000
FXUS63 KFGF 102343
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
643 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MID CLOUD ADVANCING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND FROM BACK ALONG THE I 94 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BIS AND JMS. SO FAR
NO REPORTS OF PRECIP...SO DRY FCST LOOKS GOOD. WE DO BRING
LIKELIES IN AFT MIDNIGHT (LARGELY FOR BLENDING PURPOSES) BUT THE
RUC KEEPS ALL PRECIP RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SD STATE LINE.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO FCST AT THIS POINT BUT MAY ELECT TO PULL
POPS ON 10 PM CDT UPDATE IF SITUATION WARRANTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY ON WILL BE TEMPS AND PCPN POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR TONIGHT BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE THICKENING
ACROSS THE FA LIKELY CAPPING TEMPS FOR THE DAY. WINDS HAVE STAYED
WEST TO NW TODAY WHICH HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION.
THEREFORE WITH THE SUN TEMPS ACTUALLY HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT WHERE
THEY GOT TO SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL BE COOLER. ONCE WINDS
BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BY LATE EVENING THEY
SHOULD AID THE COLD ADVECTION A LITTLE BETTER. IN ADDITION THE
MODELS STILL HAVE THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHERN FA LATER TONIGHT. SO TEMPS WHEN
THIS PCPN BAND MOVES THROUGH WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHETHER IT
WILL FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW. AT THIS POINT THINK THE PCPN WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE FA BUT IF IT DOES NOT WILL KEEP IT AS SNOW. STILL A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING SSE ON TUE WHICH SHOULD ALSO SPREAD A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPS TUE LOOK TO STAY BELOW 32 FOR MOST AREAS. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT
AND WILL SPREAD A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

WED HIGHS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM TUE. NEXT SHOT OF WARM
ADVECTION RELATED LIGHT SNOW COMES WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
WED NIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY MILD WITH WEST WINDS AND THEN HIGHS ON
THU WILL BUMP BACK UP INTO THE 40S.

FOR THUR NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXTENDED TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAT AVERAGES TO ZONAL OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS...TRANSITIONING TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SETUP WITH UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED OVER SW CONUS AND LOW NORTH OF GREAT LAKES BY LATE
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON...OFFERING
SLIGHT SN CHANCES AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS SAT INTO SUNDAY. LATER
IN THE PERIOD ZONAL FLOW RETURNS (THIS TIME USING A BLEND OF THE
12Z MORE NW GFS WITH THE MORE SW ECMWF) ALONG WITH ENOUGH MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONSIDER A MIXED PCPN TYPE EVENT IN TIME FOR
THE WEARING OF THE GREEN NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CIGS WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE NW AND PICK UP
TOMORROW AFTN AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. ANY
PRECIP WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...SPEICHER