Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 220527 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1227 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 819 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

Isolated convection continues to form over the southeastern cwa
so will keep in isold/sct pops overnight. Temperatures look okay
for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

The models all agree well through the first part of the short term
with cool Canadian high pressure sliding east across southern
Canada, bringing prevailing cool northeast winds to our region.
As this occurs, a large upper level low pressure trough will kick
out of the southwest U.S. and into our region into Friday night.
Through Thursday night, low stratus and cool temperatures are
expected across our region. The current stratus this afternoon is
expected to lower through the night and deepen. Watertown has
already fallen below a thousand feet. There are also some
indications by the models of some very light QPF, probably
indicative of some drizzle. Otherwise, there will still be some
chances of showers and storms across the eastern CWA yet tonight
into Thursday. There was a small area of rainfall lifting through
the region late this afternoon shown on radar.

As the Canadian high pressure area pushes east and the upper low
pressure trough moves in from the southwest, a stationary front to
our south will lift quickly north across the region Friday and
Friday night. Thus, after a cool and cloudy Thursday, Friday will
see the low clouds break up/move north along with warmer air
moving in. Some locations will be in the lower 80s southwest in
our CWA on Friday afternoon. Thursday and Thursday evening are
expected to be mainly dry with better chances of storms later
Thursday night into Friday night as lift from the upper trough
moves in along with WAA and increasing instability.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

The extended period will see a cooling trend as a deep upper trough
moves over the plains on the weekend. Saturday will be the
warmest day with highs in the 70s.

The precip forecast is the biggest challenge due to model
differences regarding sfc low intensity on Saturday and Sunday. The
ECMWF wraps the low up more tightly and holds it farther west than
the GFS. Models are also hinting at some dry slotting as well.
The GFS settles a potent upper low over the Northern Plains at
the start of the week, keeping showers in the forecast. However,
while the ECMWF follows this trend, it is about 48 hours slower to
develop. Needless to say, stuck with consensus model blends which
keep low pops in through the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

Mainly VFR cigs/vsbys are expected through Thursday at KABR/KMBG.
However, KATY/KPIR will have a mix of MVFR/IFR cigs and perhaps even
some MVFR fog at KATY early on Thursday.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Parkin



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