Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 242331
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
731 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...AND INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH COOLER WEATHER
TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES ITS WAY FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST...BISECTING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.
BUT...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS NOW WORKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE
STATE (APPARENT REMNANTS OF YESTERDAYS CONVECTION IN THE MIDWEST)
BRINGING WITH IT A NARROW AXIS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED PRECIP RETURNS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR PLOT WORKING
UP THROUGH CENTRAL EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY
THAT IT/S LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AT BEST. MEANWHILE...FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINS STUCK ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA
TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED TO VARYING DEGREES OVER
NW LOWER TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS ALLOWED
SOME SUN TO BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 80. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE CWA
IS STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING AND FURTHER TO SW BY MONDAY MORNING. THAT...COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...SUSPECT REMAINING STRATUS DECK DOWN THROUGH
SE LOWER MICHIGAN WILL GET SCOOPED BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THIS EVENING. THAT SAID...LOW CLOUDS MAY GET SCOURED OUT A BIT
LATER TONIGHT TOWARD MORNING AS S-SW FLOW INCREASES. BUT
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING INTO
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT (WITH ADVANCING MOISTURE AXIS...SEE BELOW)
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. FOG...NOT AS MUCH OF
AN ISSUE TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW.

PRECIP CHANCES: EASTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE (THETA-E) GRADIENT THAT HAS
BEEN POISED OUT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST THE LAST FEW DAYS...FINALLY BEGINS
TO FOLD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THE NRN ROCKIES KICK UP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND STRONG S/SW
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TONIGHT ALONG THIS GRADIENT STILL LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UP ACROSS ONTARIO...AS WELL AS
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST...ALL WHERE A STRONGER
LLJ AND BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. BUT I CAN SEE A
NARROW AXIS OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED CONVECTION TRYING TO NOSE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING ALONG THE ADVANCING MOISTURE
GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN STRONGER FORCING WILL SPLIT NRN MICHIGAN
NORTH AND SOUTH (THE `OL CWA SPLIT AGAIN).

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: NOT IMPRESSED. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A RIBBON
OF STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES
SLIPPING INTO THE REGION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR. BUT AGAIN...FORCING IS ANEMIC AND TSTM CHANCES ARE LOW...NOT
ZERO BUT LOW AND AM TEMPTED TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST
ALTOGETHER. BUT...WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR WESTERN
PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING JUST IN CASE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINOR. WATCHING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SURPRISES
WITHIN LATEST MID AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS...WITH CURRENT
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN STEADILY GIVING WAY TO ONE OF A MUCH MORE
ZONAL FLAVOR HEADING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT PATTERN
ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN...SPURRED ALONG BY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES...WITH IT
SIGHTS SET ON FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL EFFECTIVELY PUT AN END TO OVERHEAD RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AS IT
PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS...AND
ADDITIONAL BACKSIDE ENERGY WILL FORCE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH BY THE END OF THIS WEEK...BRING AN END TO OUR EARLY WEEK
MINI HEATWAVE...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL/EVOLUTION/AND INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ADDRESSING
LATE WEEK ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WELL...AFTER PROMISING SOME RATHER TOASTY WEATHER THE LAST
FEW DAYS...LOOKS AS IF MONDAY JUST MAY BE THE DAY TO DELIVER SUCH AS
THE AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN APPROACHING FAR
WESTERN LAKES COLD FRONT AND MUCH SLOWER TO YIELD EAST COAST SURFACE
HIGH. RESULTANT DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW BRIEFLY TAPS INTO
UPSTREAM HEAT DOME...PROPELLING H8 TEMPS UP INTO THE HIGH
TEENS/AROUND 20C! ONLY LIMITING FACTOR ON JUST HOW WARM CONDITIONS
REACH AT THE SURFACE WILL BE WHAT SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE LATTER...STILL NOT
OVERLY ENTHUSED WITH OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE WITH ALL DEEP LAYER
SUPPORT PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH PARENT SHORTWAVE. SOME
HINTS OF A MUCH MORE SUBTLE EMBEDDED FURTHER SOUTH WAVE...AND WHEN
TIED WITH INCREASE IN SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SOLAR INSOLATION/
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEFINITELY SUPPORTS AT LEAST A
SCATTERED MENTION OF MOIST CONVECTION PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS PASS BY WELL TO OUR
NORTH...SUPPORTING BOTH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. STILL...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME
PULSE TYPE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM CORES (ISOLATED SEVERE?) AS ML CAPE
APPROACHES 2K J/KG (NOT TOO SHABBY FOR THESE PARTS). CAPE UP THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS NOT TOO TERRIBLE EITHER...SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED
STRONGER WIND GUST/SOME HAIL WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER CORES.
SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR SURE. BACK TO THOSE TEMPERATURES...BARRING
TOO MUCH CLOUDS/SHOWERS...SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM
INHERITED HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...OF COURSE WARMEST SOUTH OF THE
BIG BRIDGE.

ABOVE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR A SECONDARY FAST MOVING
SOUTHERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TO HELP PROPEL THIS FRONT WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AN IDEA THE ROCK STEADY ECMWF HAS
NOW HAD FOR MULTIPLE RUNS). WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW EXPECTED FRONTAL
TIMING FOR ENDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH THE THREAT FOR ALL RAIN ENDING BY WEDNESDAY. SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WELL POST-FRONTAL...AND ACCOMPANYING
TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE ONE. STILL SOMEWHAT WARM
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...GIVES WAY TO HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ONLY REACHING
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND AS WHAT`S LEFT OF WESTERN TROUGH GETS SHUNTED EAST. MORE
VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW NOT TOO FAR AWAY...AND WILL HAVE
PLENTY TO SAY ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE TIED TO
SOUTHERN WAVE MAKES IT. WILL SAY THAT THE PROGGED PATTERN HAS THAT
LOOK OF A MORE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN/OHIO VALLEY WET PERIOD...WITH OUR
AREA LAYING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANY BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL.
SIMPLE GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH WILL BE UTILIZED FOR NOW...BRING
ADDITIONAL LOW END RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PLENTY OF TIME
FOR CHANGES OF COURSE...AND PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN
THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

LOW STRATUS...AREAS OF FOG AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PLN AND APN THANKS TO ESE
FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY
AND LOW CIGS/FOG WILL MIX OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE FORECAST PICTURE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN AND IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN...
BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL VEER SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLIP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. WINDS MAY GET A BIT GUSTY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

WINDS VEER NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM





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