


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
848 FXUS63 KABR 161739 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Markedly cooler midweek temperatures with highs 15 to 20 degrees below normal today and 10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday. - There is a 30-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday morning. No severe weather is anticipated. - More unsettled weather returns Sunday into Monday, Tuesday night, and again Thursday, with around a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Organized severe weather may return Sunday or Sunday evening to mainly central SD. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 We`re continuing to monitor the light rain over central SD as it attempts to push into northwestern SD this afternoon. We also had a brief period of light rain or drizzle at ATY late this morning. Otherwise, plenty of clouds will remain through the daytime hours. There is lingering smoke showing up on the latest HRRR forecast, but it looks mainly elevated. This looks representative of the current conditions, given airnow webpage showing little to no readings on the PM2.5 AQI. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A sfc trough coupled with an upper trough is bringing another wave of showers and thunderstorms into the region from the west this morning. The NBM and about half of the hi-res CAMs dissipate this precip over the northeastern cwa today, keeping the bulk of it across central SD. On the other hand, the chance is non-zero given the NSSL WRF, NAMNest and NBM 90th solutions. It will be working against sfc high pressure building into the region from the north and west. Mid level moisture appears to remain ample through at least 21z to offer some support for showers. With the upper trough and the cloud cover, temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below climo averages this afternoon, topping out only in the 60s. As the region dries out tonight with a 1022mb high directly overhead, there could be some fog development for Thursday morning given the light winds before 15z. Return flow begins to develop by 18z as the high slowly shifts east into MN and a warm front develops along the southwestern SD/NE border, extending off a Rocky Mountain low in Wyoming. High temperatures will remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal, however. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Zonal flow continues aloft as a shortwave will push west to east along the northern CONUS/Canadian border Thursday night and Friday with mid level winds of 40-50kts, associated with this wave, skirting across northern SD into ND/MN during this time. This looks to interact with the formation of a LLJ (20-30kts) over central SD, east of a lee low, late Thursday night. This LLJ is forecasted to track eastward over the CWA through early Friday as the lee low tracks south and over the central Plains by Friday evening. By Saturday morning a frontal boundary will lie to our south and a high pressure system to our north over ND/Canada. With this setup, models indicate the return of showers and thunderstorms mainly over north central SD late Thursday night (NBM pops of 30-50%) with the precip pushing eastward across the CWA through the day with the shortwave. Ongoing chances of precip are possible over the southern to eastern CWA Saturday morning, north of this front. CSU and NSSL machine learning guidance both indicate a 5-15% chance of severe weather Friday over the CWA while CIPS keeps the threat to our west. However, surface convergence and forcing aloft looks to be pretty subtle for anything widespread at this point. A weak ridge moves in behind the exiting shortwave and over the Northern Plains Saturday through early Sunday. The surface high will push eastward and over ~MN/Ontario by early Sunday. Clusters indicate a slight "baggy" -PNA pattern next week over the northern CONUS with several embedded waves/pulses pushing eastward in this ongoing zonal flow which lies north of a high/ridge that will hang out over the southern/southeastern CONUS. This along with surface troughs/weak lows, afternoon heating/instability, and low level moisture will bring at least slight chances of precipitation through the middle of next week. Low confidence on severe threat this far out due to lack of strong winds aloft or any strong lows at the surface forecasted at this time. The Climate Prediction Center indicates this possible unsettled/wet period with a 45-50% chance of above average precipitation between July 21-25 over the CWA. Temps will continue to rebound after the cooler period with highs overall ranging in the 70s and 80s Friday through the weekend (maybe upper 80s to around 90 over south central SD Friday). Highs return to around average Monday through the middle of next week ranging in the 80s and 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The main exception will be initially with light rain over MBG, with ceilings dropping to MVFR at least temporarily through 21Z. Lingering MVFR ceilings remain at ATY with VFR ceilings slowly returning by around 22Z. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...06 SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...06