Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240544 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1144 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 925MB AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN
EFFICIENT MIXING WHICH HAS LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...SO WILL ADVERTISE LOWS A FEW DEGREES OFF CURRENT
READINGS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE HEADED SOUTHEAST...SCATTERED LIGHT
RETURNS IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA COULD ENTER EXTREME
NORTHEAST CWA SO ADDED FLURRIES MENTION. AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
BACKS INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARDS MORNING...MAY ALSO
SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN ABOUT 30 J/KG CAPE...REINTRODUCED MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE SISSETON HILLS REGION. HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS JUST
STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS...SO INCREASED POPS.

THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A HEALTHY SPREAD BETWEEN THE AREA OF GREATEST
INTENSITY...WITH THE BULLSEYE LIKELY BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND
JAMES VALLEYS. KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR GENERAL 1 TO 3
INCHES. PROFILES REMAIN SATURATED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GOOD MIXING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -20C TO -25C...LOWS WILL ONLY BE DOWN
TO AROUND -5 TO -15F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED. PERIOD
STARTS OFF WITH COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. WITH 925 MB
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF -20 C...ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY AREAS ON THURSDAY. THEN...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SHOULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. MODELS DO
NOT OFFER MUCH HOPE FOR ANY WARM UPS IN THE EXTENDED AS 925/850 MB
TEMPS STAY COLD THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. AS FOR PRECIPITATION IT
APPEARS IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A STRONG
SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT AT
THIS POINT MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM STAYING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SUPERBLEND POPS ONLY GAVE SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA AND THIS SEEMS OK FOR NOW GIVEN THE CHANCES
THAT THE STORM SYSTEM COULD TREND NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS MOVING DOWN FROM
ND THIS EVENING. THE WESTERN EDGE IS VERY RAGGEDY SO THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING FOR KMBG AND KPIR. MODELS INDICATE
THIS WILL ALL FILL IN BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE









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