Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241502
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

FURTHER ADJUSTED POPS TO GO DRYER FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION...AND
EXPECT INCREASED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE LATEST GUIDANCE AND FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. MOST EXPECTED IMPACTS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WITH SITES IN AND OUT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONSIDERING AREAL COVERAGE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
IS MINIMAL...AND SITES THAT ARE HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE
ONLY HIGHER THAN 30 MPH FOR BRIEF PERIODS...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN EVENT TODAY INTO MONDAY.
MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF
RAIN SHIELD WITH ITS PASSAGE.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES IN INHERITED POPS WITH FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE. CURRENT BANDS OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTH
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE OVER SURFACE AND ELEVATED BOUNDARIES
AIDED BY SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SD AND LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE RIVER
BY SUNRISE SO ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING. AS SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS SD TODAY NEXT WAVE ARCING AROUND
UPPER LOW WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF MAIN PCPN EVENT LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PROLONGED PERIODS
OF RA DUE TO SLOW TRACK OF LOW AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED BY
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL SEE SOME DEGREE OF
RAINFALL. HEAVIEST RAINS STILL LOOKING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2 WHERE 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE. FAIRLY MILD COLUMN IN PLACE BUT
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. WILL BE A WINDY DAY
WITH THE DVL BASIN FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LIMITS. BEING MARGINAL
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BUT DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE OVERNIGHT TO S MN BY
MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND LOW AS IT PASSES.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RISE SOMEWHAT SO RAIN MAY BE MORE
PATCHY BY MORNING.

DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WITH
LOW DEPARTING RAIN AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHRINK. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL SOLAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

RAIN SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT WITH TUESDAY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
WEDGES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A BIT BLO AVERAGE WITH COOL
COLUMN.

WEATHER PATTERN LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AND CHILLY OVER THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE REGION. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. TWO
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR UPPER SHORTWAVES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF
THIS PERIOD (MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION)...WITH DRY WEATHER IN
BETWEEN FOR THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN CIGS LOWER INTO MVFR AND IFR RANGE.
SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN FA TO
INCLUDE BJI. GUIDANCE GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND
RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND BASED TAFS ACCORDINGLY
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



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