Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201145 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
545 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD WITH STRATUS TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS...MAINLY ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT THE STRATUS NORTHEAST. WITH POOR MIXING
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHEAST DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.

WHILE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE LESS EFFICIENT THANKS TO THICK
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROF...WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE IN FULL GEAR FOR FRIDAY...WITH H925 TEMPERATURES OF +1 TO
+3C. A SECOND SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY...WITH H925
TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO +1 TO +5C.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FAIRLY ACTIVE LONG TERM IN THE OFFING. DURING THE PERIOD ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTH AND FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL US. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...BUT FOR NOW THE
MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE THE
AREAS GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN AND MAINLY SNOW AT THAT
TIME SINCE COLD AIR WILL BE DIVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...THE ADDITION OF
STRONG WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THEN DROP BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MVFR
STRATUS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE SFC HIGH RIDGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...COVERING KPIR/KMBG. THE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS
PARTICULARLY WELL AND ITS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR SURE WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH THE DECK AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT
MAYBE A LITTLE BETTER MIXING AND THUS A BREAKUP THIS AFTN AND FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH THAT SCENARIO. KABR/KATY ON THE OTHER HAND MAY
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THIS DECK BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








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