Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 131123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
623 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

...Quiet and not as cold...

High impact weather potential: None.

High pressure centered over lower MI early this morning. Some cirrus
and high mid-clouds are streaming into lower MI from the wsw,
otherwise skies are clear. Not surprisingly, temps have plunged in
this scenario, with sub-zero readings widespread across n central
and ne lower MI. With the high departing to the east, deep warm
advection will develop, and persist thru the near term period.
Temps will rapidly moderate, with not much else of note going on.

That high will be over southern New England by the end of the day,
and move offshore tonight, while low pressure moves into s central
Canada. We will see increase sw 1000-850mb winds today, veer wsw
tonight. That fetch (especially the tendency to veering tonight)
limits the ability to draw significant moisture northward.

A weak but fast-moving shortwave will race across Superior in the
1st half of the day, with the best shot of associated moisture
glancing by eastern upper MI at 18Z today. Nam BUFR soundings show a
near-saturated airmass from 5k to 15k ft, but with a touch of dry
air centered on 2.5k ft. Nam/Rap/HRRR all inclined to have
measurable QPF just graze by Whitefish Pt. Will mention a
small chance for snow showers north of M-28 between 11 am and 3 pm.

Behind that shortwave, warmer and relatively drier air arrives.
Clearing will occur from w to e this evening. Models (Nam in
particular) show a shallow surface-based moist layer developing
toward morning, so a shot of some patchy stratus forming very late

Max temps today mid/upper 20s. Min temps tonight mid teens to mid


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

...Mild temperatures...

Primary Forecast Concern...Possible freezing drizzle Wednesday night.

High pressure in control Wednesday into Wednesday evening as milder
air advects into the region. However, a weak area of low pressure
and associated cold front will approach the region overnight
Wednesday and move through the region Thursday. Looking at model
soundings, moisture is rather shallow (confined to under 2500 feet
or so) overnight Wednesday. Therefore, could see some drizzle or
even freezing drizzle during the early morning hours of Thursday. As
the moisture deepens Thursday afternoon, rain or snow showers will
be possible. Highs Wednesday ranging from the middle 30s north to
the lower 40s south but brisk southwest winds will make it feel
colder. Lows Wednesday night within a couple of degrees either side
of freezing. Highs Thursday in the middle and upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

...Roller coaster ride in temperatures...

Colder air advects into the region Thursday night through Saturday
morning. However, northern Michigan then looks like it will be
between arctic air to the north and mild air to the south as Alberta
Clippers move across the region Saturday afternoon through Monday.
It should turn cold enough for some northwest flow lake effect snow
showers Thursday night into Friday. This will be followed by a
chance for light snow Saturday afternoon. As the milder air edges
into the region Sunday into Monday precipitation type will become
uncertain (basically chances for rain or snow showers). Temperatures
will be near seasonable levels through Saturday then look to be
several degrees above average Sunday into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 623 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

VFR. LLWS tonight.

High pressure is moving east away from lower MI. Warmer air will
move northward into the region over the next 24 hours. Mid and
high clouds will be seen, but we will be comfortably VFR.

LLWS tonight, as sw winds increase just off the surface.




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