Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
106 FXUS64 KAMA 231705 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1105 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will move across the Panhandles throughout Sunday. Expect this activity to come to an end by the late evening hours. - Watching for a strong cold front to move through the Panhandles this coming weekend, bringing with it what could be the coldest air of the season thus far. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Showers with some embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across the Panhandles as an upper-level trough approaches the area. This activity will continue moving northeast as the favorable forcing progresses east and dry air moves in from the west. Expecting the rain to move out of the area by the late evening hours. As the surface low associated with the upper-level system moves off to the east, a weak cold front will move in from the northwest through the day Monday. Given the quickly rising heights aloft and anticipated sunny sky, temperatures will still be able to warm into the upper-50s in the northwestern Panhandles to upper-60s in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures Monday night will drop into the 30s with some lows around 30 degrees expected in the northern Panhandles. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 An upper-level trough will move across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes on Tuesday and Tuesday night while a cold front moves south through the Great Plains. Latest model guidance has sped up the timing of the cold front compared to yesterday, with the front moving in to the northern Plains in the early afternoon and through the Panhandles by the early evening. The NAM, which sometimes handles these cold fronts better, is at least few hours quicker than the global models. Should this happen, expect highs to be cooler than currently forecast. Will leave the highs alone for now, but they may need to be adjusted downward in the coming days. Otherwise, breezy/gusty winds will be possible along and behind the cold front due to a steep pressure gradient. A shortwave trough within northwesterly flow aloft could result in the development of a surface low in northeastern New Mexico on Wednesday which could result in some 10-20 mph sustained southerly/southwesterly winds. The latest NBM has highs in the upper- 40s to low-50s, but if those stronger southwesterly winds verify, temperatures could warm further into the 50s than the NBM is letting on. Heights aloft are expected to rise on Thursday and Friday as a ridge builds over the region in response to a shortwave trough that approaches through the Southwestern US as another trough dips into the Western US. Not expecting much, if anything, in terms of rain from the first trough; however, indications are that it could be breezy across the area. A cold front will move in as the first trough departs. Will have to watch the second trough that looks to impact the area through the weekend. Although there is some significant timing differences that one would expect for being 6+ days out, there is broad agreement among operational and their ensemble members that an Arctic front could move into the Panhandles as early as Saturday but more likely on Sunday. Will also have to watch to see if sufficient moisture is drawn in with this system because, if so, snow will be possible given that sufficiently cold air will likely be in place. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 MVFR ceilings is currently present at KAMA, and expecting MVFR ceilings to arrive at KDHT and KGUY soon. Showers will impact all terminals and thunderstorms will be possible as well, especially at KDHT. Ceilings at KAMA and KGUY will either remain at MVFR or drop to IFR or LIFR after the rain moves out. Will have to watch for the potential for fog tonight, but confidence is very low at this time. Vanden Bosch && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52