Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270850
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST CENTERS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SIT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION TODAY...USHERING WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE CWA. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 90S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG...OR HIGHER IN SOME MODELS...ALONG
WITH A 40-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH THE RESULT BEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HINDERING FACTORS MAY BE A STRONG CAP...+13 TO +16
DEGREES...AND THE FACT THAT THE BEST SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE
WEST OF THE OTHER FEATURES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GO SEVERE...SO WILL STICK WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

STRONG MIXING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WINDY DAY ON
TUESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BRINGING DRY...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY...WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH ALL OF THE MODELS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW EVOLVING OVER THE REGION. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SOUTHERN CANADA LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SETTLING OVER THE HUDSON`S BAY AREA. THIS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE BAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WHILE A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST US
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT OUR
REGION IN PREVAILING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...THE LONG
TERM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING
THE KMBG SITE BUT SHOULD EXIT BY 8Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY ENTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT ON MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR



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