Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 271511 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

No major changes planned to the current forecast. Warming is a
little slower today without the significant mixing. Expect temps
to jump this afternoon as winds increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

The short term portion of the forecast will feature dry conditions
with near to above normal temperatures. An upper level trough
currently over the Northern Great Lakes will sink southward today
bringing breezy northwesterly winds to the eastern CWA. Under sunny
skies, high temperatures should warm into the upper 60s in NE South
Dakota, to the lower 80s in western SD. The upper level trough
should be located over southeastern Lake Michigan later tonight with
low stratus possible as far west as eastern SD. The stratus will
certainly limit the potential for frost tonight.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler than previously
expected. A back-door cold front will push across the region as
Canadian high pressure builds in from the north. With 925 mb temps
around normal for this time of year, have lowered high temperatures
a few degrees for most of the CWA. The surface high will slide into
northern Minnesota tonight with southerly winds developing over the
Dakotas. The southerly winds will bring warmer temps back into the
region for Thursday with highs in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

No noteworthy changes in tonight`s 00Z GSM solutions. Still looks
dry under high pressure influence as the period opens. Then by early
next week, the precipitation chances start to ramp up as shortwave
energy within a western CONUS longwave trof aims for the northern
plains. Longer range low level thermal progs also indicate some
potential for seeing growing season ending cold air moving down
across the northern plains by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

At KMBG and KPIR, VFR conditions should prevail over the next 24
hours. However, at KABR and KATY, short range model guidance is
drawing the stratus clouds currently over northeastern MN down into
northeastern SoDak after 00z Wednesday, impacting KATY with sub-vfr
cloudiness by 06Z Wednesday and potentially KABR by 12Z Wednesday.
Continuing to monitor satellite and short-range model trends.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn


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