505
FXUS64 KAMA 191809
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1209 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Potentially wetting rains and cooler temperatures will arrive
  to the Panhandles starting Wed night through Thu. A low chance
  for some localized flooding will need to be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Moisture is (knock knock) knocking on the Panhandles` door today,
gradually streaming in ahead of the approaching closed low
currently passing over southern California. Dew pts and PWATs are
still pitiful tonight (30s dew pts and PWATs <0.5"), but that will
change through the day as southwest flow ushers in positive 700mb
theta-e advection to the region. Skies will be cloudy as a
result, but temperatures should warm into the 70s again for a
majority of the area. The first wave of energy ahead of the low
should get to the Panhandles later this morning and afternoon, and
may be enough to generate some scattered light showers, with
perhaps a few weak storms over eastern counties based on recent
CAM runs (15-30% POPs).

After what should be a lapse in activity overnight, rounds of more
numerous areas of light to moderate showers with embedded thunder
are anticipated to spread from southwest to northeast for much of
Thursday. Most precipitation should still be in the form of general
showers, however there is the potential for pockets of stronger
convection to develop if sufficient instability could materialize
this far north. Marginal instability would be the best case scenario
(500-750 J/kg MUCAPE), especially considering forecast highs in the
50s and 60s. In spite of that, any stronger storms tomorrow will
have ample moisture to be quite efficient rain producers thanks to
PWATs likely reaching or exceeding 0.75-1.0". Even if deeper
organized convection fails to form, multiple rounds of moderate
rain could still be enough to help some locations see >1" of
rainfall Thursday. Central to eastern portions of the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles have 20-50% probabilities to exceed 1" of
rain, with CAMs showing localized potential for isolated totals up
to 2" (10-20% chance). Realistic low-end totals for those that
receive rain will be in the one to two tenths of an inch range,
while there is a less than 10% chance for rogue totals >2".
Activity will wane Thursday night into Friday as the system lifts
northeast over the region, pulling a dry slot overhead that will
snuff out moisture.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Temperatures will settle in typical fall ranges later this week into
next, topping out in the 50s and 60s, behind a cold front arriving
Friday. Moisture will briefly take a vacation from our neck of
the Lone Star State Saturday, but long range models have persisted
suggestions that we may be keeping an active stretch of weather
going early next week. Several discrepancies exist between models
regarding the track and timing of this system, but most data sets
indicate it may pan out similarly to this week`s disturbance.
Rain chances are on the rise and looking rather promising next
Sun- Mon, ranging from 20-50% across the forecast area. Northwest
flow behind this system would be conducive for cooler air masses
to sag south over the region, further reinforcing the return of
fall temperatures. This translates to potential highs in the 40s &
50s by mid next week, with lows in the 20s and 30s.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR conditions continue for the rest of the day for all TAF sites.
Mid-level clouds are forecast to stay around 5,000 ft or higher
this afternoon and ceilings should rise by the evening.
Precipitation should be very light if occurs over any TAF site. No
mentions were made due to low confidence of impacts. Wind speeds
should become breezy at all terminals this afternoon. The wind
direction is westerly, but will slowly become southwesterly as the
day progresses.

Tomorrow, a low chance for MVFR (or lower) flight conditions
exists before 18Z. Afterwards, expect conditions to deteriorate as
precipitation continues and ceilings drop. Winds will be light
tomorrow as well; however, this may lead to a reduction of
visibility due to the high moisture in the lower levels of the
atmosphere.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...55