Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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549
FXUS64 KAMA 011106
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
606 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.UPDATE...Subtle perturbations in the upper levels and slight height
falls are providing enough lift to cause isolated light rain showers
to form across the northern and eastern combined Panhandles. Have
updated the PoP grids and adjusted the sky grids based upon present
trends.

Bieda

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period, with possible CIG AOA 12k ft AGL mainly affecting
KGUY. Passing weak disturbances aloft may cause isolated rain showers
to form, but coverage is sparse and did not mention at any TAF sites.
Otherwise, southerly winds BTWN 10 to 20 kts is expected.

Bieda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level shortwave will deflate the ridging over the Panhandles
on Saturday. This will bring the northeastern Panhandles a slight
chance for some showers and thunderstorms this evening. Any storms
that do form should remain below severe levels as bulk shear is only
moderate and very little instability should be present. High pressure
will again build in on Sunday while low pressure digs into the
western CONUS. By Monday models are in discrepancy on location and
how fast the trough closes off. For the Panhandles, the winds will
switch from NW flow aloft to a SW flow as the low crosses the
Northern Rockies. This will also bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms for the area. These storms could become severe as bulk
shear increases to 35 to 40kts. While instability is still weak, mid-
level lapse rates are decent. The models have consistently been in
disagreement with this system; however, they continue to trend
towards a solution where the low stays more northerly. By Tuesday,
the models indicate the low will lift even more northward into the
northern Great Plains and Canada. There is quite a bit of
disagreement on the southward depth of the affect of the low
pressure. Most of the models are progging a dry line feature across
the Panhandles and thus dryslotting the area for Tuesday. The GFS
holds the dryline back around the edge of the Caprock and allows for
some storms to form in the Panhandles. With so much uncertainty
between models and the placement of the low, have left a slight
chance for storms in the eastern zones for now. If storms do form,
they have a good potential to become severe as instability increases
greatly and bulk shear increases to 40 to 45kts. Lapse rates also
steepen. As the low moves away, ridging builds in through the end of
the week and another trough approaches the west coast.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

98/16



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