Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 042021
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOURTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS ALONG
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND CAPTURES
THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...HOWEVER STORMS MAY NEAR THE VICINITY OF KPIR LATE IN THE
NIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR


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