Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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221
FXUS64 KAMA 251136
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
536 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs...
Apart from a few hours of low-level wind shear at the beginning of
this forecast, good flying weather expected for the next 24 hours.
KAMA radar continues to sample 35 kt northeast winds associated
with post-frontal low-level jet departing to our south at this
time.

Otherwise, light north surface winds will trend to light southeast
this afternoon, with continued veering to southwest this evening.
No clouds other than cirrus expected.  No visibility restrictions
foreseen.  VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The overall upper level pattern currently is slight troughing to
the east and similar ridging to the west with an area of high
pressure over the Baja Peninsula. With this setting up the
Panhandles to be in northwest flow aloft, a couple shortwaves
will speed across the Panhandles today with little more fanfare
than some mid to high clouds. Tomorrow, the ridging will shift
east and by Monday, the ridge axis will be over the Great Plains.
This will set the area up for southwest flow. Combining this with
strong downsloping winds, will bring possible record temps on
Monday along with possible fire weather conditions which will be
discussed further below. Meanwhile, the next trough/closed low
looks to move onshore into central California Monday. Models
continue to move into more agreement and by Tuesday morning have
a closed low aimed right at the Panhandles. There is still a bit
of difference in timing/location, but not much at this point. The
low looks to cross the area, but by its position, the upper level
jet will be placing the area in the left entrance region. Thus,
have removed the slight chance of pops for Tuesday night as upper
levels will be in confluence, leaving us dry.

After the low pressure system and associated cold front passes,
some slight troughing will push across the northern Plains on
Wednesday and send another front our way Thursday. This will
simply reinforce some of the cooler air to drop temps 10 degrees
and leave us near climo, instead of the above climo temps from the
rest of the week. The end of the week will see the next system
getting ready to come into the southwest US.

Beat

FIRE WEATHER...
Monday looks to have record high temps, due to southwest flow.
Winds will be in the 15-25 mph range. RH values will generally be
between 15 and 20 percent, thus leaving most of the area in
elevated conditions. The northwest Panhandles could see RH values
drop into the low teens or single digits; however, this is also
the area to have winds lower during the afternoon hours as the
trough axis is close. This will prevent critical conditions if it
pans out. If the low goes further northward and winds are
stronger, this area could see critical conditions.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  38  72  44  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  62  35  75  40  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              62  36  76  41  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  65  43  74  44  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              65  35  74  41  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  65  37  72  43  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               67  36  73  43  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 65  36  74  38  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  63  35  74  40  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                67  38  72  42  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                63  36  73  43  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   65  39  72  44  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                66  33  71  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              67  34  73  41  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/16



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