Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 290008 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
708 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. EC/GFS 12Z RUNS ARE
INDICATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA. WITH NO FORCING AND NO
LLJ OVER THIS CWA THOUGH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE HI-RES CAMS WHICH
KEEP ALL PRECIP NORTH AND EAST.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS
RIDGE. WITH GOOD MIXING AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SFC
TROUGH...SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON SUNDAY AS WELL
WITH MIN RH FALLING TO AROUND 20. WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL CAP SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE +20S
CELSIUS THROUGHOUT...WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND 90S.
MODELS DO SHOW A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY...BUT VARY A BIT ON
STRENGTH. EC SHOWS THE TROUGH BASICALLY WASHING OUT AND BECOMING NON
EXISTENT BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN SD WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT
ALL THE WAY EAST INTO MN. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH
THE SFC TROUGH WHEREAS THE EC IS DRY. CURRENT SUPERBLEND POPS GAVE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE CAPPING
INVERSION ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK TO HEAT UP AND DRY
OUT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM LATER TONIGHT AT ABR AND ATY
AND MAYBE AT PIR AND MBG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR


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