000
FXUS63 KAPX 141114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
714 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
MORE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
A LITTLE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
WEST WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS...

IMPACTS: RIVER AND LOWLAND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY LOWLAND AREAS NEAR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN NRN LOWER. THE PRIMARY THREATS RESIDE SOUTH OF
M-72.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

LARGE UPPER TROUGH NESTLING IN OVER THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A
SHORTWAVE AND SHOT OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
INCREASING MID LEVEL JET...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING INTO NRN LOWER. RAINS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR SOME
TIME NOW WITH LATEST REPORTS UP TO 1.5" QPF IN THE LAST 12 HRS.
BRIEF AND TRANSIENT AREAS OF FGEN RESULTING FROM INCOMING NRN STREAM
ENERGY...HAVE TIGHTENED THE LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. THE FGEN
HAS NOT SEEN TO HAVE RESULTED IN ANY SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. THIS WAVE WITH EXIT NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH MUCH
COLD AIR WRAPPING BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM AT THE BASE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS WORKING INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION STRETCHING THROUGH KANSAS. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL LIFT
UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN JUST AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. INCREASING DEEP LAYER -DIVQ DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA...WHILE
THIS BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS COLDER AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SFC LOW LIFTING
THROUGH NE LOWER. THE RAINS WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO/OR MIXING WITH
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH JUST RAIN ACROSS NE LOWER. SUBSIDENCE
BACK BEHIND THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY SUPPRESS AND PRECIP...WHILE ALSO
LOCKING IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION (SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW) WILL HOLD ON LONGEST ACROSS MAINLY NW LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. HEADING THROUGH AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH
DAMP AND GLOOMY WEATHER FROM STUCK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. EVENTUALLY THE
ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR THE NEW BATCH OF PRECIPITATION FROM
THE PANHANDLE WAVE TO BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH LESS FORCING AND OVERALL QPF. EXPECT MOST ALL
AREAS TO SEE AN INCH OR SO...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS
WESTERN CHIP/MACK...WHERE CURRENT RAINFALL MAY ALREADY TURN TO SNOW
BY DAYBREAK AND HELP OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGHS WILL BE AT DAYBREAK FOR MOST...IN THE LOW/MID 30S IN EASTERN
UPPER...RANGING TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY WHERE SOME
WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK. READINGS WILL JUST FALL
FROM THAT POINT ON...THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON UPPER 20S
AND 30S WILL BE ALL OVER NRN MICHIGAN...A BLAST OF WINTER...AGAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

...UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF APRIL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY
AND REBOUND SOME MORE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR A LITTLE PRECIPITATION OVER
THE COMING DAYS...FIRST IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN RAIN SHOWERS
THEREAFTER. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THEN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

TUESDAY....UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ENCOMPASSES THE REGION AS WE GET A
QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR (850 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -14 TO 18 C ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA). THE COMBINATION OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT (THOUGH
AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN IS IN QUESTION)
AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH 40 TO
50 PERCENT) SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...HIGHEST WEST.
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER AND THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A FEW RECORD LOWS HAVE A GOOD SHOT OF BEING
BROKEN...ESPECIALLY AT GAYLORD (14 IN 1980)...ALPENA (18 IN 1939)
AND SAULT STE MARIE (14 IN 1904).

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME
WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES THOUGH
SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK LIKE ALL SNOW). HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
KEEPING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRING
OUT MOISTURE FROM A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE AXIS OF THIS MOISTURE LIES OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE THEN STARTING TO
COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAINFALL. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DURING THIS PERIOD SO WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY LIFT OUT LATER IN THE WEEKEND SO WILL
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

IFR CONDITIONS TO MVFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. COLD AIR COMES RUSHING INTO THE REGION
(RIGHT AS OF ISSUANCE ACROSS NW LOWER). WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF
THE NNW AND BE QUITE GUSTY AT 25 TO 30 KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW
TO START MIXING IN THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MEANWHILE...LIGHT
RAIN WILL TEMPORARILY BE MODERATE ACROSS APN. ALL AREAS COULD SEE
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX IN WITH PRECIPITATION...FOR A TIME LATE
THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. THEN...ANOTHER SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
(SNOW) WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND BRING BACK
MVFR/POSSIBLE TEMP IFR VSBYS. THIS SNOW EXITS WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...NOT LEAVING APN UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OFF THE WATER INTO NW LOWER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

...UPDATE...

DECIDED TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE...AS RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THERE COULD BE SOME DELAYED
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS NRN LOWER. CERTAINLY THE HEAVIEST OF RAINS
ARE JUST ABOUT OVER...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXING
WITH/CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NW LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

YESTERDAYS RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE M-55 CORRIDOR HAVE
EXACERBATED ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND AIDED IN
SNOWMELT. CURRENT WAVE OF RAINFALL HAS RANGED FROM NEAR 2 INCHES
SOUTH OF GTV BAY THROUGH GAYLORD (ROUGHLY AN INCH OF RAIN) AND
INTO NE LOWER AROUND ROGERS CITY. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS STILL
EXPECTED TO CREST QUITE HIGH AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE M-55
CORRIDOR AND FURTHER NORTH...MORE SO INTO NW LOWER. THIS WAVE OF
RAIN ALONE LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...BUT CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF EARNED COUNTIES SEEMS MORE
THAN REASONABLE. NO ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
FLOOD WARNING...WITH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUING JUST A FEW MORE HOURS
ALL OTHER AREAS OF NRN LOWER. THIS BECAUSE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS NW LOWER. AM LEANING TOWARD CANCELING THE
FLOOD WATCH AT 7AM...AS RAINFALL INTENSITIES WILL BE FALLING OFF.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SMD
HYDROLOGY...SMD