Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 030314 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
914 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

No major changes. Fog has already formed over generally cloud free
area around and west of the Missouri River. There has been some
progression of the back cloud edge from west to east but suspect
with nightfall and pressure falls out west that the clearing will
stop, and may in fact advect back west overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

The low clouds are looking like they will finally be making their
way out of the region into Saturday and Saturday night as surface
high pressure builds east. WAA/short wave trough mid level clouds
shown on satellite will be making their way east tonight. Thus, may
have to extend the scattered flurries into the evening. Bufkit
soundings also show that fog may form across our western CWA later
tonight and remain into Saturday morning. Thus, put in areas of fog.
The clouds may hold in longer across the east on Saturday along with
chances of light rain/light snow coming in the far east later in the
day as a short wave trough moves through. Skies should be become
partly cloudy on Saturday out west with south to southwest winds.
The snow cover across central and north central SD will still have
an effect on high temperatures. Highs should be mostly in the 30s.

The models continue to show a surface low pressure area moving
across the northern part of the region with a Pacific front moving
across our CWA Saturday night. This will bring winds around to the
west allowing for temperatures to only fall off slightly in the
evening and then remain steady or rise through the night as mid
level clouds will be spreading over. Sunday should be a mostly sunny
and dry day as as surface high pressure ridge slides through with
winds turning south. The temperatures should be warmer with the snow
cover out west still having an effect. Think we will have some lower
40s on Sunday. Sunday night will have clouds increase with the
approach of the next system.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

The period begins with an area of low pressure and upper level
trough crossing the region. While temps will be above freezing ahead
of this system, most of the pcpn should fall in the cold section as
snow. The latest models are suggesting an inch to three inches could
be possible along the ND/SD border by Tuesday morning. Winds will be
gusty with the snow which could cause patchy to areas of blowing
snow. Since this system is still a few days out, will hold off on
adding blowing snow into the forecast.

Much colder temperatures will move into the region behind this
system with highs only in the single digits and teens expected
through the rest of the period. While not in the forecast, there is
a potential of below zero Wednesday night and Thursday night. CAA
with a weak upper shortwave could bring light snow to the eastern
CWA on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

A mostly mvfr cigs situation is expected across KATY/KABR through
Saturday. Further west a mix of mvfr/vfr cigs are expected at
KMBG/KPIR. Some fog may also occur at those locations late
tonight.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK



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