000
FXUS63 KFGF 291855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND THEN SFC RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL TODAY. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOLLOWING 925MB-850MB RH WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...AND ADDED FLURRY
MENTION TO MOST AREAS. ANTICIPATE FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 14
AND 29 HUNDRED FT. OCCASIONALLY VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN TO 1 TO 2
MILES IN LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOOP INDICATED SOME CLEARING FROM ROSEAU T
BACKER COUNTIES AND FROM CAVALIER TO STEELE COUNTIES. CLEARING WAS
ALSO OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER BUT CLOUDS
WERE REFORMING WITH THE SUNSHINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO INDICATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL SASK. SO EXPECT CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND EAST INTO MN. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SASK TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES