Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 210522 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1122 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 817 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Forecast is on track this evening. Fog forming/moving and still
plenty of low clouds hanging around. No changes planned at this
time.

UPDATE Issued at 556 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

The region remains under a somewhat neutral and stagnant pattern,
with southerly flow keeping temperatures hovering on either side of
freezing across much of the area. This is resulting in continued
snow melt. With this moisture being basically trapped in the low
levels, expect to see fog form across much of the area once again
tonight and linger into Saturday morning. A weak system will swing
northward from the central plains across the far eastern Dakotas and
Minnesota tonight and Saturday, bringing chances for light
precipitation to those areas. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, as
temperatures will begin to cool some late tonight before rising
slightly again on Saturday. Due to the shallow nature of the cloud
deck, will stick with mainly some drizzle/freezing drizzle across
the eastern CWA tonight through the day Saturday, with the potential
for a switch over to light snow Saturday night as cooler air moves
in. May see some linger light snow showers Sunday before high
pressure moves in a brings a return to dry conditions Sunday night.

Daytime high temperatures over the weekend will generally be in the
30s. Overnight lows will range from the upper teens west to the
lower 30s east tonight and Saturday night, then will cool to range
from the lower teens west to the upper 20s east Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Highs will remain in the upper 20s to mid 30s, except for Thursday
when low to mid 20s will be common. The main story weather wise will
be the chance of accumulating snow Monday night over mainly western
and north central SD, that will expand across the entire region
through Tuesday night, before exiting northwest to southeast during
the day Wednesday. The more southern trend of the ECMWF and Canadian
will, especially after looking at the GEFS plumes which indicate
that the 12Z as well as the 06Z runs of the operational GFS have
been on the high end of the spectrum. Will continue to run with an
average 2-4in of snow with this event, and not jump on the 4-8in
that has shown up on the GFS BUFKIT profiles. Look for the potential
for significant changes for early next week. The Canadian model
remains the more southern solution with the sfc low.

The sfc low shifts across KS and into southern IA Monday night into
Tuesday, with snow starting to overspread the area. Looks like the
bulk of the snow will be on the backside of the sfc low as it swings
over northeastern KS far southwestern IA Tuesday afternoon as
northerly winds increase with 850mb wind of 30-35kts, and 850mb
temps fall -5 to -10C. Did increase winds slightly for Wednesday
given the tighter pressure gradient between the high exiting across
southern WI and northern lower MI, and a large area of high
pressure set up across much of the western states. Our area will
remain between this area of high pressure to our west, and a series
of low pressure systems to our east. As a result, while much of
Wednesday afternoon will be dry, the eastern zones may stay in
slight chance snow area into Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Right now, all four terminals are either LIFR or VLIFR in low
clouds or moderate to dense fog, or both. Guidance trends fog/low
clouds dissipating at KPIR/KMBG during the day on Saturday. KABR
is also expected to improve. KATY will probably remain in some
form of IFR flying weather over the next 24 hours. There is also
some light rain slowly moving north toward the KATY terminal at
this time. Will continue to monitor the potential for this light
precipitation to reach the KATY terminal heading into daytime
hours on Saturday when the next area of weak low pressure moves
through the region.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for SDZ007-008-011-
     020>023.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Dorn



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