Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271750 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1250 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 1249 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1140 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

Fog has more or less dissipated however pockets of stratus stuck
under a warming inversion may persist across the area for a good
portion of the afternoon. Southeast flow seems to be favoring some
upslope enhancement along the western portions of the James valley
and over towards the coteau. Some of this will mix out however as
the rest of the area is seeing clear skies. No major adjustments
to highs/lows.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

Upper level ridging is building into the region this morning. This
ridge, along with a surface low pressure system west of the region
will bring much warmer temperatures into the CWA. That said, high
clouds will limit our potential warming today, especially in the NE
portion of the CWA. The surface low will track across southern
Canada later tonight with gusty down-slope winds possible on the lee
side of the Sisseton Hills. While CAA will filter into the region
behind the surface low on Friday, decent mixing should keep temps
mild for this time of year.

Attention turns to a storm system off the west coast. This storm
will cross the Rockies Friday night and into South Dakota by
Saturday morning. This system will have decent moisture associated
with it as mean specific humidity at 700/500 mb are between 2 to 3
standard deviations above normal. However, a dry Canada high
pressure should limit precipitation potential. The 0Z model run
guidance generally suggest a light pcpn event.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

Mid level ridging will build over the region Saturday night and
Sunday before the flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. The wave will slide across the area on
Monday, then zonal flow will dominate until very late in the period,
when a shift to southwesterly flow sets up once again.

Fairly strong surface high pressure will be over the Northern Plains
when the period begins. The high gets pushed east on Sunday, with
the region then becoming situated between the exiting high and low
pressure to the west through early Monday. A low pressure system is
then set to track across the region, with the ECMWF being six to
eight hours faster with the timing of the system. Best chances for
precipitation will be across the northern part of the CWA, and due
to the timing differences, will keep small pops going Sunday night
through Monday evening. The remainder of the period looks to be dry
with no major upper level support or surface systems affecting the

Above normal temperatures will be rule through the extended period.
Monday will be the warmest day of the period with highs mainly in
the 60s. Otherwise, 50s to lower 60s will be common. Overnight lows
will be in the 30s, with the exception of Monday night when
temperatures will only fall into the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

Low ceilings and fog at ATY will dissipate into the mid afternoon
with all locations VFR through the rest of the period.




LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Mohr is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.