Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 190501
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
101 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Few changes needed to the current overnight forecast. Weak
shortwave sliding across northern parts of the area with rather
anemic area of very light showers/sprinkles moving through
northern Michigan. Difficult to even find any observations showing
less than 7sm visibility. Cold front slides through the area
Wednesday morning, followed by an area of lower clouds/patchy
drizzle. This confirmed by upstream observations. Conditions will
improve Wednesday afternoon, although still remaining basically
cloudy.

UPDATE Issued at 702 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Decaying line of showers continues to work toward northern
Michigan this evening. Current forecast has this light QPF event
handled well and forsee few changes. Do have some concerns about
period of lower clouds/patchy drizzle behind the front Wednesday
morning. Looking upstream, this is certainly a possibility and
will add a few hours of patchy drizzle to the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

...Scattered showers tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Somewhat progressive and nearly zonal
flow pattern remains in place across the CONUS, downstream from a
large scale trough/upper low in the eastern Pacific. Well defined
short wave and attending surface low continues to roll through
the upper midwest...now crossing far northern Wisconsin into the
U.P. with a cold front back into the central plains. Narrow
warm/moist air (theta-e) wedge points up into the western Great
Lakes ahead of the system, feeding a decaying batch of
precipitation moving through Wisconsin/western upper Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Minimal. Shower chances tonight.

Dampening short wave/attending surface low will cross the northern
lakes region tonight dragging surface cold front and decaying batch
of showers through the CWA. Not looking to be a big deal with
rainfall amounts under one tenth of an inch anticipated. Cold
front swings through late overnight/early Wednesday morning and
there may be a brief window of low stratus right in behind the
front as slightly cooler airmass spreads into the region.
Inherited drizzle in our forecast for Wednesday morning but
decided to remove...since it`s such of brief window of time...and
to better align with with our neighbors.

Otherwise...cloudy skies Wednesday morning will give way to thinning
cloud cover during the afternoon as surface high pressure quickly
slips across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

...Rain Moves into the Region, Possibly Heavy...

High Impact Weather Potential...Heavy rain along the M-55 corridor
that could lead to low level flooding along some rivers.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure moves into the Upper Great
Lakes Wednesday night, along the warm front As the low moves into
the state, the rain will continue from the low level jet forcing the
warm, moist air over the warm front along the M-55 corridor. The low
is just getting into C Lake Michigan by 15z/Thu, so the rain will
continue from the isentropic lift that will continue into the
afternoon and with the Showalter index of -2c, there will be
elevated thunder as the sfc low crosses the region. By 00z/Fri it
looks like the low will be crossing Upper Michigan, and the Dry air
in the 700-500 mb layer level will begin to diminish the moisture
overnight. The drying should continue into the day on Friday,
leaving the afternoon dry and partly sunny.

Primary Forecast Concerns...As has been said the last few days, the
main concern is the heavy rain potential. This situation looks
similar to the previous system that went through the region earlier
this week with rain fall amounts of 1.00-1.50" across N Lower. The
WPC excessive rain fall outlook has the entire lower peninsula in
the Marginal chance for excessive rain. This seems reasonable as the
SREF plume for QPF are clustered between 1.00 and 1.50" of rain for
the 24 hour period. At this point, the main area of concern will be
the rivers that are between the M-55 and M-72 corridors, give or
take depending on the track of the low.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The extended period is still looking quite dry, with only a few very
weak signals of any precip at all, with high pressure dominating the
Great Lakes region until the beginning of next work week, when
models begin to hint at the next storm system impacting the forecast
area. Only concern is whether or not a shortwave trough and some
lingering moisture from a departing system will continue to generate
nuisance precip and clouds Friday night into Saturday morning or
not. Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s and lows in the 30s
throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

VFR conditions through much of tonight as a weak weather system
moves through the area with scattered light showers and sprinkles.
LLWS should be diminishing overnight as well as core of strongest
winds aloft pushes east.  Cold front passes through the region early
Wednesday morning, likely followed by a band of MVFR/IFR clouds and
possibly patchy drizzle.  Cigs will return to VFR for Wednesday
afternoon with northwest winds around 10kts.  Larger and stronger
storm system approaches the western Great Lakes tomorrow night, with
widespread rain developing (especially after 06z).  This will also
result in an extended period of lower cigs into the day on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 956 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Gusty southeast winds have diminished some this evening, with most
locations now below SCA criteria. Because of this, will let SCA
expire at 2 am.

Winds shift into the north and eventually NE on Wednesday...but
winds/waves will remain below headline thresholds through the day.
Winds further veer easterly Wednesday night into Thursday and
increase once again...in advance of another stronger wave of low
pressure that will cross the region Thursday. Small craft
advisories will likely be needed again on the waters, particularly
on Lake Huron.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRK
NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...TBA



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