Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 242337 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
637 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The main challenge in the short range will be temps and fog chances.
For tonight, expect more fog to form given little to no dry air
advection and fairly light winds. Clouds should continue to thin
out/dissipate over the east this evening, but may not completely
fall apart.

Could be a repeat of fog Saturday night, but approaching system from
the west may put the kibosh on that as mid/high clouds stream out
east a head of the system. Speaking of that system, from a PV
anomaly/energy perspective, it doesn`t appear to be all that
strong. Pcpn associated with that energy may not make it east of
the Missouri River valley Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures
overall will favor near or even a bit above normal given the lack
of any cold air feed over the forecast area through the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

An active weather pattern is expected across the conus through the
long term portion of the forecast. While there is a general
agreement among models with the evolution of the upper level flow
pattern, they differ in timing and intensity of individual waves.
PCPN chances over the Northern Plains will likely depend on the
connection to the more active southern jet. The first system to
cross the region on Sunday night is a bit disconnect to the southern
jet. Thus, this system may pass through the region mostly dry.
Another system on Wednesday/Wednesday night lacks LLM as well
with a mostly dry passage possible. A third storm system looks
possible at the end of the period. Overall, forecast confidence in
the long term is low with regards to pcpn chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The majority of the CWA will see VFR conditions prevail tonight
through the day Saturday. The exception will be across parts of
the far eastern CWA, where MVFR cigs and vsbys due to fog are
possible late tonight into Saturday morning.




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