Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 280520 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1120 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED OVER TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NO INDICATION
OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OCCURRING...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR IT
REMAINS AS WAA BETWEEN 850HPA AND 700HPA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
TOWARD WESTERN MINNESOTA. SKIES ARE CLEARING OFF BACK TO THE
WEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A VIGIL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY STEADY...OR SLOWING WARMING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. NO CHANGES NEEDED RIGHT NOW TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD
FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WAA CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD A FEW FLURRIES AT
ABR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RADAR ECHOES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WAA LIFT INCREASES
OVER THE RETREATING COLD AIR. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED THEM SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ALSO...WITH THE WARMER AND HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR LIFTING OVER THE SNOW COVER...THERE SHOULD BE
LOWERING STRATUS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING. MAY HAVE TO PUT SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND A
STRONG INVERSION...THE STRATUS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PUSH OUT OF THE
EASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WAA...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A LITTLE BY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP/PUSHING OUT
OF THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY
WITH NOT MUCH WIND OVER THE SNOW COVER WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING IN. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
COOLER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA. KEPT WITH MAINLY 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NORTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT COMES BARRELING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY AT THIS
POINT.

BY MONDAY MORNING 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH...SO WIND SPEEDS COULD PLAY A FACTOR. HOWEVER...EVEN
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TREND
COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS. GUSTY RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEY HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY OR CONSENSUS ON
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS ENERGY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS NO LONGER IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL.
VFR FLYING WEATHER HAS RETURNED...AS ALL THE MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
OF THESE SUB-VFR CIGS COULD TAKE A JOG SOUTH AND CLIP THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS. BUT AT THE MOMENT THAT SEEMS LIKE A LONG
SHOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS ACROSS CLOUD-FREE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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