Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 011016
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
516 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS /DETAILS IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/ AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE
FORM OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS...AND A LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP /AS IT IS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR
EAST..BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS METEOROLOGICAL REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND REDUCE CONCERNS FOR
A CAP...AND ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
BE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY...AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT...AND TEMPERATURES OF 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE 20FT WINDS...STILL COULD BE MARGINAL WITH THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. AT
ANY RATE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL
MEET THE CRITERIA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF THIS AREA DOES
NOT REACH THE FORECASTED HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THIS AREA
COULD ALSO SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY...AND ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  49  81  42  59 /  10  10   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  90  48  70  41  59 /  20  20   5  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              88  43  71  35  54 /   5   5   5  20  10
BORGER TX                  91  52  79  43  60 /  10  10   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              93  47  80  41  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  90  49  82  42  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               90  51  86  46  62 /  20  20   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 89  44  77  38  57 /   5   5   5  10   5
GUYMON OK                  88  46  72  39  58 /  10  10   5  20  10
HEREFORD TX                89  46  83  40  60 /   5   5   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                89  52  76  44  60 /  20  20   5  10   5
PAMPA TX                   90  49  79  42  58 /  10  10   5  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                90  53  87  48  62 /  20  20   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              91  57  89  52  65 /  20  20   5  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

02/18





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