148
FXUS64 KAMA 051809
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1209 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Dry and breezy conditions expected tomorrow with elevated fire
  weather conditions possible across the SW Texas Panhandle.

- Quiet weather continues as temperatures cool behind a front
  Sunday, then warm through the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Tonight will be another cool night with light winds and clear
skies helping lows drop to the 20s. Broad northwest flow aloft
persists tomorrow, helping spur on a lee sfc low that will
eventually dive southeast, pushing a cold front over the
Panhandles later tomorrow night. Before that occurs, a tighter
pressure gradient will exist across the southern Panhandles,
generating breezy southwest winds. These winds will be sustained
at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph (10-30% chance for rogue
gusts up to 40 mph). Dry air will be in place with highs in the
60s and 20s dew pts leading to RH values in the 20s. Fuels aren`t
terribly dry at this time, but may be conducive for a few fire
starts across the southwest Texas Panhandle. Winds will subside in
the evening behind the front, with temperatures cooling into
Sunday.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Nothing. Zilch. Nada. These are words that describe the number of
precipitation chances to be found from long range weather models
for the Panhandles next week. Investigating ensemble members
supports high confidence that the synoptic pattern of northwest
flow aloft will promote drier and warmer weather going through the
second week of December. Aside from a cooler start to the week on
Sunday (highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s), this translates to
highs increasing in the 50s & 60s daily. We will wait and see if
a more active pattern can materialize by mid December.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs.
Winds will turn from northerly to southwesterly by tomorrow
morning, with speeds generally between 5-15 kts until the end of
the period.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38