000
FXUS63 KABR 012330
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. MAY SEE A MIX OR SWITCH OVER THE SNOW BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES DROP. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRECIPITATION
MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW DROPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF IT REACHES THE CWA. THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...WHICH THEN MAKES THE PRECIPITATION LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
UNCERTAIN. THE NAM IS BY FAR THE DRIEST SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF
JUST A BIT WETTER THAN THE GFS. WITH NOT REALLY BEING ABLE TO RULE
OUT ANY ONE LOCATION BEING DRY FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT ON...HAVE
STUCK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH TO CHC/LKLY POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM JUST
UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH TO JUST UNDER 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO FEATURE FAIRLY STRONG
WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH NUMEROUS FACTORS OF THE
EVENT...BUT WILL KEEP AN SPS IN EFFECT.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH WAA IN PLACE.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WILL
THEN SEE THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS
TO POUR IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW IS EAST OF THE REGION BUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
STILL HANGS BACK TO THE WEST WITH MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
REMAINING OVER THE AREA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
ACROSS THE AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE MAIN STORY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES INVADING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY 12Z FRIDAY...925MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND
-25C OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL SPELL OUT VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SNOW FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES
MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES MORE. THIS COLD AIR WILL
STICK AROUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME AS MODELS SHOW NO SIGNS OF THE
COLD SNAP BREAKING UNTIL PERHAPS NEXT WEEKEND OR EVEN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BAND OF -RA WILL SLOWLY EXIT NE SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE ND/SD BORDER AND MAY BRING -RA/FZRA AND -SN TO KMBG/KABR.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN