Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 302332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON THE ONSET
OF ANY PCPN INTO OUR NORTHWEST FA UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN ONLY FOR THE KDVL REGION INTO NORTHEAST ND. WILL GO AHEAD AND
MAKE THOSE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PCPN FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE FRONT
IS SOMEWHERE ALONG A KMOT TO KBIS LINE AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY PARALLELS IT. 700MB TEMPS
ARE VERY WARM...SO ANY CONVECTION LOOKS MINIMAL. LIKE MENTIONED
MOST MODELS SHOW THE BIT OF DEVELOPMENT FROM KDVL UP INTO
NORTHEAST ND AND NOT MUCH AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SOLUTIONS
SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY. PREFER THE DRIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT BUT WILL WAIT AND
SEE WHAT THE 00Z MODELS SHOW. LOWEST WINDS SHOULD BE ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE STEADIER WINDS EAST OF IT. THIS
COVERED WELL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM TO HOT TEMPS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN EASTERN ND AND INTO THE
RRV. SO FAR THE HOTTEST TEMP IS 95 DEGREES IN LANGDON...WITH LEEDS
CLOSE BEHIND AT 94. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE AT 65-70 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG IN THE EAST
TOMORROW THE AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING LIKE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED.

TUESDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS...AND TEMPS IN THE 80S. TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES IN THE WEST WITH
MODEST MUCAPE. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
NORTH RRV.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN A GREAT
ODDS WITH TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND 500 MB TROUGH.  THIS
PLAYS HAVOC WITH POPS ESP IN THE FRI-SAT PERIOD WHERE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER AND MAINLY DRY AND WARMER VS THE MUCH WETTER GFS MODEL.  THIS
HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST TWO MODEL RUNS.  WITHOUT ANY
CONFIDENCE ON EITHER SOLN AT THIS POINT KEPT IDEA OF SOME POPS FRI-
SUN IN THERE BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY OUT FOR
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS BELOW CONFIDENCE.  FOR WED NIGHT-THU
MAINLY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND VERY WARM ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS APPROACHING 90 ONCE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT KDVL LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS NOT MUCH
WILL HAPPEN ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD FALL OFF AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES LIKE THEY ARE ALREADY DOING AT KDVL. FRONT WILL SLOWLY
CREEP EAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



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