Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 230856
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
356 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

RAINFALL PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AS WELL. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVIDENT ACROSS NEBRASKA
WITH AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK...TAKING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY AND UP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY
THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHIFTING NOTED IN QPF AMOUNTS A
BIT FURTHER WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE STILL PICKING UP ON SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. VERY COMPLEX
FORECAST SHAPING UP TODAY AND TONIGHT CONCERNING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE STILL
VERY IMPRESSIVE IN REGARDS TO SHEAR...BOTH DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY. BUT...AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED FOR A
COUPLE DAYS NOW...IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE OR THINNING IN THE CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE EXTRA HEAT AND INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
IT STORMS CAN IGNITE LATER TODAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT.
GIVEN THE VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
AREAS NOT IN THE FLOOD WATCH...BASICALLY FROM ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

CONCERNING POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS.
CUT BACK ON SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHER WEST ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING WRAP AROUND PRECIP MORE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS
ALSO SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...SO HAVE CONFINED POPS TO JUST THE SOUTHWEST CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE OUT PERIODS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. STILL APPEARS TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL TO START THINGS OFF
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOWCASING
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS RESPECTIVELY...EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED.
LOW LEVEL WAA LOOKS TO KICK BACK INTO HIGH GEAR...THOUGH...BY
THURSDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF
BREAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE PRECIP PROBABILITIES PICK
UP AGAIN FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION DAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT. ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL COME LOWER CIGS/VSBY DUE TO FOG AND RAIN. THE IFR CIGS/VSBY MAY
HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND THEN BURN OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KABR/KATY. KMBG/KPIR MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
IFR/MVFR CIGS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT OR NEAR KABR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-
     HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.