Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 151731
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1231 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

High pressure is making steady eastward progress across the
southern lakes. 1000-850mb winds are backing toward the sw as this
occurs. This is helping to push Lake Superior-driven cloud cover
(originally on a wnw trajectory) out of eastern upper and far ne
lower MI. At this moment, some clouds are still hanging on along
the coastline between APN and Rogers, and more emphatically in
central and southeast Chippewa Co. There is some land-breeze
induced cloud bands over northern Lake MI, and these will come
ashore in parts of nw lower MI and Mackinac Co today. Some tweaks
made to cloud cover.

Otherwise, this is a sparkling but (in places) chilly morning.
Those places with the most persistent clouds are much milder,
with mid 20s in much of eastern upper MI. Conversely, Grayling is
still at -3f at 10 am. Temps will still recover nicely with
diurnal heating, but a downward adjustment is in order in parts of
northern lower MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

...Overall quiet weather to finish the weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential...morning FZFG possibilities.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Split flow pattern remains in place
over the western CONUS with a southern branch closed low
(Tuesday`s system for us) rolling through northern Mexico heading
back into the SW/S CONUS. More or less zonal flow downstream
through the eastern CONUS with low amplitude ridging through the
SE states and troughing through eastern Canada into New England.
Large area of surface high pressure has reloaded across the
midwest and is edging into the Great Lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns...minimal. Perhaps some morning FZFG to
address.

Aforementioned surface high will drift across the state today and
to the mid Atlantic coast by Monday morning, bringing continuing
dry weather for northern Michigan. Batch of lake cloudiness off
Lake Superior stretches across eastern upper Michigan and down
into NE lower Michigan early this morning, and will hang around
for a chuck of the morning, before thinning and getting shoved
eastward out of the region as low level winds back southwesterly
by afternoon.

Meanwhile, with some fairly cold temperatures and a little bit of
daytime melt on Saturday, a few interior surface obs are hinting
at the development of some fog this morning. Will see how this
plays out, but we may be looking at some freezing fog this morning
and may ultimately necessitate an SPS as we head toward morning.
Will see...

Tonight, quiet and mainly clear. Low pressure will be skirting
through Ontario into Quebec and will lead a bit tighter pressure
gradient and an uptick in surface winds across northern Michigan.
This will keep temperatures warmer and pretty much any fog issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

...Hazardous travel possible late Monday night into early Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Icy mix likely Monday night into
early Tuesday.  Slick and hazardous travel.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:  Upper low ejects out of western trough
on Monday, inducing stronger ridging across the Great Lakes with
deep warm air advection (aloft) and gradual moisture advection.
Plenty of dry air in the boundary layer despite moistening aloft,
which will keep most of the precipitation at bay into Monday night.

Ascent will be strongest above 10k ft, and dry air below 750mb will
be an impediment to seeing precip. Cloud cover will very much be on
the increase, though most areas will still have a partly to even
mostly sunny morning.  Likely a dry day during the daylight hours
Monday with gradual top down moistening resulting in thickening and
slowly lowering clouds. Some patchy precipitation begins to push into
southwest parts of the area Monday evening, although main push of
deeper moisture will be after midnight associated with the surge of
warm air aloft. Initial precipitation could be snow, sleet or
freezing rain, with rain or freezing rain becoming the predominate
type as the heaviest precipitation arrives with more pronounced warm
nose.  Boundary layer temperatures not all that cold (after a mild
day) for Monday night, but with a wedge of dry air below 700mb,
believe wet bulb processes will be the main player in creating p-
type and icing issues.  Models have trended a bit colder overall the
past several runs, with 925mb temperatures still around -2c on 12z
Tuesday over northeast lower into eastern upper.  Cold air deeper
over eastern upper (but dry air also deeper) and the warm nose is
much less pronounced, so it may take quite a bit of time to get the
precipitation north of the bridge, and it will likely remain snow,
sleet or freezing rain longer.  Could easily see 0.10 to 0.20 inches
of ice accumulation across the higher terrain and over northeast
lower, with less toward the Lake Michigan coast thanks to warmer
boundary layer temps (downslope).  If these trends continue, this is
looking like an advisory event.  Slick and hazardous travel appears
likely in some areas for the Tuesday morning commute.

After some lingering freezing rain issues early Tuesday, a
transition to plain rain over northern lower.  Things may remain a
bit "mixy" over parts of Chippewa County where surface based cold
layer struggles to completely erode.  Pops diminish overall
throughout the day as upper low slides into upper Michigan.  May
even see some drizzle Tuesday afternoon with temperatures generally
in the 30s to around 40.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Stronger wave passes south of the Great Lakes Tuesday night into
Wednesday with weaker northern stream wave sliding across the
northern lakes. Cooler air eventually slides into the area, likely
transitioning any lingering precipitation to a rain/snow mix or just
snow.  Precipitation amounts look light through this time, as
forcing remains weak.  Some minor snow accumulations possible and
will have to watch for any re-freeze issues which could develop by
early Wednesday morning on side roads.

Mild conditions for the remainder of the week as pattern becomes
rather blocky and not terribly progressive.  So trough in the west
and ridge in the east.  Highs in the 30s and 40s (50 in some
areas?), with lows generally in the 20s and mainly dry weather.
Precipitation chances increase again next weekend as the upper ridge
begins to break down as lower heights slowly edges
eastward.  Temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Mostly VFR, except for periods of MVFR this afternoon.

High pressure over the southern lakes will move gradually east.
One last bit of lake effect cloud cover (before warmer air
arrives) has blossomed over northern Lake MI. This will bring MVFR
cigs for a period this afternoon at all TAF sites except APN.
Otherwise, just cirrus expected into Monday morning, with clouds
then lowering and thickening as the day proceeds.

A light sw wind will persist.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Lighter winds/waves will persist through tonight. A bit stronger
winds develop Sunday and Sunday night and may bring some lower end
small craft advisory conditions to parts of Lake Michigan.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...JRK
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...TBA



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