000
FXUS63 KAPX 111718
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
118 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM...THOUGH OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...BREEZY...AND WARM TODAY. THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
SOGGY...BUT MILD...BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR SLAMS BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SETUP MAY PROVIDE SOME
LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED AS THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING...AS
ARE A COUPLE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS FROM WISCONSIN. THESE ARE ON
TRACK TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ROUGHLY 19-01Z...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS. RH LEVELS DIPPING FAST IN AREAS
THAT ARE WELL-MIXED...WITH THE CURRENT IDEA OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WELL IN LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

BEAUTIFUL MORNING OUT THERE WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
IN SPOTS...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKING JUST FINE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST ISSUES STILL LOOK TO BE GOOD MIXING/
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL AS A ROUND OF HIGHER-BASED
SHOWERS ARRIVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
ROLLS OVERHEAD. 12Z APX RAOB STILL POINTS TO THE GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL...WITH A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT UP TOWARD 700MB (VERY
POSSIBLE) SUGGESTING DEW POINTS FALLING BACK THROUGH THE 20S AND
LOWERING RH VALUES DOWN IN THE 20-25% RANGE...WHILE TAPPING INTO
BETTER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO SUPPORT SOME GOOD GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS. THAT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES
AS WESTERN SPOTS WILL SEE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLIER...LIMITING
THE FULL POTENTIAL OF MIXING. OTHERWISE... STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR
A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HEALTHY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PUSHING 8C/KM HELPING MATTERS. BASED
ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO NUDGE POPS
UPWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT SCATTERED MENTION SHOULD
WORK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE-GOOD IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH
QUEBEC...WITH ASSOCIATED TRAILING MAIN SFC COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF
NRN MICHIGAN. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO....EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN PROVINCES
OF CANADA. IN THE WNW/NW FLOW ALOFT UPSTREAM...A FEW DARKENING
PATCHES ON LATEST WV IMAGERY OUTLINING WEAKER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
TRACKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. ONE OF
THESE WEAKER WAVES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ILL-DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE
ON THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH...AT THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. THIS
FEATURE WILL CROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT...WHILE HELPING THE FRONTAL ZONE SINK SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN
UPPER TONIGHT. THE MORE IMPORTANT WAVE AND MID LEVEL JET STREAK ARE
DIVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE EXITING EAST. WEAK SFC HIGHER PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER NRN MICHIGAN WILL EXIT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS RETURNING
A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT NOT DRAWING ANY GOOD SFC MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. RATHER...IT WILL BE QUITE DRY AT THE SFC...BUT WITH
WARM...AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE
850MB)...WHILE THE DAKOTAS WAVE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES
BECOME QUITE STEEP. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS LOOKING VERY REALISTIC WITH
HIGH BASED SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKING LIKE A SOLID BET. EXACTLY WHERE
THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING IS A DAUNTING
TASK. HOWEVER...THREE AREAS SEEM LIKE THE BEST BET. ONE...ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER WHERE AFOREMENTIONED NRN FRONT WILL SAG CLOSE TO BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND WHERE WSW WINDS WILL HAVE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE
ON COOLER STABLE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. SECOND...MAYBE FAR NW
LOWER/STRAITS...WHERE THERE MAY STILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND LIFT (LLJ) AHEAD OF THE WAVE. FINALLY...ACROSS THE
THE EASTERN HALF OF NRN LOWER...AWAY FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WHERE THE 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE MOST
STEEP. THIS WAVE EXITS THIS EVENING...AND WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE (COULD TAKE LONGEST ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE THAT FRONT SNEAKS INTO OVERNIGHT). A MORE SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EJECTING
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT BELOW).

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE SOME PATCHY MID CLOUD ARRIVING THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CROSS THE REGION...ENDING
EITHER BY EVENING/OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS FEATURE WILL POSSIBLY
BE ABLE TO SPREAD INCREASING HIGH BASED CLOUDS IN OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S IN EASTERN UPPER WITH 50S ACROSS MOST OF
NRN LOWER. LOWER 60S IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF NE LOWER...BUT THE
COASTAL AREAS THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

...RAINY AND MILD THIS WEEKEND THEN TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

IT LOOKS LIKE SOME VERY INTERESTING WEATHER IS HEADED OUR WAY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGING EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN JET STREAM
ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED
THANKFULLY).

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RIDE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY...COLDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FIRST DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION WILL TRY TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK
NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WHAT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN (THOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY MODELS VARY ON JUST HOW FAR
NORTH THE TRACK WILL BE). OF COURSE THE EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR IS ABLE TO CATCH UP TO THE MOISTURE TURNING
RAIN OVER TO SNOW. IT IS STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO GET TOO
DETAILED....THOUGH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO BULLISH WITH THE INITIAL
SOUTHEAST EXTENT OF COLD AIR. RAIN OR SNOW IS THEN LIKELY NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR LIKELY MAKES SOME INROADS IN FROM THE
NORTH/WEST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAT RAIN WILL TOTALLY CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WITH RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY
SOUTHEAST. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM VERY LITTLE TO A DECENT
AMOUNT OF HEAVY WET SNOW BUT ITS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN SUCH
DETAILS (A CONTINUED MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW). LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR CONTINUES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKING TO DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY. MILDER
AIR LOOKS TO THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY WITH WARM
ADVECTION DRIVEN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THURSDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. THAT SYSTEM WILL DEPART THIS EVENING...AS THICKER CIRRUS
ROLLS INTO THE REGION...GIVING WAY TO THICKENING MID CLOUDS ONCE
AGAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP
TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD (MAINLY AFTER 17Z)...BUT NOT
WORTH A MENTION JUST YET. WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE