Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
164 FXUS64 KAMA 202308 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 508 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1250 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is in effect today for the southern Texas Panhandle. Hail is the primary hazard. Rain is expected to continue throughout the day, but will subside by tonight. Our next shot for showers and thunderstorms will be on Sunday. Cold air is expected to arrive to the Panhandles by Wednesday next week. How cold we could get is still a point of contention amongst guidance. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1250 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Mesoanalysis... Shower and thunderstorm activity continues across portions of the CWA this afternoon. The first few rounds have already produced precipitation totals ranging from 0.05 - 0.5" across the combined Panhandles. Given the slower progression of the system, the western half of the region has received the most rainfall. Meanwhile, the southeast has seen the least amount of rainfall so far, contrary to previous forecasts. However, they are not out of the running yet. CAPE has increase over the southeast zones of our FA, and the latest CAMs suggest that it should continue to rise for the next few hours, before the final wave of precipitation bowls through. MUCAPE in the southeast should range between 500-1000 J/kg by the peak heating hours of the day. This combined with ample moisture, increasing wind shear, and a strong source of lift should create a sufficient, yet brief, environment for organized convection. Hail is the primary hazard today given how cold temperatures are a loft. Storms do not have to be as tall as they normally are in the Spring and Summer to produce severe hail. Damaging winds are a lower end threat today, since they have to move further east to become surface based. Thunderstorm cores are likely to remain elevated until the SBCAPE can be realized. Forecast RAP mesoanalysis suggest there will be an expansion of SBCAPE across the area, which would increase the wind threat, while simultaneously introducing a conditional tornado threat. Forecast RAP soundings, alongside other CAMs, show low level wind shear increasing towards the evening. If storms can become surface based, a low end tornado threat would exist for any strong storm that enters the southeast Texas Panhandle this evening. Additionally, given the above average PWAT values in place across the CWA, any thunderstorm will be an efficient rain producer. We have seen evidence of this so far today, with a few mesonet sites receiving 0.5" of rain in a <30 minute timeframe. While general showers will likely not produce heavy rain, thunderstorms will be capable of doing so and may create minor flooding issues for areas they train over. Rest of forecast... As the system pushes off to the east, clouds will clear out behind it. Though tonight, low level clouds may linger a little while longer in the Oklahoma Panhandle. By Friday morning, the low clouds should disperse creating mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day. Highs are forecast to range between the upper 50`s in the north and the upper 60`s in the south. Surface winds will become breezy and northerly by the afternoon hours. PoPs will be absent for the remainder of the short term until we see our next system arrives on Sunday. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1250 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Long range guidance continues to show a favorable track for our next upper level system expected to enter the Panhandles on Sunday. PoPs for that time frame have already increase to 80% for some areas. While our confidence is incrementing as well, we will continue to monitor the trends to see if any significant changes occur. Later in the week, operational guidance is wavering on how strong the cold front will be once it arrives to the High Plains. For now, there is still a chance that highs stay below 60 degrees area wide, while morning lows decrease back below freezing starting Wednesday. Earlier model runs showed signs of possible winter precipitation in the northern zones of our CWA. While we cannot completely rule that out at this time, the NBM has removed mentionable PoPs from that time frame. Until we see better model consensus for winter precipitation, we will leave the NBM as is. Rangel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 500 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 A weather system continues to move across the region causing low clouds with rain showers. The rain showers will persist into the early evening before dissipating leaving dry conditions. The low clouds have a moderate to high chance of persisting through the overnight into the morning of Friday. KAMA will be near the boundary of the low clouds and can vary between IFR or VFR as the deck moves in or out. The current TAF reflect the better VFR conditions as the chances are of this are higher but this can easily change. The winds will shift to the NW following the passage of the cold front during the morning of Friday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...98