Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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000 FXUS64 KAMA 210531 AAC AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1131 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009 .UPDATE... PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THIS IN MIND...MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE. JOHNSON && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT BUT FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AROUND MIDDAY DUE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROF. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. JOHNSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ UPDATE... THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH TX MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE LEE TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AND NORTH...WITH MID 30S EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST. MIN TEMPS MAY BE REACHED A BIT EARLY THAN CLIMO TONIGHT GIVEN THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING A LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS IN MANY AREAS. JOHNSON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ AVIATION... THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE HILL COUNTRY HAS RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS MEANS CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNRISE...INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS BY MIDDAY AS THE LEE TROF INTENSIFIES. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 30 KTS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. JOHNSON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ DISCUSSION... ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST ONCE AGAIN REMAINS DRY FOR THE SEVEN DAYS...ONLY WITH A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS TO SPEAK OF. SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH TOMORROW WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SERVE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE CWA. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN STORE ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM. 12Z GFS/EUROPEAN ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE EUROPEAN IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWLY MOVES UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION/S MID SECTION. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD STILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES DRY AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCARCE ACROSS OUR AREA. A FRONT OR TWO STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. TAB FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TAB && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 24/08
