Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 202017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
317 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Scattered high based light showers late this afternoon across
the north will be on their way out of the region into early evening.
Otherwise, the clouds will move out with the next weak upper short
wave moving towards the region from the west tonight. This will
spread more mid and high level clouds into the region along with
bringing in chances of showers/storms later tonight into Monday. The
models only show weak instability which should limit any
thunder/lightning activity. The main thing through the short term
will be the cloud cover for the eclipse. The models show various
amounts of cloud cover on Monday. It does look like there will be
breaks/thinning of the clouds for several locations as mid and high
level clouds stream over. Otherwise, lows tonight will be in the 50s
with highs on Monday in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with light
winds. Although, there could be a cool down during the eclipse.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

The period begins with an amplifying long wave pattern across the
conus. Energy will dig toward the Great Lakes, with ridging
expanding across the Rockies. This should put the forecast area in a
mostly dry northwest flow regime, with a surface high diving pretty
far south into the Southern Plains, pushing all the high heat and
humidity down toward the Gulf of Mexico. However, southerly breezes
will return to the forecast area by late in the week as the ridge
out west breaks down due to advancing energy from the eastern
Pacific. This energy will bring some chc for rain by next weekend.
Temperatures, overall, will favor near to perhaps just a touch
below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Some p6sm light showers will affect MBG, ABR, and ATY at the station
or in the vicinity this afternoon as a short wave trough moves east.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Monday.




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