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000
FXUS63 KFGF 160442
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

No changes needed to the forecast. Showers continue to work to
the east across the valley with low clouds and some patchy fog in
its wake. SFC low tracking across west central MN with
thunderstorms ahead of the feature moving into the Bemidji area in
the next hour or so. All activity is expected to be out of the
FA around dawn or slightly sooner.

UPDATE Issued at 925 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Matched current radar trends with PoPs otherwise forecast going as
expected. Widespread rainfall across E ND continues with more
scattered coverage in the southern valley and lakes country of MN.
Will see coverage expand into NW MN over the next few hours with
activity in NE SD filling in and lifting NE. Most the the
precipitation is expected to be clear the FA or be confined to the
far northern portions by 4am or so.

UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Updated PoPs to match the current trends for the rest of the
evening and into the overnight. Another round of widespread rain
is expected across the NW half of the FA as 850mb moisture
advection continues to feed into the area underneath increasing
mid and upper level forcing. Across the SE chances for precip will
be decided by convection in SD and its evolution to the NE. As
such less widespread coverage and more scattered activity is
anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Bands of showers and thunderstorms will continue to propagate
northward through the evening in warm advection zone ahead of well
defined wave and associated surface low over the central plains.
As surface low along the NE/SD border region and elevated warm
front approaches late afternoon and this evening and warm
advection is maximized over portions of the fa will have to
monitor for potentially stronger storms. Best chances and highest
pops will shift into the northern fa by late evening. Temperatures
not likely to do much overnight.

Less certain about rain potential tomorrow. Cold front will
propagate east and will be on the eastern fringe of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. If there is a potential for T tomorrow
afternoon it will be short lived. Otherwise, main shear axis will
rotate through so will keep some lower chance pops going however
low level forcing looks to be lacking. With cold advection during
the day and clouds any recovery will be minor.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Saturday night through Thursday

Drier conditions are expected Sunday into Sunday night with isolated
rain showers possible across the region Monday. Temperatures during
this time Will remain seasonal with highs climbing into the upper
60s and low 70s with overnight lows dropping to the mid to upper
40s. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday as a cold
front moves across the state in association with an upper level
trough ejecting out over the northwestern US. While still several
days out, long term guidance suggests CAPE and shear values
supportive of severe thunderstorms across central and eastern ND
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Temperatures should rebound
with highs in the low to mid 70s for Wednesday and Thursday with
drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

IFR and patchy MVFR CIGs expected for the overnight and into much
of the morning Saturday. Rain ending in the overnight and will
redevelop with scattered activity tomorrow afternoon. Vsbys will
be impacted by fog or mist through mid morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...JK