946
FXUS64 KAMA 050531
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1131 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Freezing fog remains possible across a majority of the
  Panhandles early Friday morning with potential to see visibility
  drop below 1/4 mile.

- Drier weather looks to hold over the Panhandles starting Friday
  with a warming trend looking to follow clear into next week.

- A quick back-door cold front will pause our warming trend
  Sunday, before return next week with highs in the near the upper
  60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The exiting of the system Thursday morning has seen the Panhandles
now settle under a more northwesterly upper-level flow. Present
model agreement expects this flow to hold through the weekend and
force dry weather over the Panhandles. However, dry does not
necessarily mean quite weather for the Panhandles as latest from
the CAMs continue to suggest the possibility of freezing fog
tonight into Friday morning. Currently best chances are going to
aligned with the Eastern Panhandles and any locations that
happened to have any snow depth still present earlier this
morning. Impact wise, the primary concern will be for pockets of
slick road conditions that may disrupt the Friday morning commute.
However, latest from the HREF has also seen probabilities of
visibility dropping below a quarter mile increase, with the
Eastern Panhandles now sitting around 50 to 65% for early Friday
morning. Otherwise, look for warmer temperatures to slowly make
their return alongside some breezy conditions Saturday. Look for
afternoon highs to be in the 50s to low 60s over these next two
day, with overnight lows still in the teens to 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Model agreement looks to see a closed upper-level low settle over
Hudson Bay in Canada, which in turn will keep northwesterly upper-
level flow over the Panhandles as we move into the new week. This
flow alongside weak ridging does look to put an end to the
Panhandles chances of active weather, with most ensembles keeping
precipitation chances less than 10% through the middle of next
week. These drier conditions will also prompt a bit of a warm up
for the Panhandles. However for Sunday, models do see a little bit
of a relapse thanks in part to a back-door cold front clipping our
northeast late Saturday into Sunday. Instead look for afternoon
temperatures to be closer to the 40s to low 50s for the day before
the warming kicks back in and push highs closer to the 50s and 60s
for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

As of late tonight, present satellite has seen fog already
forming across the far southeast corner of the Panhandles.
Currently local cameras in the area have also confirm that
visibility has significantly dropped in these areas with most
locations looking to already be under a mile. This fog has the
potential to develop across most of the Panhandles thanks to
snowfall yesterday, with impacts most likely to KDHT and KGUY at
this time. However, these impacts may be slightly less than what
is being seen in the southeast given the terminals had more time
to dry out. Still, present expectations do expect a visibility
drop with worse case scenario having terminals fall under 1 mile.
Fog should be quick to clear up beyond sunrise Friday morning
with VFR conditions holding for the day.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11