Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 170335
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1035 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FOCUS FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT DOWN INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

RATHER LARGE DOMINANT SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
POUND PORTIONS OF ERN MACKINAC COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING...AND HAVE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS A RESULT. LOCAL REPORTS OUT OF ST IGNACE
SUGGESTED >2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL AT TIMES UNDER THIS BAND. HAVE
ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR EMMET COUNTY AS NW PORTIONS OF THIS
COUNTY ARE ALSO LOCATED UNDER THIS BAND AT TIMES. EXPECT SOME
LOCATIONS IN MACKINAC COUNTY WILL SEE CLOSE TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW
TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. EXPECT NW EMMET
COUNTY WILL SEE UP TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TONIGHT. THE REST OF NW
LWR MICHIGAN WILL SEE A NIGHTTIME TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND SUBSEQUENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH HIGHER WINDS.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: A LOT OF THIS HINGES ON LAKE EFFECT AND ITS
NUANCES WITH THE WIND DIRECTIONS. HOWEVER, IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
PROLONGED BOUT THAT COULD PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.

OVERVIEW(ANALYSIS AND FORECAST)...CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE JUST NORTH
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE 500 MB LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THIS BRINGS A PROLONGED BOUT OF LES AS THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES STAY AROUND -15C THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH/LOW HANGING IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
WELL, WHICH BRINGS ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AS WELL. THIS PRODUCES
AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE LES THROUGH THE REGION. SO INSTEAD OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED, THERE MODERATE TO HEAVY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DOMINATE BANDS INCREASING. ALSO WITH THE CLIPPER,
THERE IS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT POST COLD FRONT, SO WILL EXPECT
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING HIGHER. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE LINE. THIS WILL BE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

(11/17)MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE BULK OF THE TIME DURING THE DAY IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 12Z
TO WEST FLOW BY 18Z TO WNW FLOW BY 00Z. THIS IS A PROBLEM FOR
APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS FROM ANY PROLONGED BANDS, HOWEVER, WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING, WILL EXPECT SOME CONVERGING BANDS
AND REALIGNMENT OF THE BANDS AS WE TYPICALLY SEE. THIS COULD IMPACT
THE TIP OF THE MIT AS THE WINDS WILL PIN WHEEL HERE WITH THE THREAT
AREA FOCUSED AROUND LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY. THE FETCHES WILL START AS
100+ MILES WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND BE LIMITED FOR A FEW HOURS,
UNTIL THE GREEN BAY CONNECTION AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION ARE
REALIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NW
IN THE EVENING BEFORE MEANDERING BETWEEN 300 AND 320 DEGREES. ALL
THIS TIME WE HAVE BETTER THAN 80% RH IN THE 850 LEVEL AND IN THE 700-
500 MB LAYER AS WELL AS THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE REGION. THE NOTED
EARLIER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE TIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SO WILL HOIST WINTER STORM WATCHES AS
THE IMPACTS OF THE WINDS AND THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNINGS LATER.

(11/18)TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT THE MORNING WILL PROBABLY START
OUT AS THE CONTINUATION TO THE MONDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS AS THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -15C AND WINDS ARE BETWEEN 320 AND 300
DEGREES THROUGH 18Z, WITH SOME QG FORCING AS THE 500 MB LOW RETREATS
TO THE EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALL THIS LOOK
LIKE IT WILL DO IS SHIFT THE SNOW BANDS FROM THE NW FLOW TO W FLOW
PATTERN AND PUT THE BIGGEST THREAT IN THE REGION NEAR LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY AGAIN. SO WILL EXPECT THAT THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MODERATE
TO HEAVY, BUT NOT SURE WITH THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHETHER ANYONE OUTSIDE OF THE EXPECTED NW FLOW THREAT IN
THE MORNING WILL SEE ANYTHING TO

TUESDAY NIGHT...WE ONCE AGAIN GET BACK INTO SW FLOW, AND WE COULD
AGAIN SEE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW IN THE TIP OF THE MIT/E UPPER NEAR
US-2 OVERNIGHT. WITH THE -13C 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MOISTURE
(RH>80% AT 850-700 MB) DON`T SEE A REASON FOR NOT HAVING MODERATE TO
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS.

(11/19)WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY, BRINGING WITH IT SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH THE
ORGANIZING BANDS. EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
00Z. OVERNIGHT, THE ECMWF CONTINUES NW FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE. THE
GFS BEGINS TO TURN WEST, WITH A 50% RH IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL
BE LIGHT OR HEAVY.

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... (11/20)THURSDAY...BOTH MODELS
NOW AGREE ON NW FLOW AND SNOW IN NW LOWER. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL
SOME DIRECTIONAL DIFFERENCES (WNW (GFS) VS NW (ECMWF)) WHICH
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT. (11/21)FRIDAY...ECMWF GETS INTO A POST
FRONTAL NW FLOW, THE GFS GETS INTO WESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH, BOTH
BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, AND THEN STOPPING BY THE
EVENING. DRY OVERNIGHT. (11/22)SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
(11/23)SUNDAY...RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS BRING WARM AIR (ABOVE
0C AT 850 MB) AND SFC TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL. SO WILL
GO WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

S/SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TARGET OUR NW
LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES (PLN/TVC/MBL)THROUGH MONDAY...DROPPING
CONDITIONS TO IFR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. APN WILL REMAIN VFR
THRU MONDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH JUST A PASSING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED. S/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

A RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS/WAVES TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES.
ON MONDAY...POTENT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS TURNING INTO THE WEST. BUT
WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS A
GOOD BET ON A LARGE PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND HAVE HOISTED A
GALE WARNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ON THE HURON SIDE PARTICULARLY FROM THAT STRETCH FROM
THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES
AT THIS POINT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
FOR THE REMAINING NEAR SHORE AREAS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ015.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ019-021-022-027-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ008-016.

LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJG
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...ADAM



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