Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 130433 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE LIFR RANGE ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT THE GUY TAF SITE
ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES GOING DOWN TO AROUND 3 MILES. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT AMA WITH BR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH. BELIEVE NOW THAT DHT WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL LEAVE ALL OF THE TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY
AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. DHT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG IN THE MVFR RANGE.
AMA WILL ALSO HAVE VISIBILITIES REDUCED INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN
FOG...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE COME LIFR CIGS NEAR. FOR NOW HAVE
MENTIONED A SCATTERED GROUP AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING. AT GUY...THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED WITH
CIGS GETTING DOWN INTO THE LIFR RANGE AND VISIBILITIES DOWN AROUND 3
MILES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MENTIONED THE LOW CIGS AT GUY AS
CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THERE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD START TO
CLEAR UP BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WITH A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ON
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO TRY AND HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE TENDENCY OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO HAS BEEN FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO COME IN
WARMER...AND DEW POINTS TO COME IN LOWER. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING SUNDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60. NEXT THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EVEN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TOMORROW MORNING IS THE
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER TYPE IN THIS FORECAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES COULD SEE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT EACH OF THE DAYS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE BE
MORE DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES TOMORROW AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/18


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