Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 150942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
342 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 341 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

An area of high pressure currently over the tri-state region of ND,
SD, and MN has produced light and variable winds. With the light
winds and mostly clear skies, temps this morning should still fall
into the upper teens and low 20s. A backdoor cold, currently along
the Missouri River, will push east of the region as low level winds
become southwesterly. The winds will draw warmer air into the region
with high temperatures reaching the 40s and 50s for most locations.
Warmer temps will continue filter into the region on Thursday with
highs climbing into the 50s and 60s. Thursday is when an upper level
ridge is located over the region with 850, 700, 500 mb temps at or
above the 99th percentile. According to the NAEFS return interval,
some of the 700 and 500 mb temps are outside the climate forecast
system reanalysis. Based on some models, like the GFS, 700 mb temps
by 0Z Friday could exceed their all-time high in February for KABR
soundings. Some models still indicate top ten 850 mb temps as well
by 0Z Friday. With a dwindling snowpack, highs could be warmer on
Thursday. A shortwave crossing the region on Friday will push the
upper level ridge eastward. This trough, along with a surface low,
will mixed down the warm temps aloft with highs likely climbing into
the upper 40s to the low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

When the period opens, there is upper level longwave troffing over
the west coast and upper level longwave ridging over the eastern two-
thirds of the CONUS. The pattern becomes rather active with low
pressure systems aggressively propagating through this over-arching
longwave trof west/ridge east theme. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF deterministic
solutions have trended markedly drier with the Monday precipitation
chances. The Canadian model output still maintains a stronger, upper
level closed-low system lifting north through the region late Sunday
night through Monday night. Low level thermal progs continue to
showcase the potential for much above normal temperatures throughout
the extended forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Wednesday.




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