


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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389 FXUS63 KABR 280654 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 154 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/storms (30-60% coverage) early this morning with a low risk of severe weather. - SLIGHT RISK (2 of 5) again for this afternoon, east of a line from Pierre to Aberdeen. Wind and hail are the primary threats, though can`t rule out a brief tornado in far eastern SD/western MN. - Another cluster of storms (40-60% coverage) coming up from the southwest early Sunday morning for central South Dakota before spreading east through the morning. Low risk of severe weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Cluster of storms in North Dakota threatens the northern CWA if any of the stronger storms decides to deviate to the right on a 320-340 degree trajectory. Otherwise we just have some weak convection smattered across the CWA mainly east river. All this is covered by current POPs. There is the question of whether this will get more organized overnight and lay down enough outflow to influence the final location for a surface trough ahead of a low across eastern South Dakota as a location for re-development later today. The responsible shortwave is taking its time moving east, so CAMS have highlighted this area for another round of potential severe weather. Additionally, another wave, back into Wyoming will make it into western South Dakota this evening. Strongest activity would be out towards the hills region, however as the wave continues east northeast elevated convection could be coming into the Missouri valley towards the morning hours Sunday. So, for this afternoon, profiles indicate decent mid-level flow of 40kts, though jet level winds are pretty weak with the 200mb jet over North Dakota. 1/2km winds are about 25kts down in the southeast CWA before they decouple as a low level jet forms southeast of the CWA. CAPE is once again up to between 3500-4000j/kg but with only 30kts 0-6 km shear. Thats enough shear for supercell characteristics, but with westerly mid-levels outflows will also impact storm mode. And the frontal boundary shifts storms out of the CWA before the low level jet influences storm mode. There is the shortwave out west that CAMS have latched onto. Better shear environment remains to the north, with steeper mid-level lapse rates up that way, while down into central South Dakota its a weaker shear/weaker MUCAPE environment. Will probably just end up with early morning pulse convection in central SD. An upper level trough sets overhead for Sunday, with weak high pressure. We get clipped by a backdoor front Monday with a brief cool down. A broad weak ridge builds in from the west for the middle of next week, with a series of weak ridge riders keeping POPs in the forecast mainly for the latter half of next week. No major thermal anomalies though 700mb temperatures are creeping up towards +14 by Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Storms in south central North Dakota may migrate south-southeast and clip the KABR terminal, while we have showers moving towards the KATY terminal. Another round of storms is possible for the KATY terminal again Saturday afternoon. A low level jet overhead will also be responsible for LLWS this morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...07