Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 240103 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
803 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FOR NOW NOT PLANNING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BAND OF
WAA RAIN CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST CWA. BASED ON
MODEL DATA AND LATEST SOUNDINGS ITS FAIR TO SAY I AM NOT SURE HOW
FAST/FAR THAT BAND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST. MAY NOT GET MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN IN THE NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL MORE ENERGY
COMES OUT ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ADVANCEMENT OF
RAIN THIS EVENING AND THEN DETERMINE ANY CHANGES THAT MIGHT NEED
TO BE MADE CONCERNING POPS..ETC. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK MOSTLY ON
TARGET GIVEN OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND LLJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO ERODE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH TEMPS QUICKLY CLIMBING AS
THE SUN EMERGES. SNOWFALL FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE HISTORY FOR SOME
AREAS. ONCE AGAIN THE HRRR LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER PRODUCT PERFORMED
EXTREMELY WELL IN ERODING THE STRATUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE CWA. THAT SAID THOUGH...IT STILL APPEARS A
BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ITS A QUESTION OF
JUST HOW FILLED IN AND INTENSE THIS BAND WILL BE. BACKED OFF ON
QPF A BIT THOUGH AS MODELS ARE RATHER LIGHT WITH ITS QPF OUTPUT.
OVERALL FORCING IS MODEST. COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH MIXED
PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. MODELS ALL SHOWING A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRYING
CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY IN THE DRY
SLOT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP
HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES.

AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP. COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WRAP AROUND PRECIP
POTENTIAL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN
JUST HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIP WILL MAKE IT...WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. THE EC
DOES NOT TAKE IT MUCH SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER. GENERALLY WENT
WITH THE MORE RELIABLE EC AT THIS POINT. INTERESTING TO NOTE
THOUGH THAT THIS TIME AROUND THE GEM IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO A FLAT
RIDGE WITH SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FLUCTUATING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATTERN DOES LOOK MOSTLY
DRY AS BEST UPPER ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE. TEMPS WILL
BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO
SATURDAY...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS...ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A STRONGER WAVE CRASHES THROUGH
THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...THEN A REBOUND OF TEMPS AGAIN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER AN ADVANCING SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. ACCOMPANYING THAT RAIN WILL BE LOWERED
CIGS...PROBABLY MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE LOWERED CIGS AND PCPN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...TDK







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