Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 262333 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Issued at 627 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

CAM solutions differ greatly and are inconsistent with current
ground truth which shows no showers over the CWA. Due to low
confidence in precip evolution tonight confined any pop
adjustments to the next few hours only. Removed most of the pops
for the next couple of hours as drier lower levels are causing any
showers to dissipate.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 308 PM CDT
THU MAY 26 2016

Forecast challenges revolve mainly around precipitation chances
tonight and Friday.

Currently, under a partly cloudy sky, temperatures are warming
through the 70s on variable winds. And, heating of the day showers
and weak thunderstorms /mlcape=250-500j/kg, effbulksh=<20kts/ are
noted developing on radar across portions of north central and
northwest South Dakota.

With loss of daytime heating, any shower or thunderstorm activity
persisting into early evening will dissipate, leaving much of the
tonight period dry. That being said, another area of low pressure
presently over the four corners region will lift north-northeast
toward this area by morning on Friday, bringing precipitation
chances with it for areas mainly east of the Missouri River valley.
Plenty of cloud cover Friday suggests limited heating/instability
will be around, and that should act to keep the lid on any severe
convective potential...despite the half-way decent deep layer shear
/30 to 40kts/ that is expected to be in place over the James River
valley region eastward Friday afternoon.

As far as temperatures go, expecting low temperatures tonight to dip
into the 40s and 50s while high temperatures Friday rebound mainly
into the 70s. These are all running right around, to perhaps a few
degrees above, climo normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 308 PM CDT
THU MAY 26 2016

The 500mb trough set up from the 4 corners region up through E
MT/W Dakotas will shift overhead by 00z Saturday. This feature
will slowly exit E of the CWA through the day Saturday. Will be
difficult to completely take out the mention of showers and
isolated thunderstorms, but have limited the TS mention to the
afternoon hours as the sfc low moves closer to our SE /still over
E NE/W IA/S MN. Ridging will push in Saturday night through early
Monday at the sfc and aloft. Precip is limited to mainly slight
chance or below through this time period.

A trough of low pressure will slowly build in from the W on Monday.
Out of this extended holiday weekend, Monday afternoon would be the
period with the best chance for a couple stronger storms to
develop as SW flow returns aloft. Temps will be flirting with the
80s for Sunday and Monday.

The next 500mb low over British Columbia this weekend will dive
across MT Tuesday morning and deepen across ND Tuesday
evening, keeping a trough over the Dakotas through at least
Thursday. Expect mainly chance pops Monday-Wednesday, and temps
cooling to near or even slightly below normal by midweek.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected through Friday morning. MVFR cigs may
advect north into the region Friday afternoon and affect KATY, and
possibly KABR. Showers may develop overnight, but showers and
thunderstorms have greater chances starting Friday afternoon.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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