


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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623 FXUS63 KAPX 062030 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 430 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms today with locally heavy rainfall possible. - Generally quieter and cooler weather to start the work week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 429 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Pattern Synopsis: Shortwave troughing will slide east of the Great Lakes tonight, flattening as it works over the St. Lawrence River on Monday. At the surface, the cold front currently draped across the far SE corner of the CWA will continue to work into the southern half of the state overnight. Mainly zonal mid/upper-level flow will overspread the region Monday as heights gradually rise behind the shortwave, helping to build high pressure into the Northwoods to start the work week. Forecast Details: Widespread showers will persist across northern lower Michigan this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms are also expected mainly southeast of a line from Cadillac to Alpena. A few storms capable of strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out, as noted in SPC`s mesoscale discussion from earlier this afternoon, but current thoughts are that severe wind gusts are unlikely with any activity tonight. MLCAPE exceeding 1,000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis will support thunderstorms over the next several hours, but relatively weak deep layer shear around 30 kts or less will struggle to organize storms. Primary threat with activity through this evening will be localized heavy rainfall across our southeast counties with potential training storms over the next several hours. Impressive PWAT values around 2" will support very efficient rainfall, and localized totals of 1-2" or more will be possible where heaviest rain falls. Otherwise, rain chances diminish through tonight with rain-free weather and highs in the mid to upper 70s expected for most on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 429 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details: Shortwave troughing will slide across the Upper Midwest Monday night into Tuesday, eventually working overhead later Tuesday. Progression looks to slow through the middle of the week as troughing meanders across the region, eventually departing east in the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Rain-free weather is expected to continue through most of Tuesday before our next chances return Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another stretch of dry weather appears likely through the second half of the week as troughing departs, returning again to start the weekend. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than average through the period with highs in the 80s for most areas into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Conditions will begin to improve this evening across the region as the ongoing showers continue to move west. Current IFR and LIFR ceilings will transition to MVFR breifly tonight followed by cloud cover clearing and returning to +25,000 ft. KMBL can expect some BR late overnight into the early morning hours of Monday before returning to VFR conditions shortly after sunrise. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...DJC AVIATION...SJC