Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 172021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
321 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday morning)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Band of light rain stretching from south central North Dakota into
the Fargo Moorhead metro to Bemidji area continues to produce
about 5 hundredths of an inch an hour and will continue into the
latter portions of this afternoon. The frontogenetical forcing
responsible for the band aided by exit region of central plains
jet streak will shift to the east this evening and into the
overnight allowing the precipitation to gradually slide to the
southeast and weaken. A narrow band of a quarter to half in of
accumulation is possible with the higher values expected in
southeastern North Dakota. Clouds overnight will help keep
temperatures in the 40s with the exception of the Devil Lake basin
where fewer clouds and drier air will allow a few 30s for
overnight minimums.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Tuesday through Thursday...The models are in fairly decent agreement
on near zonal flow for Tuesday with a weak shortwave trough moving
through. There are variations in exactly where light precipitation
ends up but given the track of the shortwave it seems that the
northern counties will have the best chance for getting any rain.
Will keep low POPs for Tuesday afternoon and evening in the north.
Colder air will come down behind this shortwave as the upper trough
amplifies just to our east on Wednesday and Thursday. Think that the
mid-week period should be dry but fairly cool with highs in the 40s
to low 50s and lows in the 30s.

Friday through Monday...The deterministic models are in fairly good
agreement on a warming trend back up to slightly above seasonal
averages as heights rise through the weekend. However, they differ
significantly on the timing of weak shortwaves moving through. The
ECMWF has a fairly vigorous shortwave coming through on Friday and
dropping some QPF, while the GFS doesn`t have anything similar until
late on Saturday. With the timing of these shortwaves very
uncertain, will keep the low POPs that the blended solution gives


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Band of rain beginning to impact the FAR terminal CIGS and VSBY
expected to stay above MVFR criteria. Band may reach into the BJI
area this afternoon will continue with a VCSH there until more
certainty develops.




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