Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 140531 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A BIT
PROBLEMATIC AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
FROST CATEGORY. WILL FORGO THE MENTION OF FROST TONIGHT FOR TWO
REASONS. THE FIRST REASON IS WINDS. WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD
KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT WELL MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SECOND
REASON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD HANG TOGETHER AND FILTER INTO THIS
CWA LATER TONIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE HIGH OVER HEAD ON SUNDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EXITING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE START OF THE PERIOD DRY.
THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S TO 80S THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH
A SERIES OF SFC LOWS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
ARE DIVERGENT ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THEY EXPECT PRECIP WITH
THESE SYSTEMS SO KEPT ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THU
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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