Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 290553 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1253 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Mid-level shortwave riding the leading edge of jet level
westerlies still providing enough synoptic-scale uvm to aide
afternoon heating-induced /~500-750j/kg mlcape/ showers and
thunderstorms across central/north central South Dakota. Latest
short-range HRRR cam solution output suggests this activity should
continue for a few more hours before dissipating. Minor
adjustments have been made to wx/pops/qpf grids as such. Also
added in some fog mention mainly across the James River valley
east toward the Red River valley, given how much precipitation has
fallen across much of eastern South Dakota over the past 24 to 36
hours. Overnight lows are still on track. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

see below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Surface low continues to spin over southeastern South
Dakota/northwestern Iowa...with clouds and precipitation wrapping
around it over portions of the CWA. Storms that developed earlier
along a wind shift axis produced a brief landspout near the Bowdle
area. Things have quieted down since then...but parts of the
southern CWA may still be primed into the late afternoon and early
evening for additional funnel clouds. This activity will gradually
come to an end tonight as the low pressure system tracks northeast
and away from the region. High pressure will settle in on
Sunday...with a mostly dry and warmer day expected.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to
the mid 50s east. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The main focus of forecast package is the strong upper level wave
that will affect the region Monday and Tuesday. While there is some
model difference on timing and strength of the wave, the general
consensus is the area will be impacted by a chance of severe
thunderstorm Monday afternoon west and shifting east into the
evening. The models area also indicating elevated capes great than
3000 j/kg. a class pattern for a severe weather event.

There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday,
but cooler temps look like a good bet, with perhaps some wrap around
instability showers/thunderstorms possible as the upper low tracks
across North Dakota.

The upper ridge looks to being to rebound over the western CONUS
through the period next weekend bringing a warmup to the temps with
a minimal chances of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Will continue to mention some light fog in the tafs at KABR and KATY
heading into daylight hours this morning. Otherwise, vfr is
expected through the taf valid period.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...TDK


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