Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
342 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Models generally in agreement with synoptic pattern. Much of the
region will remain influenced by ridging...although a portion of
the DVL basin may get clipped by forcing (weak showers) from weak
upper waves ejecting from trough about to crash onshore across the
western CONUS. At any rate...not many impacts expected. Cloud
trends will likely be the biggest challenge with an area of low
ceilings expanding westward across northern Minnesota. Most
guidance indicates these clouds will affect areas east of the
valley during the morning hours today...then dissipate or advect
north this afternoon (which makes sense given the sfc to 950mb

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Saturday-Sunday...Ridging remains in place this
weekend...beginning to transition to southwest flow aloft by later
on Sunday. Above normal temperatures expected. Shower chances will
hinge exact timing of any upper waves ejecting from western CONUS
trough...enough of a chance to include low end PoPs for the DVL
basin later Sunday into Sunday night. QPF minimal.

Monday-Thursday...Monday starts out with southwest flow aloft,
which looks to set up a southwest to northeast oriented surface
boundary. Hard to nail down exactly where this boundary would set
up this far out, but at this point it starts out over northwest ND
on Monday and finally pushes east of the FA on Wednesday. Until
this boundary moves east, temps look to remain quite mild. Mon/Tue
look to be above normal, Wed falling back toward normal, and then
cooler on Thu.

Moisture looks fairly robust for early October, with sfc dew points
in the mid to upper 50s both Monday and Tuesday. Guidance puts pcpn
chances all through the long term period. However, the best chances
may occur along and behind the above mentioned boundary. Therefore
the best chances would be over the Devils Lake region Mon/Tue, before
spreading into eastern ND on Wed. The closed 500mb low moves right
overhead on Thu, bringing equal chances for pcpn across the entire


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Focus is on Bemidji thru the pd and possible TVF. Ceilings remain
nr 3000 ft Bemidji and that cloud mass is slowly moving northwest
but not likely to clear out. Meanwhile short range models latching
onto IFR cigs Duluth area moving WNW toward Bemidji late
tonight/Fri AM and also risk of 1/2 to 1sm in fog. Confidence isnt
high in fog and that low of vsby but also cannot rule it out so
will add it. TVF may yet get back into some lower clouds late
tonight/Fri AM. Clear otherwise with increasing high and mid
clouds esp into DVL basin. Southeast wind 5 to 15 kts.




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