000
FXUS63 KABR 032122
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STILL SEEING SOME HEFTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. WEBCAMS INDICATE
QUITE A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW STILL GOING ON...AND EXPECT THERE ARE
STILL SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES OCCURRING IN OPEN AREAS. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 00Z
ACROSS THE EAST WHEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BRING
COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SUBZERO
LOWS. WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WILL SEE
WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 06Z. WITH
THE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY COLD NIGHT OF SUBZERO
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN AND WAA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THERE IS A
RATHER POTENT WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY BUT MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TIMING
AND EXTENT. THEREFORE JUST STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA FOR NOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENS AND A POTENTIAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD AT THE START OF
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES COULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE 60S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 21Z-00Z
WHEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH. THESE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW NEAR KABR/KATY REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR
THROUGH 21Z. A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS MAY AFFECT KPIR OR KMBG
BRIEFLY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO EXTENT AND TIMING OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ONCE KATY CLEARS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 11 AM
     CST /10 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003>011-015>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ006>008-
     011-018>023.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ039-046.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE