Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231743 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN A FEW PLACES. COULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNRISE.

NF

AVIATION...
DENSE FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO LIFR OR VLIFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AT KDHT AND KGUY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
UNTIL THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFT.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND
TODAY AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (BY AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES) WILL BE
THE RESULT OF THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH. SOME CIRRUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND FORCING WILL BE MEAGER. ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS FURTHER EAST IN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION...A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ALSO
DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
JUST ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN THE WX GRIDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONTAL MAY END UP BEING THE
GREATEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




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