Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
654 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Issued at 653 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

No changes necessary. High clouds exiting northeastern fcst area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

sfc-500 mb warm advection over the area early this morning. Some
cirrus associated with the mid level warm advection moving thru
nrn MN with clear sky behind it. For the upcoming day expect full
sun with an increasing southwest to wind boosting temps well into
the 60s in most areas.  Clear and mild tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The focus for the upcoming week will be on fire weather. Although
the exact day of the highest fire weather danger has been shifting
over the past few model runs, guidance has been consistent in
showing warm, dry, and windy conditions during the week.

Tuesday will see warm afternoon highs in the upper 60s and low 70s
across much of eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley with
mainly upper 60s for west/northwestern Minnesota. Winds out of the
southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph are expected
across eastern North Dakota.

A dry cold frontal passage on Wednesday will bring clouds and
slightly cooler temperatures to the area, but a very dry airmass is
expected behind the front with strong winds. Counties along the
North Dakota/Canada border down to the Devils Lake region could
experience relative humidities drop to 20 to 25 percent with
northwesterly winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph
possible. With the passage of the front out of the area to the east
late Wednesday afternoon, most locations through the Red River
Valley and northwestern Minnesota can expect relative humidity
values between 25 to 30 percent with breezy winds.

Thursday and Friday can expect to see temperatures to rebound into
the low to mid 70s with southerly winds at 10 to 15 mph. Relative
humidity values should improve during this period from 30 percent
Thursday to 50 percent Friday as moisture from the south is advected
north under upper level ridging. Rain chances will enter into the
forecast for Saturday with the approach of an upper level trough and
associated surface low and cold front. Highs in the 60s for Saturday
will give way to upper 50s and low 60s for Sunday and Monday with
clearing conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR thru the pd. Skies mainly clear. Winds southwest and
increasing 12 to 25 kts in the afternoon then diminishing a bit
at night.




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