Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270849
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
349 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CAMS SUGGEST MCS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS AM WILL
CONTINUE EAST WHILE WEAKENING. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN POPS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT...INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SHIFT MOST PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND TONIGHT...WITH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
CWA. LACKING MUCH OF AN ADVECTION PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD END
UP A TAD ABOVE CLIMO FOR FRIDAY...WITH MUCH HOTTER READINGS
SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE MODELS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH THE LONG WAVE EVOLUTION OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE/EXPAND TO THE EAST
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS WITH IT A RELATIVELY
WARM AIRMASS WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND OR GREATER THAN +10C THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THIS MAY WELL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD
DESPITE SOME LL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.  FOR NOW WILL PRETTY MUCH
LET MODEL BLEND RIDE.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL BRING MAINLY SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS TO ALL
LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY EVENING. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO MVFR AT PIR AND MBG DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK


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