Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231752 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Issued at 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Lowered temperatures today west of the James River. With a good
snowpack now in place, areas along the Missouri River have been
struggling to climb out of the single digits this morning.
Persistent stratus has become fog along the Coteau so added in a
patchy mention along I-29.

The system expected on Saturday continues to nudge westward.
Increased snow accumulations slightly across the region.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Snow has all but ended across the area, with scattered cloud cover
and some pockets of fog. Models show clouds dissipating today, with
afternoon sun. With recent snow and high pressure moving overhead
limiting mixing, can`t imagine we will warm all that
significantly today. For the same reason, temperatures will crash
tonight as well, though guidance does bring some cloud cover back
into the area which will help arrest temperature drops. Low
clouds will dominate across western/southern counties, while some
mid and high clouds are noted in BUFKIT for Aberdeen.

Focus shifts towards impacts from approaching system Saturday. A
shortwave ejecting into the plains will move across Nebraska to
Minnesota, with the best upper dynamics mainly to our southeast.
Best push of isentropic upglide is during daylight hours, with a
broad area of 5 to 15 microbars and a deep dendritic growth layer,
though its important to note that best lift is centered high up (400-
600mb) and not through the entirety of the profile. Still, with
less than 30kts below 700mb, we should still get some large
dendrites with this system. Peak model QPF in the CWA between the
NAM/Canadian is around .2-.3 while the GFS is closer to .1-.15 and
GEFS/SREF is right in that middle range. Thus, will stick with
the generally 2 to 4 inches for this system.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

The extended period will feature mainly dry conditions as high
pressure dominates the majority of the period. A low pressure system
will slide across the Central Plains on Thursday, but at this time,
the precipitation associated with it looks to remain south and east
of the CWA. Temperatures will be near normal through the period,
with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and overnight lows generally
in the 10 to 15 degree range.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

IFR cigs in KATY should lift early this afternoon with VFR
conditions expected through this evening. Low cigs should turn to
KATY later tonight. The rest of the terminals in this CWA will see
VFR conditions until 10Z. A storm system crossing the region on
Saturday will bring MVFR and IFR conditions with falling snow.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
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