Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 151935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
335 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Southerly low level winds continue to strengthen in advance of the
approaching cold front this afternoon. Front itself remains well
upstream...still extending from Western Minnesota into the Central
Plains. Associated high cloud shield has overspread our entire CWA.
Leading edge of low clouds lifting NE thru Lower Michigan has
reached into all by far NE sections of Lower Michigan and a few
locations across far Eastern Upper Michigan attm. As
precip has developed thusfar across our CWA...with the closest
shower activity still well to our west over Central Wisconsin along
the weak instability axis and narrow 850 mb theta E ridge just ahead
of the front. Low clouds have been more effective in limiting
diurnal warming than expected...with locations under these low
clouds barely reaching 60 degrees this afternoon.

As we head into the late afternoon and evening hours...low cloud
shield will continue northeastward spreading into the rest of our
CWA over the next few hours. Showers will continue to develop along
and just ahead of the approaching cold front...making their way
eastward into western sections of our CWA by 00Z. Precip will
continue to slowly slide thru our area during the remainder of the
night and into Sunday...with just a small area of chance POPs
lingering across our far SE CWA near Saginaw Bay for Sunday
afternoon. Instability will be rather meager (MUCAPES generally less
than 250 J/kg) as the northern tip of the 850 mb theta E ridge
slides thru ahead of the front. With better instability and moisture
staying well SW of our CWA...will stick with only a slight chance of
thunder thru tonight and into Sunday. Some brief clearing should
take place behind the front on Sunday across Eastern Upper and far
Northern Lower Michigan before clouds and precip surge back
northward Sunday night as another wave develops along the front
(see detail below).

Tonight will be quite mild for mid October as temps only cool a few
degrees into the mid 50s to around 60 under thick cloud cover and
continued WAA. Front will slide thru our CWA on Sunday with overall
little change in airmass expected. Thus...expect a mild mid October
day with afternoon highs well into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Synoptic pattern: Transient Pacific dominated pattern across the
CONUS early next week, resulting in mild temperatures and several
days of unsettled weather.

Quasi-stationary front across central/southern Michigan Sunday night
will lift north as a warm front later Sunday night into Monday in
response to deepening upper low over the Plains.  PWAT`s of greater
than 1.50 inches coincident with steepening mid level lapse rates
and a developing 850mb theta-e ridge axis all point toward numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday night into early Monday.
Front stalls out in the vicinity of eastern upper Michigan by later
Monday into Tuesday as next upstream wave rides along it.  This will
spread additional showers and possibly some thunderstorms into the
area, particularly the northern half of the region.  Although
forecast instability is not that impressive right now with regard to
potential CAPE, shear parameters are impressive on Monday and
certainly it will bear watching as to severe potential with any

A very humid mid October airmass for Monday night into Tuesday, with
dewpoints creeping into the 60s in many areas.  This low level
moisture will prevent temperatures from falling much Monday night,
with lows int the 60s in some areas (more in line with July than for
October).   These readings would break record high minimum
temperatures for some locations.  A cold front will finally push
through later Tuesday, helping to scour out the deep layer moisture
and instability across the area. Temperatures remaining very mild
both Monday and Tuesday, with highs well into the 60s or lower 70s.

Following are some of those record high minimum temperatures for
Tuesday, October 18th:

Gaylord   59 (1965)
Traverse City   58 (2007)
Alpena   54 (1994)
Houghton Lake  55 (1994)
Sault Ste. Marie  54 (1963)


Tuesday night through Saturday...

Fairly tranquil weather is expected across the northern Great Lakes
to start the extended period with Monday-Monday night`s front well
east of the area across the Ohio Valley by Tue night. High temps on
Tuesday may approach or slightly exceed 70 degrees toward Saginaw
Bay, while others range through the 60s - some 10-15 degrees above
normal! Cooler air gradually filters into the area beyond Tuesday as
Canadian high pressure sags into the region with guidance indicating
a large spread in feasible solutions come the end of the work week.
Won`t try to nail down the specifics at this point, but if the
cooler set of guidance prevails with -6 to -4 C H8 air overhead
(ECMWF, several GEFS members), we could be talking about the
season`s first flakes for a few lake effect prone locations Friday
night. Confidence in this solution panning out is fairly low, so
will continue to refrain from using the actual "S" word for now,
both here and in the grids...



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

MVFR CIGS will gradually lower to IFR tonight as showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms develop from west to east across
Lower Michigan along and ahead of an approaching cold front. VSBYS
will also lower to MVFR/IFR tonight as areas of fog develop along
with the shower activity. LLWS is expected again tonight...mainly
during the evening just ahead of the cold front.


Issued at 335 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Conditions will continue to barely reach gale warning criteria over
Lake Michigan thru much of tonight...with the rest of our area
reaching SCA criteria thru the night along and ahead of a cold front
moving thru the region. Winds and waves will fall below all headline
criteria for Sunday and Sunday night as a wave develops along that
front and lifts it back northward thru our area. Showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms will develop from west to east as this
front sweeps thru the region tonight. Precip will gradually end on
Sunday...with renewed chances developing Sunday night as that front
waves northward again.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.



LONG TERM...Keysor/Gillen
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