Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 050231
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
931 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION CONTINUES TO BE ON THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON AS THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD WHILE THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OVER OUR
REGION MOVES SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION BY EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THE CHANGING FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR
A SFC TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN WEST OF OUR AREA TO GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
BUILD CLOSER TO OUR REGION AND MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BY
MONDAY.

BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SOUTHERLY WINDS BTWN 10 TO 20 KTS WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL STREAMING IN FROM NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE THRU 05/15Z. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...CUMULUS BUILDUPS AOA
10K FT AGL WILL OCCUR AFT 05/15Z THRU SUNSET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS. THOUGH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY
FORM IN THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...HAVE OPTED TO NOT
MENTION IN TAFS GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SATURDAY NIGHT.

BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  92  68  93  68 /   5   5   5  20  20
BEAVER OK                  71  97  71  97  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              65  91  65  91  61 /  10  10  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  71  93  72  96  72 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              67  93  67  95  66 /  10   5   5  20  20
CANYON TX                  65  91  67  93  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
CLARENDON TX               67  95  69  95  68 /   0   5   5  20  10
DALHART TX                 66  92  65  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  69  95  69  96  66 /  10   5   5  20  20
HEREFORD TX                66  91  66  93  67 /  10   5   5  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                70  96  72  97  69 /   0   5   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  94  68  94  68 /   5   0   5  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  95  71  96  70 /   0   0   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              69  97  71  98  71 /   0   0   5  10   5

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM.  ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.  INSTABILITY AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING FURTHER EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...LEADING TO LOW CERTAINTY IN THESE PERIODS.  WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

98/15


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