Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240526 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1126 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 911 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Skies have cleared over all but the far eastern CWA, and expect
that area will clear in a couple of hours or so. Have adjusted sky
conditions accordingly. No changes made to winds or temperatures
at this time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The main challenges for the very short range are winds/temps/rain
chc. A decent looking system will graze the CWA late tnt and
Friday morning. Moisture profiles look a bit better for Friday vs
yesterday, so expanded POPs are ok. The system does move through
fairly quickly, thus most pcpn chances will be limited to Friday
morning.

The system will also usher in gusty winds, especially with the
initial pressure surge, and then later as low levels mix out to
around H85. It looks to be a low end situation, but have decided to
go along with offices to my west and north, and issue an advisory for
late Friday morning and afternoon. GFS bufr soundings indicate that
the best mix down winds will probably occur from 11am to 3pm. The
gusty winds and relatively mild temperatures will also contribute to
high or very high fire danger over most of the area Friday
afternoon.

Temperatures should remain mild despite some cooling aloft. Deep
mixing layer will allow for temps to climb back into the 50s Friday
afternoon after morning clouds depart the region.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Not much to write about with this forecast as we continue to see
mild temperatures and dry conditions as the continuing story.
Warmest readings are Sunday/Monday, though the warm surge doesn`t
get going till mid day Sunday, so eastern counties may miss out
initially. A front swings through Monday, but with warm air
initially in place, we may benefit from the added mixing, though
the warm feelings may be negated by some wind gustiness. This may
very much be a replay of conditions we experience today/Friday. A
less impressive warm surge is noted for the second half of the
work week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Friday. An isolated rain shower or two may occur Friday
morning, mainly across the northern part of the area. Due to
uncertainty of the rain occurring, have opted to not mention it in
any of the TAFs at this time. Look for northwest winds to
increase into the 15 to 35 knot range on Friday, with some locally
higher gusts possible. The winds will begin to diminish during the
late afternoon hours.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ to 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/
     Friday for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin



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