Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 170215 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
915 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Issued at 908 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

No changes planned to the tonight period forecast. The forecast is
on track, as deformation zone rain band continues to slowly nudge further
east, generally straddling the Dakotas border with MN. The western
edge of the rain shield is running along the I-29 corridor at the
moment. HRRR/ESRL HRRR trends suggest continued slow eastward
movement out of this cwa by around 09z or 10z Thursday. Clouds,
gradient winds and remnant boundary layer moisture may help to
keep temps up some overnight. Current low temp forecast still
looks to be in the ballpark though.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

An area of rain associated with an upper level shortwave trough
overhead and a surface low pushing up from the south will continue
to affect mainly the southern and eastern portions of the CWA late
this afternoon, then just the eastern CWA this evening into the
overnight hours. Areas along and east of Interstate 29 may see
rainfall amounts in excess of half an inch into the evening hours.
This system will push east of the area on Thursday, with high
pressure dropping in and bringing a return to dry and warmer
conditions, along with mostly sunny skies.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to the lower
60s. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 70s to
the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Short wave trough and surface cool front still on track to affect
the region Thursday night into Friday as they slide in from the
northwest. Models continue to agree well and have been consistent
with this system bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, surface high pressure ridging will build in behind
Friday afternoon and night, and then to the southeast on
Saturday. The models continue to show an upper level low pressure
area moving across central Canada forcing a surface cold front
slowly southeast and across much of the Dakotas Saturday through
Sunday. The upper level flow will be westerly aloft allowing for
this boundary to slow down or stall out. At this time, this
boundary does not look to be active with showers/storms from
Friday night through Sunday until a short wave trough moves in
from the west. Thus, have it dry from Friday night through Sunday
with chances of showers/storms coming back for Sunday night. As
this boundary slows down/stalls chances of showers/storms remain
across the southern CWA Monday. The upper level flow then becomes
northwest from Monday night into Tuesday with Canadian surface
high pressure pushing in from the northwest bringing dry and
cooler conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures will be warming up from Friday into Saturday as winds
become south behind the exiting high pressure area. Above normal
temperatures in the mid 80s to the lower 90s are expected on
Saturday in advance of the surface front. Would not be surprised
with some mid 90s out west on Saturday afternoon. Cooler air will
bring temperatures back to near to slightly below normal for Sunday
through Wednesday dominated by surface high pressure.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Expect rain to persist across northeast South Dakota into west
central MN for several more hours on north-northwest winds. Rain
should be tapering off at KABR by 03Z this evening, and at KATY by
07Z tonight. But, sub-VFR conditions are expected to persist at
KABR/KATY tonight into Thursday morning before conditions begin
to improve at those two terminals. KPIR/KMBG should remain VFR
over the next 24 hours.




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