAST ON WEDNESDAY MAIN CONCERN IS WHERE
DEFORMATION SNOW BAND SETS UP. ECMWF OVERALL WEAKEST ON QPF. GFS
SHOWS MAIN SNOW BAND JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA WITH GEM/NAM FARTHER
NORTH IMPACTING SE TIER OF COUNTIES. DID INCREASE POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SE HOWEVER WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

SNOW SHOULD PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE FA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A 500MB
TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEAK RIDGING REPLACES IT. 850MB
TEMPS STILL BELOW ZERO SO FRI TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH NEXT TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING IN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA BRINGING A SWATH OF RAIN MIXED AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SNOW. FINALLY START SEEING SOME RIDGING AGAIN BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. DETAILS STILL VAGUE THIS FAR OUT WITH SOME MODELS QUICKER ON
WARMING THAN OTHERS. DESPITE THAT WILL STICK WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS
WHICH INDICATE HIGHS FINALLY RISING BACK TO THE WARMER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

REMAINING CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING CLEAR SKY.
SOME CIRRUS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. NORTH-NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISHI QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET LEAVING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE TO RIVER FORECAST POINTS TODAY.
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH WAS CANCELLED.
SOME MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WARNING ON THE ROSEAU RIVER AT ROSEAU WAS
ALSO DROPPED...AS STAGES HAVE RECEDED BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

OTHERWISE FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS
NEAR ITS EXPECTED CREST TODAY IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...WHILE THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...BOTH EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO HAVE CRESTED
AND HAVE BEGUN A SLOW DECLINE. OSLO REMAINS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND EAST GRAND FORKS IN MINOR. FARTHER NORTH...STAGES WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY RISE...WITH A CREST AT DRAYTON IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE
MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT PEMBINA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.

WILL ALLOW THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY TO
EXPIRE...WITH THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAINING FOR AREAS CLOSER TO

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI