Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...THE HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON IT AND TAKES THE CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO
REFLECT. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE AROUND ENOUGH TO
AFFECT TEMPS BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WITH A SFC LOW
STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
A WARMER AIR MASS BACK INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD AGAIN GET INTO
THE 20S AND 30S EVEN WITH A COOL START THIS MORNING AND INCREASING
CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ND. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT TODAY ON PUTTING OUT SOME PRECIP TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THE RAP IN
FACT HAS SOME PRECIP MOVING IN AS SOON AS LATE AFTERNOON. THINK
THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE TIME IT TAKES TO SATURATE AND
WILL KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE SOME 20-30 POPS
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG WARM LAYER
ALOFT MOVING IN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SFC TEMPS IN THE
EVENING MAY ACTUALLY STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS OFF SOME FREEZING RAIN IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN...ALLOWING THE
SFC TROUGH TO MOVE EAST AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WITH THE WEST WINDS
THINK WE WILL SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN CLOUDS...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS
STILL WELL ABOVE ZERO C...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND SOME SPOTS NEAR THE 40 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ALL BRING A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO THE REGION...BUT STRUGGLE
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP WHEN IT MOVES IN. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN
FURTHER WEST WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THIS PUTS IT MORE SIMILAR TO
THE NAM WHICH IS FURTHEREAST WEST WITH DEFORMATION BAND PRECIP AND
IS THE STRONGEST WITH QPF. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS THE
MAIN PRECIP OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLENDED SOLUTION...WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...SO WENT WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY REMAINS OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...PERHAPS RETROGRADES A BIT TROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN INTENSIFIES THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR SUN AND INCREASED
TWO TO FOUR DEGREES FOR MON THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND MAY
AFFECT THE KFAR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
ARE VFR. THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CLIMB TO THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS AT SOME SITES. WINDS
WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT WILL STILL
BE ABOVE 12 KTS. THE MODELS TRY AND BRING IN SOME STRATUS DURING
THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED KBJI WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND KEEP EVERYWHERE ELSE VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR





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