Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 211516 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1016 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

High pressure continues to slide east with winds gradually
returning from the southwest this morning. After a cool start with
lows in the 40s this morning, temperatures have rebounded back up
into the 60s across the region. This trend is right on track and
no changes were made to the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

High pressure is settling over the region this morning with clear
skies and light winds. Temperatures are falling through the 50s and
into the upper 40s for most locations, with a few hours of cooling
yet.

The aforementioned high will move east of the area today with south
to southwest winds and warmer temperatures moving in. Skies will be
mostly sunny and should be a very pleasant day with highs ranging
from the upper 70s to upper 80s. The heat will build into Monday as
southerly winds increase and broad upper level ridging builds over
the Dakotas. 850mb temps will continue to soar through the +20s C
into Monday night. Highs will rise into the 90s for most locations
on Monday with portions of central SD flirting with 100 degrees.
Will also have to watch fire weather on Monday as current forecast
RH values bottom out around 20 percent across fire zone 267. Will
also see some decent south to southwest winds so may need headlines
at some point. Will begin by beefing up wording in HWO and fire
weather products.

On Tuesday, a cold front will begin making its way across the CWA.
But, hot air will still be had out ahead of the front so still
expecting some very warm/hot temps on Tuesday with highs in the 80s
and 90. This front may also trigger a few showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon across the eastern CWA. Have inserted slight
chance POPs for the time being as better chances may actually hold
off until the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Will open the period with a surface trof moving across the eastern
CWA. Convection should be initializing or ongoing, with 700mb
temperatures east of the James valley down to between +9 to +11C. A
shortwave moving in from the south will mainly provide support to
the south of the CWA as the main upper low moves along the
ND/Canadian border. A 30kt low level jet will also develop, but
shifts east and the focus area quickly becomes western/central
Minnesota. Middle/end of the week temperatures will then end up
below average as we remain under the upper trof, with 850mb
temperatures bottoming out Thursday AM between +6 and +9C.

The next wave to affect the region moves in for the end of the work
week/weekend. Main forcing will be a favorable entrance region to a
60-80kt upper jet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

VFR conditions for all terminals. KPIR/KATY may experience some
low level wind shear as a low level jet sets up nearby overnight.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Connelly



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