Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260142 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
842 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE AFTERNOON MIXED-LAYER STRATO-CU OVER NORTH DAKOTA HAS
CONGEALED INTO A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND COVERS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THIS CWA. CONSENSUS IS THAT THE CLOUD-COVER WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
STILL REACHING CURRENTLY FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE
RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY-COVER THIS EVENING...NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW OBS STILL SEEING WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SO WILL LET HEADLINE RIDE FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA SAW SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 OR EVEN 50 MPH. TRENDS ARE DOWN IN
SPEEDS AND IMAGINE HEADLINE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BEFORE OR
NEAR ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME.

FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FIRST...THE ONE TOMORROW IS SHOWING
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT
AND TRACK OF BEST FORCING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD. HAVE INCREASED POPS QUITE
A BIT OVER THE WESTERN CWA DUE TO THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO RAIN. COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH
FOR MOST AREAS. HIGHS MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...IT WILL BE BASED ON HOW LONG CLOUD COVER
LINGERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SETUP
OF SNOW CHANCES IN THE MORNING THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...IT APPEARS LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD STAY
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN
QUICKLY GETS PUSHED EAST BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL THEN BE DOMINANT UNTIL ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH LOW PRESSURE DIGGING DOWN THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS H85 TEMPS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE ZERO. GENERALLY LOOKING AT
50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS...AND MAY SEE SOME 70S ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH BOTH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR STRATUS OVER KABR/KATY IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS...LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. KATY MAY
SEE AN OCCASIONAL VARIANCE IN CIGS /BETWEEN 2500FT-3500FT AGL/
OVERNIGHT. KMBG/KPIR ARE P6SM SKC AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL
EARLY TO MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING A FEW
HOURS OF RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL TO THESE TWO TERMINALS...ALONG WITH A
LOWERING OF FLT CAT DOWN FROM VFR TO MVFR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN






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