Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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306
FXUS63 KABR 250524 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1224 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Forecast on track, no major changes needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Shower activity rapidly diminishing. With high pressure overhead
once we clear out the high clouds with this low humidity
temperatures should be fairly comfortable. Return flow sets up for
Monday with a corridor of higher 850mb dewpoints coming up and
around from the west. We develop a 30-40kt low level jet overnight
into early Tuesday, with between 500 and 1500 j/kg MUCAPE. With
mid level warm advection anticipate elevated convection Tuesday
AM. With weak zonal flow overtop the persistent Southern Rockies
ridge, expect the forecast area will remain conditionally unstable
Tuesday and Wednesday with a pair of weak waves that travel
overhead. 850mb dewpoints increase upwards of +14C, so anticipate
surface dewpoints back into the 60s/low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

The models show an upper level high pressure area over the southwest
U.S. with a low pressure area over southeast Canada to the begin the
period. Ridging will extend north from the southwest high pressure
area into western Canada. Through the week and into the weekend, the
western ridge will push east and into the central U.S. while upper
level troughing drops into the Pacific Northwest. As a result of
this pattern, cooler than normal northeast surface flow will be
across our region until late in the period. Saturday and Sunday are
expected to warm up as south winds return with above normal
temperatures by Sunday. With this flow pattern, short waves will
traverse the region through most of the period bringing chances of
showers and storms to the entire cwa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Monday.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Wise



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