Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 192024
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
324 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A quiet day across nrn Michigan with a continual feed of weak
vorticity originating from troughing off the pacific coast, plowing
through the near zonal fast flow aloft. Another shallow shortwave
trough and associated sfc low is seen working through western
Ontario, with a trailing weak cold front draped back through nrn MN
and eastern SD. Strong WAA, mainly aloft, continues to increase this
afternoon, strengthening an inversion, and creating very stable
conditions that can`t tough much of the strong SW/WSW winds aloft.
Quite a bit of dry air remains below roughly 500mb, but a fairly
deep depth of higher level moisture within that pacific weak
vorticity feed, resulting in continued mostly cloudy skies.
Temperatures at the sfc have indeed not responded well to the
minimal mixing in the stable low layers, with readings mostly 35 to
40F.

Not much change in anything is expected through Saturday. The
shallow wave and low pressure in Ontario will cross into Quebec by
Saturday morning with the weak cold front passing through nrn
Michigan. There is an indication that the higher level moisture can
sink down below 10ft across eastern upper, but there looks to be too
much dry air below that for any light rain/snow. Upstream radar and
sfc obs confirming that, with no reports of precipitation. As the
front crosses tonight, maybe some pockets of low level stratus can
fire off, as seen in a few obs around the cold front, but the
signals for these low clouds in the fcst soundings are weak.
Otherwise, for Saturday, more weak energy aloft expected to roll
through with just some more mid/high level clouds. The passage of
the cold front will at least allow for a shallow amount of mixing
that could result in some minor gusting, but winds aloft are
weakening through the day.

Nothing spectacular with no precipitation expected outside of the
real small chance for very very light rain/snow in eastern upper
late this afternoon and evening. Lows tonight in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Highs Saturday again in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

...Focusing on the Storm...

High Impact Weather Potential...Increasingly high.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Precipitation type/timing/amount.

Energy currently across the southwestern states will emerge east of
the southern Rockies and head northeast toward the western Great
Lakes over the next few days. Models continue to differ on the exact
track and resultant thermal profiles. The GFS/NAM/Canadian continue
to be the farthest northwest bringing warm air aloft across all of
northern lower. Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues to be the coldest and
farthest south keeping a mainly snow and sleet scenario for eastern
upper and much of northern lower. Because of uncertainty will
continue to leave all options open. Generally speaking the better
chance for an all or mostly all frozen event (snow/sleet) is across
eastern upper with snow/sleet/freezing rain likely across far
northern lower. Farther south has the best chance for a change over
to all rain. Still a little too early to consider headlines as
impacts do not look to arrive until late in the 5th period (Sunday
night) or possibly even the 6th period. (Monday).

Saturday night into Sunday...fairly quiet weather for the most part
as a strong area of high pressure ridges down from the north.
However, models continue to advertise a ribbon of warm advection
driven moisture across far northern lower and across eastern upper
Sunday. This would likely fall in the form of snow but with little
in the way of accumulation. Lows in the middle to upper 20s. Highs
in the middle to upper 30s.

Sunday night into Monday...a dry easterly flow will likely only
slowly moisten the column up Sunday night (lots of dry mid/upper
level air per model soundings) depending upon your model of choice.
Models do agree that better moisture arrives during the day Monday
but differ on the form of precipitation as stated above. So expect
precipitation to over spread the region later Sunday night into
Monday morning and continue into Monday afternoon. Still can`t pin
down snow/ice amounts but this system has the potential for a large
impact. Lows mainly in the 20s and highs ranging from the upper 20s
north to the upper 30s far south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

Long range models are still in a bit of disagreement of exactly
where a low pressure system over the central Plains will track
...as it moves towards the Great Lakes region Monday night. This
sytem has the potential to produce any form of precipitation over
our forecast area...especially northern lower, as eastern upper
should get all snow with any scenario. Confidence is still too low
to forecast exact precip type and amounts. Highs will generally be
in the mid to upper 20s through Thursday and then moderate into the
mid to upper 30s Friday. Lows Wednesday and Thursday will be in the
single digits to teens Wednesday and Thursday and then into the 20s
towards the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR conditions through the TAF period under a continual feed of
mid and high clouds. Very stable low levels will likely limit
gusting enough from stronger SW winds aloft will likely lead to
prevailing LLWS through much of tonight. Also, there are
indications of increasing shallow moisture late tonight into
Saturday with the arrival of a weak cold front. Could be some MVFR
at times, but not totally sold on this idea just yet.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD



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