Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222327 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
627 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Pcpn chances are the main challenge this forecast cycle. After the
system in the east moves on, much of the upcoming night may be dry.
The ECMWF seems to be the biggest outlier in developing light pcpn
across much of the CWA in developing WAA pattern across the
region. If anything, model soundings would probably support dz
more so than measurable pcpn. For now am planning to stick with
plain old rain chance, especially over northwest forecast area
where model do maintain some semblance of a baroclinic zone that
extends northeast across North Dakota. By mid to late afternoon on
Thursday, an inverted trof/front will be making its way east over
the forecast area as a sfc low begins to pick up steam over the
Central Plains. Models indicate a surge of LLM/MLCAPE north into
the far southern part of the state by afternoon/evening. So, some
weak convection is possible over the far southern CWA before
drier airmass starts to invade from the north late Thursday night.
Temperatures look to be above normal over the next 24 to 36

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Models still continue with a southern track to the storm system
moving across the plains Thursday night through Friday night.
Surface low track is agreed upon well by the models now, taking it
out of CO and across the KS/OK region. This continues to suggest
most of the precip will be along the southern fringes of the CWA or
even further south than that. The 12Z Canadian still keeps QPF a bit
further north, but seems to be an outlier at this point. Inherited
POP grids looked OK and did not deviate from them for the time
being. Although, did back off on QPF over the CWA a bit and used a
50/50 blend of WPCGuide and SuperBlend. The Canadian was likely an
influence in some of the higher QPF values over the CWA, but it
appears this model may be an outlier. Otherwise, not seeing much
else real noteworthy for precip potential until perhaps the middle
of next week when another storm system may be affecting the region.

As for temperatures, given what models are showing for 925/850 mb
temps, things should be near to even a bit above normal through the
period. Although, no significant warming looks to be taking place.
On the other hand, don`t see any abnormally cold air masses ready to
move in either. Overall, expect highs to range from the upper 40s to
around 60 degrees across the CWA through the period, with the
warmest readings over the western CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight. Look for
MVFR cigs to overspread the CWA Thursday morning, along with some
periods of drizzle or light rain in the afternoon.




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