Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231813 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
113 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS FOR MBG AREA SO HAVE
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 18Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW PRETTY
HARD FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT /AROUND 25 MB
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/ HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN SWITCH
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN
ABLE TO PULL SOME THE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...KMBG GUSTED TO 48 MPH
WITH A BRIEF SHOWER LAST NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRONG WINDS. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
COINCIDENT WITH MODEST 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING
FURTHER WEST HOWEVER. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SO TRENDED POPS DOWN ACROSS THIS
REGION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS THEN POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD TRANSPORT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. IF THE
FORECAST OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HOLDS...RED FLAG
WARNINGS MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PEAK HEATING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN/EVOLUTION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. STRONG
TROF WILL ENTER THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
CROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY. AT THAT POINT THE PATTERN STARTS TO TURN VERY BLOCKY
AND LEADS TO MOST MODELS CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PER VARIOUS UVM PROGS/TROP MAP IT APPEARS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND MOVE
ACROSS THE ABR CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS THOSE TWO PERIODS
SHOULD SEE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...ONE THING STANDS OUT VS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT SUNDAY IF PCPN IS
INDEED AS WIDE SPREAD AS MODELS ALLUDE TO.


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE MAY AFFECT THE
TAF LOCATIONS AND WILL MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE
VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AT ALL
LOCATIONS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...EXPECT MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILINGS TO FORM AT ABR AND ESPECIALLY ATY WITH SOME LIGHT FOG AT
ATY. THE SKIES WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE WINDS
COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-
     UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-
     DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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