Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 282139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
339 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Forecast continues on track so overall little change was made.
Upper low drifting a bit west now toward Cooperstown. Radar has
been showing an area of rain on north and west side of the upper
low continuing to move west and northwest with additional rain
spreading north to the east of the upper low attm. So message is
at least into the evening is highest chances for precipitation
eastern ND with a dry slot into the southeastern and eastern fcst

850 mb temps remain a bit above zero north of the upper low into
northeastern ND back toward DVl basin. This warm layer hangs
around tonight then goes away Tuesday. Surface temps continue to
slowly warm a bit into northeastern ND but overall expect not a
big temperature range tonight due to thick clouds and low level
moisture. Temps in area of concern...W of DVL and Cando and
Langdon 33-34F and dont expect any change. It would be a mix of
snow and rain this evening with these bands and with temps as they
are impacts should be minimal.  But something to watch closely.

Tuesday will see the moisture being cut off from the upper low and
a transition to more drizzly weather with patches of wet snow.
Temps above freezing so again little impacts anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Tuesday night to next Monday...Overall weather impacts to be
confined to light precipitation mid week and a gradual cooling trend
into the weekend. Highest chances for light snow will be Wednesday
morning with accumulations around an inch possible. Light snow will
mix with rain during the daytime hours limiting accumulations. Upper
low pressure system will finally move enough to the east ending the
potential for measurable precipitation during the day Thursday as
saturation aloft diminishes, read no seeder/feeder mechanism and
less upper level lift. North winds on the backside of the departing
system Thursday will draw a bit cooler air into the northern plains.
As a result the end of the week and into the weekend will be dry
with temperatures ranging from around 30F for highs and teens or low
20s for lows depending on cloud cover.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

IFR conditions expected for most areas into Tuesday as ceilings
will be at or below 1000 ft agl. Could be times of ceilings in the
1000-2000 ft agl range. Now visibilities due to areas of rain and
some snow mix along with areas of fog likely to vary and could
range from under 1 mile to p6sm. Winds east to southeast in the
RRV and NW/WC MN into tonight with a more northeast wind at DVL.
Speeds generally 10-20 kts with gusts 25kts or a bit higher.




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