782
FXUS63 KFGF 301905
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
205 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Lightning
  and hail to the size of pennies would be the main threats
  with stronger storms.

- Severe thunderstorm chances return Independence Day (Friday)
  into next weekend to parts of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow prevails today through Wednesday, with H5 ridging
building into the area late Wednesday into Thursday. A trough
continues to move from northwest to southeast this afternoon,
allowing isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly east
of the Red River. Precipitation has been rather brief, but
moderately heavy in locations where development occurs. Heading into
Tuesday, precipitation chances will be minimal, with only a slight
chance of scattered showers and storms along the International
Border during the late morning through late afternoon. Another
shortwave rapidly traverses the area on Wednesday ahead of H5
ridging. This will allow moisture return into the area late
Wednesday through Thursday and into Friday, the 4th of July. Another
system is expected to form and bring a chance for strong to severe
storms to portions of the area on the 4th; however, timing and
spatial extend remain low confidence. Active weather is expected to
persist into the weekend and early part of next week as shortwaves
continue to traverse the upper extent of a flattening H5 ridge.

...Scattered Storms this Afternoon...

For this afternoon, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will
largely be driven by daytime heating and good low level lapse rates.
Mid level shear and lapse rates are not supportive of organized
storms, with instability also relatively low, generally ranging from
900 to 1200 J/Kg of SBCAPE. Most of the observed storms this
afternoon have been rather short-lived, and low impact.

...Chance of Severe Storms from July 4th and the Weekend...

H5 ridging works slowly east Thursday into Friday with moisture
levels increasing ahead of an approaching shortwave. MLCAPE is
ranging from 2000 to 3000 J/Kg; however, current model soundings
indicate a shear profile that is slightly displaced from the better
forcing along the front. It is worth noting that timing is very
uncertain, with ensemble members trending a bit slower in recent
model runs. This would line the shear up a bit better and bring the
front through during the late afternoon, thus increasing the chance
for severe storms as long as the cap is able to break. The later
scenario also supports slightly larger MLCAPE that could exceed 3000
J/Kg. The shortwave timing will ultimately determine potential
impacts; however, all scenarios bring a chance for at least isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms Friday and possibly into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

MVFR conditions prevail at KBJI and KTVF this afternoon with
KFAR going between VFR and MVFR. Look for a continuation of this
pattern through the remainder of the afternoon, with a few
thunderstorms starting to develop through around sunset.
Confidence in any one location or time is somewhat low, but
there should be enough coverage to allow a mention of VCTS for
sites in the Red River Valley as well as northwest Minnesota.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch