Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
342 FXUS64 KAMA 201132 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 532 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 - Mostly showers are expected across the area today, but a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall totals greater than one inch will be possible in spots. - Another system will provide additional rain chances Saturday night into Monday across the Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Promising rain chances are nearly here, with the responsible upper level system beginning to swing westward from the Colorado Plateau u and over the Plains. The main event of more numerous showers is anticipated to spread from southwest to northeast this morning, lasting off and on through the day. Most precipitation should be in the form of spotty light to moderate showers, however there is the potential for pockets of thunderstorms to develop within narrow lines of convection. If even marginal instability can materialize (500-750 J/kg MUCAPE), a rogue strong storm or two can`t be ruled out with potential for heavier rain and small hail. This will be difficult though, especially considering forecast highs ranging from 50s in the northwest to 60s in the southeast (where best storm chances exist). In spite of that, any showers today will have ample moisture to be quite efficient rain producers, thanks to PWATs approaching or exceeding 1". Even if deeper organized convection fails to form, several runs of hi-res models show a narrow swath of 0.5-1.0" rainfall unfolding from the aforementioned bands of weak convection. The main question today is, where will these primary bands of rain occur? Central to eastern portions of the Texas Panhandle have the greatest odds, with 40-70% probabilities to exceed 1" of rain within the main bands. CAMs also show localized potential for rogue totals up to 2" (10-20% chance), but that would likely require one of the hypothetical stronger embedded thunderstorms to develop. Portions of the western and northern combined Panhandles, as well as anywhere else that misses out on the heavier bands, will still have 40-70% chances to see 1/4" of rain or more. As the system lifts northeast over the region tonight, it will pull a dry slot overhead that will snuff out moisture, causing activity to wane into Friday Morning. Friday`s temperatures will be very similar to today, with a 10-20 mph northerly breeze behind a cold front. Overnight lows into Saturday morning will be a few degrees cooler in the 30s across the Panhandles. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 After a sleepy, seasonal Saturday, confidence is quickly rising with the next system set to bring rain potential to the Panhandles. Ensemble data depicts a similar system to today taking a similar track and progression with similarly significant moisture return associated with it. All these factors are indicative enough to support 40-70% rain chances Saturday night through Sunday night across a majority of the Panhandles. Once again, timing and track of the low will still need to be ironed out, along with potential for a dry slot to impact rainfall. In general though, there are several reasons to be optimistic about this next weather maker. Once it clears out, model agreement drastically declines in regards to the synoptic pattern. The highest confidence aspect of the forecast early next week resides in near average temperatures in the 50s and 60s each day. Mid to late week could find cooler air masses reaching the region, dipping temperatures below average for a change. Harrel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 VFR conditions are expected to start the 12Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Conditions should quickly deteriorate between 12Z and 18Z with MVFR cigs moving into all sites. IFR cigs at times could move into TAF sites late morning into the afternoon hours. VFR conditions should eventually return towards the end of the TAF period for KAMA/KDHT. Perhaps MVFR cigs lingering for KGUY through the end of the TAF period. Winds will range from southeasterly to southwesterly from 5-15 kts. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...29