Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 260856
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
356 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Surface high pressure over the region early this morning is
providing clear skies and generally light winds. Ideal radiational
cooling in many areas are allowing temps to fall well into the 40s.
A couple records may be in jeopardy once again by sunrise. This high
pressure will remain over the region today and be the main influence
on our pleasant conditions. Winds will stay generally light today
with dry conditions.

Main focus will be Tuesday into Tuesday night as a frontal boundary
approaches the region. Initially, gusty southerly winds will develop
through the day Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of
the front. Low level moisture increases as well and dewpoints will
try to increase to around 60 degrees. Shear and instability will
increase through the afternoon, with convective initiation forecast
to be across western SD near the frontal boundary. Convection is
expected to grow upscale into one or more MCS`s as they travel
eastward across the CWA, aided by a strong 60 knot southerly low
level jet. A ribbon of moderate instability and effective shear
moves east into the James valley, but then seems to weaken across
eastern SD. Therefore, have questions about severe threat east of
the James valley. Frontal boundary looks to be over the eastern CWA
by 12Z Wednesday, then will continue to push east into MN by
afternoon. Therefore, anticipate rain chances continuing just for
eastern areas as drier air will be moving into the CWA west of the
James valley by late morning and through the afternoon. Models also
show a weak shortwave moving through eastern areas Wednesday which
may bring additional shower development during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Upper level zonal flow will be over the region to start the extended
period. A couple of shortwaves and associated energy will track
through Thursday night through the day Saturday, before northwest
flow becomes dominant at the end of the period. At the surface, weak
broad low pressure will keep small chances for showers and
thunderstorms warranted through much of the period, with some better
chances expected Thursday night into Friday when a more well defined
frontal boundary looks to move through.

Somewhat below normal temperatures are expected for much of the
period, with highs mainly in the 70s. May see the beginnings of a
warming trend late in the period with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s on Sunday. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR conditions will prevail overnight and through the day Monday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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