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000
FXUS63 KFGF 061018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A
HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS
IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS
IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND
PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL
TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK
CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18
UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA
THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO
PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH
ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END
BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM
REASONABLE.

1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH
THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR
EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF
THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE
FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT
MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS
DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP
CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE
WHERE OR WHEN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

MVFR CIGS BREAKING UP AS DRIER 850 MB AIR MOVING EASTWARD THRU ERN
ND AND ENTERING THE RRV. AT THE SAME TIME A 45KT 925 MB SOUTHERLY
WIND TRANSPORTING A STRATUS DECK QUICKLY NORTHWARD THRU ERN SD/WRN
MN. 925 MB WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT...SO QUESTION OF THE TAF IS HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG WILL
THIS IFR OR LOW END MVFR CIG DECK WILL ARRIVE AND LINGER. WENT A
BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC. DID NOT INCLUDE PCPN AT ANY TAF SITE LATER
TONIGHT-THU MORNING DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
TYPE...BUT DOES EXIST POTENTIAL FOR SHORT PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW DVL-GFK-TVF AFTER 09Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST MID AFTN DVL AND LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN GFK-TVF
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-
     014-015-024-026-028>030.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
     027-054.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-004-007-
     008-013>017.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ005-006-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE