Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 282057
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
257 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LITTLE OF WHATS ON RADAR IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND THANKS TO A
FETCH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP
LIGHT QPF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS...BUT WILL ALSO BE COUNTERED BY THE DRY AIR.
THUS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
POPS AND SNOW TOTALS.

WITH COLD ADVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEEING MIXED DOWN WINDS
IN THE TEENS...WITH H925 TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -20C.
WILL REMAIN MIXED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THUS...LOWS SHOULD
ONLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 BELOW...BUT ON THE FLIP SIDE HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL VALUES FOR MONDAY
MORNING MIGHT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THE BETTER BET IS
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SETTLES OVERHEAD. WE
NEVER REALLY DO DECOUPLE...BY LATE TUESDAY WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND WE BEGIN WARM ADVECTING. COULD BE STRONGER
WINDS FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREA OF THE COTEAU...THANKFULLY THERE IS A
LACK OF SNOW COVER FOR THAT PART OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW TAKES
HOLD. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT THE REGION
AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TRICKY. STUCK WITH THE
MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE PICTURE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.






&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AFFECTING MAINLY ABR...MBG AND
ATY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AGAIN AT ABR AND ATY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO MBG AND PIR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD FALL TO 1 TO 3 MILES WITH PIR
BEING THE LOWEST AND RECEIVING THE MOST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AT
PIR.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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