Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170530
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

TEMPERATURE WITHIN THE CLEAR AREA FALLING FASTER THAN EXPECTED
UNDER THE SFC HIGH (LIGHT WINDS)...AND WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVECTING
WESTWARD...AND MOST GUIDANCE (LOOKING AT RH FIELDS) CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THEY WILL MAKE IT TO NEAR THE VALLEY...THEN PULL BACK
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SKIES REMAINED PRETTY CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF ND. SOME CLOUD STREETS REMAINED BETWEEN KGFK KFAR AND KBWP
WHERE THERE WERE STILL SOME FLURRIES. UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MN HELPING TO HOLD SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS SE TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS MAY WRAP BACK AROUND THIS LOW AND
PUSH BACK TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND HOLD INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALREADY SEEING THE CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION BACKING WEST-SW SO THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST
AND FOR HOW LONG. FOR NOW BROUGHT THE CLOUDS BACK INTO THE VALLEY
INITIALLY AND THEN TOOK THEM EAST AGAIN. OF COURSE DEGREE OF
CLEARING/CLOUDINESS WILL AFFECT TEMPS. EXPECT THE LEAST CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE KDVL REGION SO WENT WITH COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS
THERE. KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO WED WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ON THU. MODELS SHOWING SOME MINIMAL
PCPN OVER THE NORTH/NE FA ON FRI ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/WARM ADVECTION. MATCHED UP WITH KDLH TO ADD SOME LOW SNOW
CHANCES FOR THIS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUES...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE
A TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT MID LEVEL FLOW TO RELATIVE ZONAL FLOW.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS THE N CENTRAL US THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE INITIAL WAVE LOOKS TO HAVE MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. A STRONGER WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS BETTER POTENTIAL TO
BRING PCPN TO THE REGION. WITH ITS PACIFIC ORIGIN PCPN PHASE MAY
BE AN ISSUE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SO FAR THIS WINTER. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MODEL RH FIELDS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE TO AN
EXTENT...BRING CLOUDS BACK WEST (SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS
SCENARIO). THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION IS THAT KDVL REMAINS
CLEAR...VFR CLOUDS (@4000FT) MOVE INTO THE VALLEY SITES...WITH
MVFR CIGS INTO KBJI. ANTICIPATE A SLOW CLEARING TREND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG





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