000
FXUS63 KABR 270546 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM YET TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF MELTING/EVAPORATION AND THE WET SOILS WE
HAVE FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST...EXPECT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD GET SOME FOG TONIGHT. H925 WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY EARLY...BECOMING CWA WIDE BY
LATE MORNING. STABLE FLOW WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT
ANY FOG...WHICH IS THE CAVEAT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. WARM AIR REMAINS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIGHT SEE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS A SURFACE TROF SITS OVER THE CWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE EFFICIENT MIXING SO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DESPITE READINGS FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES
SUPPORT EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A
STRATUS LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING BUT
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS CONCERNING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING A BIT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING IS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EC
AND GEM SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME WITH
PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. 12Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING PRECIP INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL RH...STILL EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM YET TONIGHT AND REMAIN
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME IFR STRATUS CEILINGS AT ABR AND ATY. EXPECT
MOST OF TUESDAY TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN