Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 182331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

STILL A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA BUT ACTIVITY HAS REALLY
BEEN WINDING DOWN. PRETTY HARD TO PULL PCPN CHANCES ANYWHERE YET
AS THERE ARE CELLS STILL UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FA. FORECAST KEPT PCPN CHANCES THRU EARLY
EVENING AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL WORK GOOD. NEXT CHALLENGE WILL
BE CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG CHANCES. SOME OF THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST FOG CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS FOG IS POSSIBLE ABOUT ANYWHERE SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL SAID NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO (UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY). AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
ALTHOUGH RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO DETECT THESE
CIRCULATIONS...WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS. NOT SURE ABOUT COVERAGE...BUT
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE PROPAGATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET (AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY) ADVECTS. THE NAM WOULD
SUGGEST A HIGHER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPING THE BEST SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH
NOT LIKELY).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS NORTHERN TIER. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODELS TARGETING NORTH DAKOTA WITH DECENT
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE CONSALL SOLUTION FURTHER RAISE THU THROUGH SAT
POPS. SUNDAY MAY SEE A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
DAY 7. WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITING SOLAR...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SUN/MON TIMEFRAME WHEN
COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN MAY LIMIT DAYTIME TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE VFR RANGE AT KGFK/KFAR/KDVL BUT
ARE STILL FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT KBJI/KTVF. MOST PCPN ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN AROUND KBJI BUT THERE ARE STILL SHOWERS THAT MAY AFFECT OTHER
TAF SITES TOO. FOR THE MOST PART THESE HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SO HAVE GONE WITH VCSH RATHER THAN VCTS THRU
EARLY EVENING. THE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND KBJI/KTVF
TONIGHT AND THERE MAY ALSO BE MORE FOG AROUND. MENTIONED SOME LATE
MORNING CUMULUS TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON





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