Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 230907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
407 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The cold front that brought a few light showers, and brief gusty
winds, has shifted east of the area. While there could still be an
isolated shower near the SD/MN border around 18Z, the rest of this
period will be rain free.

North to northwesterly flow will be the rule aloft as the 500mb low
spins across the Great Lakes through the first half of the work week.

The main story will be the windy conditions and elevated fire
concerns today. Behind the exiting cold front, and as mixing
increases, windy conditions will develop this morning, and continue
through the afternoon hours, before diminishing around sunset. Peak
gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory has been posted
for the entire forecast area. Grassland fire danger index will rise
into the high to very high categories over the eastern two-thirds of
the forecast area today as RH values fall to 25 to 40 percent. The
lowest humidity is expected west of the Missouri River. We will be
stuck between exiting/deepening low pressure setting up over the
Great Lakes, and strong high pressure over the Pacific Northwest.

Will need to monitor wind in Stanley/Jones/Hughes Counties, as they
will likely see the best chance of nearing High Wind Warning levels
between 17 and 21Z.

While winds should diminish this evening, they will still remain
breezy, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph tonight. The strongest winds are
expected over and east of the Sisseton Hills. Will need to
reevaluate the need for another Wind Advisory for this area after
06Z and continuing into Tuesday. Winds will finally diminish to less
than 15kts across the whole cwa Tuesday night, where they should
linger through much of Wednesday as the Great Lakes low exits into
eastern Canada.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

General trend in the extended for cooler temperatures remains.
However, models are backing off a bit on the coldest readings. The
extended will be a tale of a deep upper trough. The trough will plow
into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. A moderately strong
low at the sfc followed by an arctic high will squeeze a decent
pressure gradient over the Dakotas. As pressure falls quickly Wed
night, the winds will increase across the region. H85 temps will
fall to around -10C over northeast SD and west central MN by
Thursday night. Precip now looks like it will remain mostly north
and east. So, while areas east of I-29 may still see some snow,
little is expected to accumulate. Sfc high pressure will drop down
out of Canada over the weekend as the upper flow becomes north to
northwest. Highs will only be in the 40s through much of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through Monday at all terminals.
However, it will also be quite windy, especially late morning and
afternoon on Monday.


SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT
     /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-

MN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ039-046.



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