Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 111852
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1252 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1252 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

No changes needed with this update other than to tweak hourly
temperatures to account for current trends.

UPDATE Issued at 939 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

No big update necessary this morning. Light snow has exited the
forecast area to the south and east as expected with an area of
clearing moving in behind it from the west. Did increase high
temperatures a few degrees in the southeast where lingering
clouds have kept things relatively mild early this morning. Other
than that, wind chills may improve to just out of advisory
criteria for an hour or two this afternoon (especially the
southern and eastern fringes of the advisory area) but will more
than likely keep current headlines going until issuance of new
ones for tonight as it will be marginal.

UPDATE Issued at 650 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Tweaked hourly temps this morning but otherwise fcst in good
shape. Lingering light snow in far southeast ND and west central
MN should exit 14-15z. Wind chills dropping into advisory levels
over NE ND and far nrn RRV and should lower a few more over the
next 1-3 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Fast moving short wave embedded within upper level jet moving east
along the SD/ND border into central MN early this morning was the
cause for the area of light snow. The light snow area is rapidly
moving east and diminishing a bit. Thus by 12z all but the far
southeastern fcst area will have any -sn mention with clearing
progressing southeast behind the short wave. High pressure will
drop southeast thru SW half of ND today with a west to northwest
wind in the 5 to 12 mph range. Just cold enough temps to keep wind
chills in the advisory range in much of E ND and far NW MN thru
the day. Far SE ND into WC MN and into the eastern fcst area will
not see cold enough sfc temps for wind chills to drop low enough
for headlines. This will happen though in that area after 00z Thu.
Since wind chills will remain in adv range most of the day in
current headline area will extend end time to 4 pm (21z) today.
Then at that time when fcst is issued the wind chill advisory can
be expanded for all of the fcst area. Winds will turn southwest
tonight and increase in speed ahead of cold front which will drop
southeast out of Canada.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Potent 500 mb short wave will drop southeast into central Manitoba
by early Thursday and then into NW Ontario. A cold front will drop
south thru the area Thursday with a period of gusty winds in the
20-30 mph range. This combined with cold temps will send wind
chills quite low. Coldest airmass over E ND and NW MN Thu night.
Just enough light wind to create wind chills into warning range
(-40F and below) for much of the fcst area. All dependent on exact
wind speed and temperature. Did agree with WFO DLH to lower low
temps Thu night/early Fri for eastern fcst area as that area
tends to drop quite a bit colder due to more sheltered locations
and less wind. Did include lows in the -30s in that area with -20s
elsewhere. Did include a low pop in Roseau-Warroad-LOW area for
light snow Thu morning as front comes thru as most models have
enough moisture and clouds for a bit of very light snow.

Warm up begins on Friday but will take most of the day to climb to
near zero or a bit above with a south wind. So will still be a
cold day.

For Saturday through Wednesday...
A mainly tranquil period is forecast as the overall upper level
pattern trends toward a split flow...with the northern stream in
central Ontario and the southern stream across the central and
southern plains. Resultant sfc high pressure will keep conditions
dry through the period...and the change in the pattern should see
temperatures rebounding to near or slightly above seasonal norms.
Otherwise...little precipitation is forecast for the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Issued at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

VFR through the period. Mostly clear skies with fairly light
northwest winds will gradually turn to the southwest as surface
high pressure passes to the south. By Thursday morning, winds
will switch back around to the northwest and increase as a
compact surface low moves across southern Manitoba. Winds will be
the strongest across northeast North Dakota so have included a
BLSN mention at KDVL for late in the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ001>005-
     007-008-013>016-022-023-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...Lee



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