Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 151255 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
755 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE CWA
TODAY VIA SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S IN
THE EAST...TO THE 60S IN THE WEST. WHILE WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED IF ANY INCREASING LLM THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z. EVEN WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY 0Z WED...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO LITTLE PCPN IN THIS CWA UNTIL AFTER 6Z. PER THE 12Z
LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE 0Z HI-RES ARW...THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT
OCCUR BETWEEN 9-12Z AND ALONG HIGHWAY 212. IT SEEMS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE FOR ALL PCPN TONIGHT TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SE MINNESOTA
WITH PCPN WRAPPING INTO NE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH
LIMITED MIXING WINDS AND WITH SOME LEFT OVER LLM...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SEEMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A WARMING
TREND FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. A LARGE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RISING THICKNESSES OVER OUR REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALONG WITH SURFACE FRONTS BRINGING
A FEW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE MODELS NOW
INDICATE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...ADDED IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THIS
ONE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH MID 40S EAST AND MID 50S WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST WHILE A STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TODAY AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE LOW
LEVEL MIXING LAYER WILL INCREASE BRINGING STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT ALL LOCATIONS. VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY LOWERING INTO THE EVENING.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AFFECTING ALL LOCATIONS BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT ABR AND MBG BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS THE WARMER AIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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