Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 171920
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STREAM SOUTHWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY. THIS MEANS
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WITH BREAKS IN CIGS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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