000
FXUS63 KAPX 050447
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1147 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR MIDWEEK...SUPPLYING CONTINUED CHILLY
TEMPERATURES BUT SOME SUNSHINE INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON FRIDAY...YIELDING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW...BEFORE DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

-SHSN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FADE...WITH OBS/RADAR BOTH SUGGESTING
WE/RE PRETTY MUCH DOWN TO FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. THAT
SAID...THESE REMAIN RATHER PERVASIVE WHERE CLOUD COVER
LINGERS...INCLUDING THE STRAITS REGION...THE FAR SE...AND SAULT
ONTARIO.

CLOUD COVER AND THUS TEMP TRENDS WILL REMAIN A CONSIDERABLE
CHALLENGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS CAN BE BEST DESCRIBED
AS VARIABLE...WITH A SOMEWHAT LARGE CLEARING AREA IN NW
LOWER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS IN THE SE...AND SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE STRAITS AREA NORTH (AND EVEN WELL NORTH OF THE SAULT). TEMPS
HAVE TUMBLED VERY NICELY WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT...WITH BELLAIRE -3F AND FRANKFORT -1F. GIVEN THE
TREMENDOUS PUSH OF DRY AIR IN CENTRAL UPPER AND NW LOWER MI
(850-700MB RH NEARING 5 PERCENT BY DAWN)...AM DOUBTING THOSE AREAS
WILL CLOUD UP AGAIN TO ANY GREAT EXTENT. EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
WILL HANG ONTO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUD COVER LONGER...THOUGH THE
GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD CLEARING. MIN TEMPS ADJUSTED
SHARPLY LOWER IN MUCH OF NW LOWER...MINOR CHANGES ELSEWHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

SHSN ARE SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT ARE A FAIR WAYS FROM
DISAPPEARING. COVERAGE REMAINS HIGHEST IN NORTHERN LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF M-32 AND EAST OF M-37. SOME TWEAKS TO SHSN AND SKY
COVER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DECENT CLEARING WEST OF TVC AND UP
INTO CVX/INDIAN RVR...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LOOMING FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER. ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB) AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST
ONTARIO SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN SHORT TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND HOW COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY/FLURRIES EXPECTED TO WANE THIS
EVENING AS MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. THOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
LAKESHORES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS THE FLOW VEERS FROM THE
WEST INTO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH
DROPS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT BY 12Z WED).

TOUGH CALL ON LOW TEMPERATURES WILL 950 MB WINDS AVERAGING ABOUT 15
KNOTS OR SO. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE FLOW TO DECOUPLE AND COMBINE
WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF INTO THE -5 TO
-10 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. COULD SEE EVEN COLDER READINGS BUT WILL
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE (WHICH WAS CUT BY A FEW DEGREES).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR-WAVE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND THE NRN
HEMISPHERE TODAY WITH ANCHORING TROUGHS (AND COLDEST AIR) STILL
SITTING ALONG 60W AND 130E (OUR PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR MONTHS.
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC PUSHING WARMER AIR AND
MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. SOME OF THIS WARMER AIR IS TRYING
TO MAKE SOME MODEST INROADS INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. BUT
COLD AIR JUST CONTINUES TO HANG OVER EASTERN CANADA...PERIODICALLY
DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SO WHILE WE
DO "WARM UP" SOME...WITH NORMAL HIGHS NOW INCHING INTO THE MIDDLE
30S...WE REMAIN LARGELY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

WEATHER-WISE...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA...CERTAINLY NOT A SETUP FOR HIGH IMPACT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE
GREAT LAKES (I.E. DEEPENING STORMS FROM THE SW). IN FACT...THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE S/SE STATES. BUT WE WILL
SEE A FEW NRN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR
LOWER END PRECIP CHANCES. SO OVERALL...CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE THINGS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AND
VERY DRY AIR) BUILDS DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES/NEW ENGLAND AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AIRMASS
REMAINS VERY COLD (-15C TO -20C H8 TEMPS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BUT
DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKES ARE OF COURSE NEARLY ICED OVER (>90
PERCENT) AND THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE AREA. MAY HAVE SOME LEFTOVER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM FROM TODAY.
BUT OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE THINNING CLOUDS AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES ACROSS THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR CLEAR
SKIES AND ANOTHER POTENTIALLY VERY COLD NIGHT. BUT...WE NEVER
SQUARELY GET UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND MIGHT MAINTAIN
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING AS MUCH AS
WE SAW THE OTHER NIGHT. COLD NONETHELESS...AND HAVE UNDERCUT ALL MOS
GUIDANCE SOURCES FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...DRY...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS INCHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND THROUGH THE 20S UNDER INCREASED SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST FLOW...FINALLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SLIPPING
THROUGH THE REGION LATER FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT IMPRESSIVE FROM A
PRECIP CHANCE STANDPOINT...LIMITED MOISTURE...MAIN FORCING TO OUR
NORTH. BUT OF COURSE...CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCY TYPE SNOWFALL SNEAKING
INTO THE NRN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
NORTH WOODS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. INHERITED CHANCY POPS TO THAT
EFFECT AND PLAN NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS DRAGS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EURO
SOLUTIONS HAVE NOTHING LIKE THAT...ALTHOUGH IT DOES HAVE A STRONGER
WAVE CROSS THROUGH ONTARIO LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO RESOLVE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND. BUT AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY LOOKS SAFE (DRY) BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT INHERITED A
DRY FORECAST AND HAVE NO COMPELLING REASON TO CHANGE THAT AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS...MILDER...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHERE WE HAVE BEEN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...JUST AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE FORECAST
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH EVERY NEW MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL RUN GIVING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT RESULT. BUT SOME HINT
AMONG THE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS THAT WE SEE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND SLIP
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THAT COULD RESULT
IN SOME LOW END SNOW CHANCES. BUT AGAIN...MUCH UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

MOSTLY VFR.

COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTH...REACHING THE NORTHERN LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL DIMINISH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS. NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
APN...BUT THIS RISK IS SMALL. ONLY APN SHOULD HANG ONTO ANY
STRATOCU INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO NE FLOW OFF OF ICY
LAKE HURON.

NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE-ERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ