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000
FXUS63 KFGF 271751
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WELL THE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF THINNING ANYWHERE
AND ARE ACTUALLY BACKING UP TO THE WEST IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE
WILL SHIFT THE FORECAST TO GO THE CLOUDY ROUTE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE MENTION OF SOME FOG INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TOO WHERE IT IS
LINGERING THE LONGEST. ALONG WITH THE IDEA OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
TOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY RECORD HIGHS NO LONGER EXISTS. WILL
ALSO LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY UNDER THE CLOUDS OR
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL HINGE ON WHAT
CURRENT CLOUD COVER DOES DURING THE DAY. CURRENT STRATUS CLOUD
SHIELD EXTENDS FROM VALLEY EASTWARD. MODELS CURRENTLY NOT HANDLING
CLOUD TRENDS WELL AT ALL AND HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHAT CLOUDS
WILL DO. HIGH RESOLUTION (HRRR) WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH LOWER CIGS
WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOIST
EASTWARD. GFS AND TO A DEGREE THE NAM WANT TO CLEAR OUT THE VALLEY
AND DEVELOP LOWER CIGS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE S-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WESTERN EDGE SHOULD ERODE BUT MAY
BE TOO LATE FOR SOLAR TO AID IN WARMING. WITH UNCERTAINTY DID NOT
DIFFER TOO MUCH ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

REGION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SAG INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY
MODELS SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE FA AND KEEP MOST
APPRECIABLE QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER. WITH MODELS TRENDING FOR
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND DELAY IN BRINGING MOISTURE SOUTH OF
INL BORDER DELAYED/TRIMMED POPS DURING THE AM AND HELD WITH CHANCE
POPS DURING THE DAY AS ECMWF AND NAM NEARLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MORE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS AND DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.

TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF SAGS OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL SHIFT SE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THIS TAF ISSUANCE CONCERNS LOW CIGS AND VIS PRIMARILY. EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD TO KDVL LATER TODAY. CURRENT MODELS
HAVE CLOUDS FURTHER WEST ALREADY...SO HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
CLOUD COVER AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SOMEWHAT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
EXACT TIMING...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KDVL
TODAY. OTHER TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW...WITH VIS DROPPING AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER SOME IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG