Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 261732
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1232 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SO FAR THIS MORNING ONLY SEEING A NARROW AXIS OF ACCAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SEVERAL CAMS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AM...BUT
WITHOUT COMPLETE CONSENSUS...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW END POPS. FOCUS
IS ON THE SYSTEM THAT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS BECOMING ELEVATED
AS THEY PUSH INTO WEST RIVER COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
NOSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. FAVORABLE JET
PLACEMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH...WHICH
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY/EARL FRIDAY. OVERALL MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND TIMING. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY
BRING SOME MODEST QPF AMOUNTS TO THE CWA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PCPN LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS LOOKS TO GRADUALLY RELAX AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES.  HOWEVER...THAT SAID...A THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD. SO THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE THERMAL RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...BUT COULD SEE SOME HIGH
BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN 850-700 MB WARM
AIR/THETAE ADVECTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.