Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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779
FXUS63 KABR 271530 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1030 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Continue to see a wealth of stratus clouds in the James valley
over to ATY. RAP suggests these clouds will hang on through the
late morning and perhaps even in to the early afternoon before
gradually diminishing in coverage or breaking up more into a
stratocu or cumulus field. Not going to make high temperature
adjustments at this time for the cloud cover. Will see when the
breaks occur and should see temp rises later in the day which
should get near projected readings. As for precipitation, continue
to watch the upper shortwave energy move east across the Dakotas,
but the CWA is free of any precip at this time. Hi-res CAM
solutions suggest mainly low areal coverage of anything that
redevelops later this afternoon, and that would be mainly across
the northeastern CWA. Will leave low pops through the day
basically for the eastern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

The broad sfc patterns shows central to eastern SD and west central
MN stuck between high pressure over the northeastern U.S. and low
pressure over Alberta. The main 500MB through set up from south
central Canada through the MT/ND border early this morning will
continue to shift east across the eastern Dakota this afternoon, not
only enhancing lingering precip over the east half of the cwa, but
sliding it eastward. The marginal risk of severe weather has shifted
to our northeast, but wouldn`t be surprised if Roberts/Traverse
Counties experienced some hail this afternoon. At the sfc, a smaller
sfc trough set up across western SD today will be trying to erode
the ridge still stuck over the far northeastern portions of the cwa.
While the 500MB trough exits east, and more zonal flow with embedded
waves will remain overhead.

The Canadian sfc low will slide east across northern Manitoba Sunday
night-Monday, and slowly drag a cold front northwest to southeast
across our area Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. Despite the
boundary shifting through, limited moisture and cooling are
anticipated. The main result will be a quick change to north-
northeasterly winds behind the front.

As for the non-precip weather, temperatures will be on the rise
through Sunday. By Sunday, highs mainly west of the James River will
end up in the 90s. Dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s will result
in RH values falling into the teens over central SD to the mid 20s
elsewhere. This will result in increased fire concerns. The drier
mixed dewpoints derived from the GFS were used to help blend into
lower afternoon values. However, at this point it looks like winds
should stay below RFW criteria levels.

Temperatures will be knocked down a couple of degrees Monday, behind
the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

A ridge over the Plains will keep the region`s temperatures above
average through the extended period with highs in the 80s to lower
90s. Models have been rather inconsistent with precip chances during
the work week. Weak sfc low pressure over the area from Wednesday
through Saturday may mean slightly higher pop chances, generally.
There will also be transient shortwave energy through the period
that may help kick off a shower or two.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period with the exception
of some short-lived, transient mvfr stratus near KATY early this
morning. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may move near KABR this
morning before exiting to the northeast this afternoon.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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