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000
FXUS63 KFGF 021539
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLICK ROADS AROUND FERGUS FALLS AND
ROTHSAY...SO ADJUSTED MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST. ADJUSTED POPS DOWN JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT CUT QPF
QUITE A BIT AS MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS LESS SNOW IN THE NORTH.
MAY HAVE TO CUT SNOW AMOUNTS MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE BAND
DEVELOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY...WITH ALL SNOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ND. NO CHANGES
PLANNED TO THIS UPDATE...WITH ALL HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

THIS WILL BE A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST...WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BITTERLY COLD AIR
TO END THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT
DETAILS IN REGARD TO LARGER SYSTEM TUE AND WED...WITH THE NAM
CONTINUING WITH A MORE WRAPPED UP...NORTHERN LOW. THIS SEEMS THE
OUTLIER THOUGH WITH THE OTHER MODELS HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHERN LOW
TRACK AND LOW DEEPENING FURTHER EAST. EVEN IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG MESOSCALE
MODELS...SO WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY
THROUGH WED...EXACT PLACEMENT AND DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A BAND OF SNOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL OMEGA...ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SHORTWAVE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR JET STREAK. THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 0.50 INCHES. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A
BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW IN THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING...SO WILL ADD THESE COUNTIES TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
UNTIL 00Z TUE. THE REST OF THE ADVISORY HEADLINES THROUGH 12Z TUE
LOOK GOOD...WITH THE MAIN ACCUMULATING SNOW BAND TODAY THROUGH
AROUND 06Z TUE. WE EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR THE AREA...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 24 HR PERIOD SOMEWHERE IN
THE FA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WHO WILL GET THE HEAVIEST
BAND OF SNOW...SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL PRUDENT...SINCE
WINDS WON/T BE STRONG AT ALL TODAY AND TONIGHT SO DON/T EXPECT
BLOWING SNOW.

FOR TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
SNOW SHOULD RE-DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE STRONGER
LIFTING WITH THIS SYSTEM PER QG/OMEGA FIELDS...IN ADDITION TO AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. A SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO WESTERN WI
BY EVENING...AND WINDS SHOULD ALSO START TO INCREASE BY TUE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY BY THE
TUE EVENING COMMUTE IF THE GFS MODEL PROGS ARE CORRECT. THE ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH STRONGER WINDS...AND WOULD DELAY POTENTIAL
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UNTIL TUE NIGHT AND WED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH SNOW. BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME AN ISSUES AT SOME
POINT...WITH TIMING STILL TOUGH TO PIN DOWN DEPENDING ON MODEL
SOLUTIONS. NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION WE BELIEVE...MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW...AND HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS AFOREMENTIONED...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING ONCE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
THIS WILL BE A DANGEROUS STORM WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FOR THE VALLEY. STAY TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS ON THIS STORM...AND
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
FOR 12ZTUE THROUGH 00Z THU WITH SOME TIME TO IRON OUT THE EXACT
DETAILS AND FUTURE UPGRADES.

FOR THURSDAY-SUNDAY...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES
THROUGH THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBZERO HIGH
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS...WITH TEMPS NO HIGHER THAN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOWS WILL BE DOWN TO
AT LEAST -10 TO -20F...QUITE POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER IN SOME AREAS.
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH
WINDS REMAINING BRISK THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH.
THE COLD AIR APPEARS IN NO RUSH TO SIGNIFICANTLY MODERATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES DO INCREASE IN TERMS OF
PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUE)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND REDUCE
VSBYS AT TIMES TO 1SM OR EVEN A BIT LESS AT TIMES. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE BY 12Z TUE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-
     052-053.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029-
     030-040.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...RIDDLE