Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 200746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
246 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

A sfc ridge of high pressure is overhead, extending from a larger
low across WY/CO. The parent high will swing across NE and KS,
allowing the trough across our area to exit east to MN by early
evening. Expect the lingering showers to come to an end over our
southwest by around 12Z. This will be while the weakening 500mb
shortwave over western SD slowly exits over eastern ND by the end of
the day. Ridging will then slide overhead at 500mb tonight through
Saturday. As a result, clouds will be slow to exit west to east
this afternoon. After light precip exits to the southeast this
morning, dry weather will be the rule through Saturday. Warm air
advection returns tonight, with about a 10F warmup expected for
Friday afternoon, as the next sfc trough set up from canada through
eastern MT to western SD at 06Z Friday tracks east across the
Dakotas during the day Friday. RH values Friday afternoon will fall
below 30 percent over the southwest corner of the cwa. There is some
uncertainty in the amount of mixing and stronger winds for Friday
afternoon, with the GFS showing stronger winds potential than the
GFS. The potential exists for stronger winds over the fire area of
concern west river, than what we currently have forecast. Another
brief ridge will slide in Friday night, as the next low becomes
better organized over MT/WY.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

The latest models continue to advertise a mid level ridge across the
region through much of the long term. A few waves of energy do top
the ridge, but with little to no moisture to work with, it should
remain mostly dry. By the middle of next week, the ridge begins to
break down some as stronger energy aloft works into the region.
The return of shallow llm may allow for some rain/thunder come about
Tuesday night through Wednesday and beyond. Overall, temperatures
will average out above seasonal norms under persistent ridge aloft.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 141 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

Some p6sm light rain is expected to affect the MBG and PIR areas
early this morning along with mvfr ceilings. Also, ABR and ATY may
have some light fog late tonight. Otherwise, expect it to be vfr
through the entire period as surface high pressure moves across
the region.




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