338
FXUS64 KAMA 170726
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
226 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

As of early this morning, latest radar and satellite were watching
lingering showers slowly dissipated out of the southeastern
portions of the Panhandles. Once these showers fully dissipate,
drier conditions are expected to mover in as models see a ridge
build in behind the system yesterday and hold clear through the
weekend. However one impact that may need to be on the look out
for this early morning, will be the potential for patchy fog or
low-level stratus decks. Currently many of the models do expected
there to be plenty of moisture present clear into the late morning
hours. However, confidence in this is not too high as many of
those same model do not expect the low-level cap needed to trap
said moisture to be present, which make sense since we are still
unstable enough for showers to continue. For now, have left any
mention of fog or low cloud decks out of the forecast due to this
lack of confidence. Otherwise, expected dry and warm weather to be
the theme as we close out this week. Expected temperatures to
begin to rise today with many locations looking to push into mid
80s by this afternoon. Meanwhile, Saturday takes it even further
with much of the Panhandles reaching the low 90s for the afternoon
high temperatures, As for our notorious hot spot that is the Palo
Duro Canyon, the lack of winds expected Saturday could easily see
the canyon floor heat up into the mid to upper 90s for the day.


Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A ridge has a high chance of being the dominate feature across the
southern plains to start off next week. This will bring sunny and
fair weather to the panhandles for both Sunday and Monday.
Conditions under this ridge will be hot with 90s across the
panhandles with even a few of the hottest spots hitting the low
100s. Gusty winds can be expected to start off next week as a
trough deepens over western CONUS setting up a tight pressure
gradient across the panhandles. Tuesday and Wednesday should see
the trough move into the southern plain becoming the dominate
feature across the panhandles. This will lead to a cool down in
the temperatures with the highs falling back to the 80s and 90s.
Some moisture from the trough could enter the panhandles during
this time which would result in increased cloud cover. If enough
moisture manages to push into the panhandles then a rain showers
and thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Winds during this time will
likely remain gusty but overall weaker than Sunday and Monday.
Thursday and Friday the pattern becomes uncertain and hard to pin
down. Overall trend indicate that these days should be on the
drier side with fair weather. Temperatures currently favor a
warming trend with highs increasing back to the 80s and 90s. Winds
should continue to follow the trend of gusty during the daytime
hours.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

As of midnight, latest radar and satellite were seeing a handful
of light showers spread across the southeast portions of the
Panhandles. However, none of the terminals are expected to see any
major impacts from these showers with the overnight expected to
stick with high based cloud decks. There is a chance, given how
much residual moisture is present, that patchy fog or low-level
stratus decks could form by the early morning hours. However,
confidence isn`t the greatest for that possibility, so have
chosen to leave mention out of the current package. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions to hold with Friday turning towards drier
weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  56  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  85  56  93  61 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              82  53  87  53 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  86  58  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              85  54  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  82  54  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               79  56  90  60 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 83  50  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  84  53  90  58 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                83  54  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                83  58  92  62 /   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   82  58  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                82  56  91  62 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              82  56  92  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...11