Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261730
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED STORM IN EASTERN ND THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND A MORE RELEVANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT.

CURRENT VIS CONTINUES TO SHOW CU JUST SOUTH OF DVL AREA...WEST OF
A TONGUE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS IN EASTERN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BAND
OF STRATOCU ACROSS NORTHERN MB. MODELS SHOWING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR A STORM LATE AFTN IN THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...WHICH
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD PETER OUT AFT SUNSET. CLOUDS
TO THE NORTH WILL SINK SOUTH AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTL BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BOTH OF THESE ARE
COVERED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND SEEM REASONABLE. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM WILL BE WED NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE IN SW FLOW
ALOFT LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST. NO CHANGES PLANNED ON LATE AFTN OR TONIGHT
SHOWERS BUT WILL ADDRESS TOMORROW NIGHTS SYSTEM AFT 12Z ECMWF HAS
BEEN ANALYZED. SEVERE THREAT FOR ALL SYSTEMS IS NIL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NO SIG UPDATE NEEDED THIS FORENOON. PATCHY FOG FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AND TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WARMING ALONG
FORECAST HEATING CURVE. THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER SOUTHEAST OF AN
INL-BJI-BWP-ABR LINE WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A WEAK SFC TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
PRIMARILY A WIND SHIFT...WITH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA REMAINING IN THE
5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD OTHERWISE. SOME SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC HEATING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS


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