Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
337 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A cold front, currently running east/west over central North Dakota,
will continue sinking southward this afternoon and through tonight.
A few light showers will be possible along the front, mainly in
North Dakota this evening. Depending on which model used, this front
could slide as far south as Huron by Sunday morning. If this occurs,
it may be difficult for the front to push back north of this CWA as
a warm Sunday afternoon. While there is good agreement among
models with the placement of the warm front Sunday afternoon, a
slight difference of 40 miles will yield a drastic changes in
temperatures. Highs south of the front will likely reach the 60s
and 70s. North of the front, highs may only reach the lower 50s at
best. Locations along Highway 12 should be the battle ground for
the contrasting airmasses. Forecaster confidence is low with
regards to the placement of the front its` affect on temperatures.
Model guidance in Aberdeen is a prime example. The NAM has 56
degrees while GFS and others show upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

An area of surface low pressure will move through the region Sunday
night through Monday night. This feature will bring the first round
of showers for the week. The overall pattern will remain unsettled
as an upper trough digs into most of the central U.S. The trough
will deepen further by Friday. Tuesday through Saturday will have
periodic bouts of showers from the shortwaves traveling within the
upper trough. The trough will also let cooler air dive into the
Dakotas. Highs will only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s through the
end of the week. Cooler lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s will also
cause some of the overnight showers to fall as light snow or a mix
of rain and snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through
the valid taf period. That said, a cold front sagging southward
could bring MVFR cigs into the terminals of KMBG and KABR around




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