000
FXUS63 KABR 250539 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AREA OF CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WAS ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA AS OF 20Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO RIDE
OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
FROM MID EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONE HINDERING FACTOR WILL
BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE
TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 5OS TO LOWER 60S.







.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH BEGINS BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY
AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
BEARABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
COUPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST BEHIND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER DIFFICULT CONVECTIVE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS WITH STORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR...ATY AND MBG.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN