Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 210216 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
916 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD GET A
LITTLE FROSTY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

RATHER QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERALL AIR
MASS STAYS FAIRLY MILD ALOFT AND WINDS WILL ACTUALLY GO WESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH. IF FACT...WILL BE BORDERLINE FROST CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT CURRENT MIN T GRID SHOWS ABOUT 36/37 DEGREES
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. INSERTED PATCHY FROST FOR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA AND WILL BE UP AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY IN UNR CWA SO
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF EXPANSION
INTO OUR CWA IS NEEDED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AIR MASS WARMS A BIT AT 925/850 MB SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. BUMPED UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS ALOFT...AND SEEING HOW TEMPS
TODAY MANAGED TO CLIMB.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THAT FIRST
SHOWS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LEFT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 12Z EC AND IT SHOWS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WHICH IS TYPICAL AND USUALLY A TRUSTWORTHY OUTCOME MOST OF THE
TIME. EC SHOWS THINGS STAYING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL THE CWA. IF
OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS...THEN POPS CAN ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REMOVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT TOTALLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE FIRST MAIN SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION. THE EC WAS THE SLOWEST AT BRINGING IN THE FIRST
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EC DOES NOT BRING MUCH OF
ANY RAINFALL IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE
QUICKER AND BRING SOMETHING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
DIFFERENT MOVEMENT AND RESULTANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH GOOD POPS INTO MONDAY. MAY HAVE ONLY A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK



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