Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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398
FXUS63 KABR 220609 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
109 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 912 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Sharp line from northwest to southeast over the CWA from overcast
skies west to clear skies east, with little movement in the last
several hours. Area of precipitation trying to come together
southwest of the CWA at this time. Current timing of precipitation
possibly reaching the CWA looks good for now. No changes made to
winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The daytime cumulus sinking across the region from eastern ND
continues to slowly dissipate this afternoon, with a thick
stratus deck still set up across much of the western half of SD.
This too will continue to diminish in areal coverage as the
afternoon continues.

The main story will be the exiting sfc ridge extending this
afternoon from Manitoba down through eastern SD/NE. This ridge will
be set up across MN by 06Z Wednesday, while a sizable 500mb ridge of
high pressure builds in from MT and sets up across the northern and
central plains by mid morning Wednesday.

Have cut back slightly on pops and mixed precip/icing potential for
overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Much of this is due to the
increased overnight temperatures and less moisture. Increased highs
Wednesday 2-4F, and in turn keeping temperatures at or below 32F to
prior to 18Z. Expecting snow amounts to stay under 1 inch overnight-
Wednesday morning. Most of the area of around 0.1 inches or less
QPF will likely stay southwest of a line from MBG to ABR.
Increased winds/wind gusts for Wednesday over the western half of
the forecast area, with a few gusts over 30kts from 14-20Z. These
stronger winds expand to the east during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Models still in a bit of disagreement in regards to precip chances
Wednesday night through Thursday as a frontal boundary tries to
become established across the region in response to deepening low
pressure over the CO region. Weak ripple aloft moves through within
the southwest flow aloft, which may be enough to trigger some
showers. The 12Z EC continues to be a bit more aggressive with QPF
compared to the other models. By far, the main precip event will be
Thursday night through Friday night as the main area of low pressure
ejects eastward into the plains. The surface low appears to be
taking a southern track, mainly into the KS/OK region. The 12Z EC
has taken a notably southern shift with its QPF, now bringing most
precip across south central into southeast SD. Did not make many
changes at all to inherited POP grids as it already highlights
highest precip chances along the southern fringes of the CWA and
especially into southeast SD. Main event looks to be mainly rain,
although if temps get cold enough during the late night and early
morning hours, there may be some snow mixed in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Wednesday. Scattered light snow showers are possible across
the far southern CWA overnight. Look for southeasterly winds to
increase into the 20 to 35 knot range Wednesday morning and continue
into the evening hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Dorn



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