Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 101304
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
704 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Fcst in good shape with timing of the snow still looking good.
Heaviest snow in the band is from just west of Bemidji thru
Detroit Lakes to Fergus Falls and Breckenridge at 13z. What few
reports we have received shows 1 to 1.5 inches in Fargo with
lighter snows now falling. Tweeked the 06z-18z period storm total
snowfall to average around 2 inches in far SE ND and WC MN but
will continue to mention locally higher as a 3 or so inch report I
do think is doable. Winds with the snow are not great...so main
impact are slick roads and did highlight that in SPS and Social
Media.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Sfc low just southeast of Sioux Falls at 09z with an inverted
trough northward to near Fergus Falls, Fosston and Roseau. 500 mb
shows an intensifying short wave at 500 mb moving into wrn
nebraska and this will move into southern minnesota this afternoon
helping to further intensity the sfc low. Area of snow northwest
of the sfc low is starting to develop more and spreading east into
the RRV. One area of heavier precip (mix of freezing rain and
snow) Watertown SD area and model data and looking at mid level
frontogensis and upward vertical motion would suggest the activity
in ne SD will intensity and also looking at the same for se ND.
Will need to monitor. Right now have around 2 inches in se ND for
this event as well as WC MN.  But could see a bit more.

Winds increase behind this system as the low develops more into
western Wisconsin. Sfc winds 15-23kts with gusts to 30 kts in the
RRV and ern ND should promote some BLSN. So added it to the grids.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Next short wave will move east mainly thru SD and far southern ND
into central and southern MN Wednesday. A band of light snow with
this feature as well, primarily morning hours. GFS/NAM highlight
more SD into southern MN while GEM/ECMWF show a bit more in
ND/central MN. Will go along with model blend at this point for
Wed AM. Fast moving system so accums under one half inch expected
for now.

Cold front will move thru Thursday morning followed by gusty
northwest winds and much colder air.

For Friday through Tuesday
An upper trof across southern Ontario continues to shift
east...and the coldest air begins to retreat as sfc high pressure
departs across the Great Lakes. Return flow continues into the
weekend...and temperatures will rebound back toward more seasonal
norms. The area will remain generally dry as the upper pattern
trends to more of a split flow scenario by Sunday...with the
northern stream in southern Canada and the southern stream across
the central and southern plains. Otherwise...a weak wave will
cross the area near the end of the period...with a chance for some
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Conditions improving today as the system moves east. Timing of
ending of snow Fargo-Bemidji area could change a bit but overall
idea is good. Seeing VFR conditions into DVL now with most lower
clouds moving out. So idea of VFR conditions spread east behind
this system still looking good. Winds increasing to 15 to 25 kts
many areas today.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle



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