288
FXUS65 KPUB 161056
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
356 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quick round of mountain snows and strong winds will impact the
  area late this afternoon and tonight. Intense snowfall rates
  and impacts to travel will be possible for the Eastern San
  Juans this evening.

- Gusty winds over the I-25 corridor on Monday with gusts up to
  35 mph.

- Potential for a higher impact system arrives on Thursday with
  heavy snow over the mountains and low possibility of snow
  over the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Upper low over southern CA will eject eastward into the Great
Basin this evening and into northern CO and WY overnight. Energy
in the base of the trough pivots northeastward across western
and northern portions of the southern CO during the evening.
This will spread a fast moving round of snow into the
Continental Divide, spilling over into the Sangre De Cristo
range this evening. Greatest impacts will be across the eastern
San Juans, as forcing gets amplified by strong southwesterly
orographic ascent. This will be maximized during the 00z to 06z
window tonight (5 PM to 11 PM MST). Model soundings are quite
unstable showing a few hundred J/kg of CAPE as cooling aloft and
the jet streak pivots overhead. Snow Squall parameters are quite
high with the potential for thunder snow and a period of brief
convectively enhanced snowfall rates as snow levels get quickly
driven down from around 10000 feet during the afternoon to 8000
feet during the evening. High res models show a convective line
taking shape along the trough axis which pivots to the northeast
across the mountains, then quickly diminishes as it comes off
the southeast mountains into the adjacent plains where
downslope flow dominates. Overall, snowfall amounts are on the
low end side of advisory criteria for the eastern San Juans, but
given the convective instability, potential for briefly intense
snowfall, and strong winds with blowing snow, have opted for a
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this evening to 5 AM Monday to
highlight the quickly deteriorating travel conditions. Most of
the accumulating snow will be done by 11 PM, so the majority of
the travel impacts will be during the evening with lingering
light snow and winds keeping conditions poor at times into the
early morning hours. Accumulations will range from 2 to 8 inches
across the eastern San Juans.

A quick round of wind driven snow will be possible across the
remainder of the mountains as well, but snowfall totals will be
considerably less. Storm totals of up to 4 inches will be
possible across the Continental Divide with up to 2 inches
possible for the southeast mountains.

The southeast plains will remain dry under the influence of
westerly downslope flow on the southern periphery of the system.
There will be a period of near high wind criteria along the lee
of the southeast mountains into the I-25 corridor late tonight
into early Monday morning as the trough axis swings through and
downward forcing mixes the winds aloft down. HREF shows very
spotty probabilities of up to 50% for gusts in excess of 58 mph
along the very western fringes of the I-25 corridor zones.
Probabilities of reaching high wind criteria over the mountain
zones (75 mph or greater) is less than 10 percent. Cross-
sections do not look favorable for mountain wave induced high
winds with too much forward shear aloft. Given the spotty
coverage and marginal nature of the potential for high wind
gusts, no high wind highlights are anticipated at this time,
though a few sporadic gusts to near 60 mph west of I-25 will be
possible during the overnight hours.

Otherwise, expect another mild day today ahead of the system
with highs in the 70s across the plains, and 50s and 60s for the
valleys, 30s and 40s across the mountains. Downslope mixing
will keep lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s for the I-25 corridor
and portions of the southeast plains tonight while the
mountains cool into the 20s and teens. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Monday:

A closed low will continue to propagate over northwestern Colorado.
To the southeast of the closed low will be a small, but relatively
strong jet that will continue over the Palmer Divide and the
Raton Mesa. The jet streak will bring gusty winds over mountains
and the eastern plains, with the strongest winds closer to the
mountains along the I-25 corridor, especially over the gap flow
areas along Highway 50 and Highway 160. Wind gusts of around 35
MPH are expected over Fremont and Huerfano Counties. Elevated
fire weather conditions are expected over the southern I-25
corridor, but meteorological conditions aren`t expected to hit 3
hours of meeting RFW criteria, therefore no fire weather
products will be issued. Everywhere else the RH values are
expected to be too high. Lingering rain and snow showers are
expected over the Continental Divide, but will dissipate as the
day continues. High temperatures will still be well above normal
for this time of year, but cooler than what Saturday and Sunday
were. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s over
the plains and 40s to 50s over the mountain valleys.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

A couple of less active weather days are expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday, as upper level ridging and height rises form over
Colorado. Perhaps some showers over the eastern San Juans on
Wednesday afternoon as the next closed low begins to impact the
Continental Divide. Temperatures will still remain well above
average for this time of year with high temperatures in the upper
50s to upper 60s over the plains and the 40s to 50s over the
mountain valleys.

Thursday through Saturday:

This is where the forecast get pretty uncertain, though there are
some consistencies between guidance that needs to be pointed out.
The first is that extended guidance resolves some sort of wave
beginning to impact the western half of the region on Wednesday and
passing over the plains on Thursday. So there is expected to be
impacts from the wave passing of some sort and a cool down. However,
the difference begins to show itself in the intensity and track. The
GFS has the most aggressive solution with a proper rapidly
intensifying cyclone developing over the High Plains bringing
widespread rainfall over southern Colorado and snow over the Palmer
Divide and the Raton Mesa (and of course the mountains), whereas the
ECMWF has more an open wave. The ECMWF outputs low amounts of snow
over the mountains, no snow over the plains, and a lot less
rainfall. I am unsure of which one is more correct, but there is
plenty of time to iron out the details.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Light winds and VFR conditions today will transition towards
breezy southerly winds late this afternoon and evening,
particularly for KALS where gusts up to 30 kts will be possible
after 23z. A line of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms
will move across the San Luis Valley during the evening bringing
a chance for -SHRA at KALS during the evening. This could
briefly enhance wind gusts to around 45 kts during the evening.
Showers will dissipate as they spread off the southeast
mountains into the adjacent plains with KCOS and KPUB not likely
to see any precipitation and only bouts of VFR cloudiness at
times. Westerly winds will spread into both KCOS and KPUB
terminals late tonight with brief sporadic gusts up to 35 kts
possible after 06z. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
Monday for COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...KT