Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 220525 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1125 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 912 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

No major changes made to the forecast this evening. Temperatures
have plummeted pretty quickly across the area, but approaching
cloud cover from the west, along with winds shifting to more of a
southerly direction, albeit light, should allow for slight warming
during the late overnight hours.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

1030mb high pressure over Montana will continue to slowly slink into
the CWA through the evening. This will set us up for ideal
radiational conditions this evening and into the early overnight
hours. We will see some return flow towards morning, and there are
some wispy high clouds noted upstream but with temperatures in the
mid 20s and dewpoints in the single digits we should have no
problem radiating into the low teens and single digits (the only
true inhibiting factor is the lack of snow cover).

A weak wave, and a nose of mid level warm advection, still appears
in BUFKIT soundings for Wednesday. Still, only around 5 microbars of
lift and intermittent saturation within the dendritic growth zone.
There is also a dry subcloud layer to overcome with any falling
precipitation. Should be little more than a band of mid level clouds
and flurries changing to sprinkles. Did expand low POP coverage a
little but there should be no hazardous impacts with this feature.

As for temperatures, that warm advection push comes with increasing
sunshine west of the James by the early afternoon. Mixed
temperatures from the James yield highs in the upper 40s/low 50s but
readings to the west are closer to mid 60s. The northeast has the
benefit of a lack of sunshine and being the location where the
coldest air lingers the longest, and highs will suffer.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A mean mid level pattern featuring a west conus ridge/east conus
trof will continue through the long term. Energy coming off the
Pacific does occasionally knock down the ridge, but it has been re-
bounding quickly after the passage of those waves.  The main wave to
affect the Northern Plains over the 2 to 7 day forecast will come
through on Friday. PV anomaly charts indicate a decent looking wave
as does H5 vorticity. Moisture profiles aren`t particularly great,
but likely enough mid level moisture to support some light pcpn.
Temperature profiles indicate a mostly rain event.

The remainder of the long term looks dry until perhaps early the
next work week. Temperatures, overall, will favor above to much
above normal through most of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Wednesday.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.