Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 181119 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
519 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

A deep upper level trough currently over Southern California will
produce ridging over the Nation`s midsection today with warm
temperatures continuing. High temperatures will warm into the 50s
for most locations. Of course snow covered areas will remain in
the 40s. Increasing southerly winds tonight will produce lows in
the 30s, or what should be our normal highs! Sunday will still be
the warmest day in the short term. This is when a surface low
pressure west of the region will bring gusty southerly winds which
will help mix down 925 mb temps of +9 to +12C by peak heating.
The ECMWF has been consistent with producing light pcpn with the
WAA on Sunday afternoon. With fairly dry lower levels will keep
Sunday dry for now.

The surface low pressure, along with an upper level long wave
trough will cross the region Sunday night through Monday. There
should be enough instability around for showers, along with
thunderstorms on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

An upper trough and sfc front will exit Monday night, taking the
rain with them. On Tuesday upper level ridging will move back over
the Plains drawing up some strong warm air advection on west to
southwest flow. Temps will rise into the 50s and 60s. This is
expected to be the warmest day of the extended period with a quick
downward trend back toward average by the end of the work week.

The main forecast challenge will be the potential for an end of the
week storm system. Sfc low pressure moves into the central Plains
Wed night/Thursday. Temps will be warm enough with this initial
surge to support rain or a rain/snow mix. When the upper trough
transitions in late Thursday and Friday, temps will fall and precip
will change to all snow. Details are still tough to pin down at this
time. The ECMWF and GFS continue to nudge the system a bit farther
south. Exact track will impact snow accumulations and wind
intensity. Will continue to keep a close eye on trends with this
system. Temperatures will remain cooler behind the upper trough with
highs only in the 20s to near 30.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 518 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period.




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