Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

845
FXUS63 KFGF 300429
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1129 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NO CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM SO MAIN
CHALLENGE MAY BE MORE FIRE WEATHER RELATED. THOSE CONCERNS WOULD
BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WIND SPEEDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...AS MANY LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ARE BURNING DURING THIS
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. SHOULD BE NEARLY CLOUD FREE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
WINDS START OFF FAIRLY LOW IN THE MORNING BUT INCREASE AND THEN
GET A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE NE BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY 850MB FINALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES
BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ND. WIND SPEEDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SUNDAY. THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER TOO. LOOKING LIKE A STEADY WEST TO NW WIND
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ON MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION IN NW FLOW...WHILE A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADA. THE ECMWF TAKES
THIS ENERGY AND CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER WY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODEL. STILL...THE IMPACT OF THE EC SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WOULD BE MINIMAL. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT LIKELIHOOD IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIP TEMPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY (UPPER
50S TO MID 60S)...BUT TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM HAVING AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY TO AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH...MODELS RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 70S OVER
THE AREA. EITHER WAY... PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY A BIT OF
CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
TOMORROW TO GUST ABOVE 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.