357
FXUS64 KAMA 271837
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1237 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

- Breezy and gusty north winds expected behind a cold front for
  Saturday. This front is expected to bring in a cold airmass that
  is expected to stick around for a couple of days.

- Well below normal temperatures expected Sunday morning into
  Tuesday morning.

- Low chance for snow/wintry mix Sunday night into Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A fairly quiet rest of today with highs right around normal in the
50s.  Light southeast winds around 5 to 10 mph will continue through
the evening.  Some increased moisture will be drawn up in the
southwest this evening and that will lead to the potential for some
low clouds and maybe even some fog tonight.  Mid and high clouds
will expand over the Panhandles as well on Friday.  This may keep
the eastern Panhandles under cloud cover most of the day, and
therefore have pulled high temperatures back a bit from NBM.  Still
given breezy south winds ahead of a surface low, the overall highs
are expected to be on the mild side in the mid to upper 50s. Further
west, we may get some afternoon sun breaks and that will help
usher in some better mixing and bring those highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Lows on Friday night are expected to dip into the
lower 30s for the north to lower 40s in the southeast. That being
said, most of the night across the south will be on the mild side
until the cold front pushes through.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Cold front is projected to move through early Saturday morning in
the northwest and track south through the rest of the Panhandles by
mid to late morning.  With a pretty good cold air mass over the
Great Lakes region, that will lead to a fairly strong cold air push
on the back side of the shortwave that`s set up to move through on
Saturday.  Given the earlier start to the cold air push on Saturday
have lowered highs to NBM 25th percentile, and increase winds behind
the front to NBM 75th percentile.  Highs on Saturday now look to be
in the lower 40s to lower 50s, and  this is early on Saturday as the
front is approaching.  But given the strong cold air advection, the
reality is it`s going to feel like it`s in the 30s to start off and
then feel like the 20s to teens by the evening, as we will just
continue to get colder through the day.  By nightfall winds will
start to relax  more around 10 mph, bit it will still be cool enough
that the Saturday night wind chills may get down in the single
digits.

Sunday winds will shift more out of the southeast around 5 to 10 mph
with mostly cloudy skies that will keep the temps in the lower to
mid 30s. Sunday night through Tuesday will be the time frame to
keep an eye on as there will be another disturbance that currently
looks more favored ~70% chance to just clip the northern
Panhandles. It will help hold the colder air in across all areas,
but as far as moisture goes the probabilities are more favored in
the northeast Panhandles, and that moisture looks quite limited at
this time. A strong positive tilt to this shortwave that moves
through on Monday doesn`t favor the Panhandles for precipitation,
but there`s still a low chance (20%) that the system tracks
further south and would support moisture to the central and
southern Panhandles, which would be cold enough to be snow. But
the current track brings the best chances to the central and
eastern OK Panhandle, with the northeast TX Panhandle in play as
well. Impacts look to be minor as any snow accumulations are
expected to be around an inch or less for these areas.

Tuesday and Wednesday, as the system exits the area we`ll start to
transition back to more of a zonal flow, and temperatures look to
rebound back in the 50s with dry conditions.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites.  We are looking
at some possible low clouds at KAMA in the early morning hours
around 14-16z where cigs are expected to go MVFR, but should return
VFR by 17z.  Overall winds will be in the 7-15kt range and start out
of the southeast but then turn more south southwest toward the
end of the TAF period, and winds will pick up in the 12-17kt range
with gusts near 30kts after 16z.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89