Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 262029
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Upper level trough will move east across the Dakotas overnight and
into Saturday, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Models agree fairly well in bringing some scattered activity across
the area into the evening and overnight hours. On Saturday, the best
chances set up over the eastern CWA. An examination of severe
parameters for Saturday afternoon would suggest the potential for a
few strong to perhaps severe storms. Weak instability sets up along
with steepening mid-level lapse rates. Wind profiles are moderately
strong a well.

After this system exits later in the day Saturday, will then focus
attention to the warming temperatures. 850mb temps climb into the
upper teens and 20s C on Sunday, which will translate to highs in
the 80s and 90s. Hottest temperatures are forecast across central
SD. Will also have to keep an eye on fire weather Sunday afternoon
over the far western CWA. Current forecast RH values are around 20
percent or below for fire zone 267, but winds appear pretty marginal
or even below criteria for headlines for the time being.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

The long term models show good agreement with the upper level and
surface features. An upper level ridge out to our west on Monday
will build slowly east into and to the east of our region through
the week as a large low pressure trough moves into the western U.S.
At the surface, high pressure over our area will build east with
very warm south winds developing behind it. The entire long term
will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal with highs in the 80s and
lower 90s. It will also be dry through most of the period until
Wednesday night through Friday as the influence of the upper level
trough moves into our region. Short waves will be lifting up and
over the ridge kicking off some showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

A couple upper level low pressure troughs will swing through the
area through the taf period bringing a couple periods of rain. The
first one was bringing a band of rain that was extending from Pierre
to Aberdeen early this afternoon. This will lift northeast and out
the area into the early evening. Pierre and Aberdeen will be
affected. The next stronger low pressure trough will be moving along
the South Dakota border bringing showers/possible thunder to mainly
MBG and ABR later tonight into Saturday morning. Conditions are
expected to be vfr through the entire period.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr


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