Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
253 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Snow is moving northward across the CWA and will be approaching the
Hwy 12 corridor in the next hour or so. Visibility has been down to
3/4SM at times in various obs, so the snow rates are pretty decent.
Have been making slight forecast edits throughout the day to account
for the slower onset of snow, more so for northern areas of the CWA.
Overall, the snow amounts have not changed much and still expecting
a general 2 to 5 inches in the advisory area. The slower onset
though did lead to a longer end time for the northern segment of the
Winter Weather Advisory, which will now be at 09Z. Models agree in
keeping snowfall across the northern CWA longer into the night.
Current radar imagery does show moderate to sometimes heavy snow
bands working their way northward across southeast SD and should be
affecting the southeast CWA over the next few hours. This is in line
with where the heaviest snow is forecast over our CWA, so perhaps
things are panning out quite well for the time being.

For Friday, surface high pressure will build east across the area,
bringing dry conditions and light winds by the afternoon hours.
Current forecast highs are in the lower 20s, but will once again
have to consider the effects of snow cover and light winds and may
have to lower temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

An upper trough will dominate the extended forecast. Numerous
shortwaves will eject out of the trough over the next week. When
coupled with sfc low pressure, enough forcing will be generated to
see some decent snow totals. The main system of concern is still the
low that moves through the Plains on Thursday. Currently forecast
movement of the sfc low and associated upper low will keep most of
the snow across the southern and eastern cwa. Areas along and east
of I-29 could see 3 to 5 inches of fresh snow with 1 to 3 inches
from the James valley to the Missouri River. Before the region
saturates, a brief period of freezing drizzle may affect areas from
Pierre to Aberdeen on Saturday morning. The system will be quick
moving, exiting on Sat evening.

High pressure at the sfc will keep the remainder of the period
mostly dry. Temperatures will remain below average through end of
the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

MVFR CIGs have arrived in KATY and expect this CIG category to
overspread the rest of the TAF sites later this afternoon into
early evening. -SN/SN will also move northward across the area
this afternoon, with IFR/MVFR VSBY and even LIFR VSBY at times.
CIGs may also dip into IFR during the peak of snowfall this
evening. Expect improving conditions after 06Z tonight and
especially by Friday morning.


SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for SDZ005>008-010-

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.



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