Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 041545 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE IS HAMPERING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALL
BUT KPIR ARE DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR. WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
HELP SCOUR OUT THE WORST OF THE SMOKE AND VSBY IS FORECAST TO RISE
TO VFR.

STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPIR. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THERE IS NO
MODEL CONSISTENCY AMONG THE HI-RES MODELS AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR FORMATION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS YET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



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