Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 290146 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
846 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Issued at 833 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Mid-level shortwave riding the leading edge of jet level
westerlies still providing enuf synoptic-scale uvm to aide
afternoon heating-induced /~500-750j/kg mlcape/ showers and
thunderstorms across central/north central South Dakota. Latest
short-range HRRR cam solution output suggests this activity
should continue for a few more hours before dissipating. Minor
adjustments have been made to wx/pops/qpf grids as such. Also
added in some fog mention mainly across the James River valley
east toward the Red River valley, given how much precipitation has
fallen across much of eastern South Dakota over the past 24 to 36
hours. Overnight lows are still on track. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

see below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Surface low continues to spin over southeastern South
Dakota/northwestern Iowa...with clouds and precipitation wrapping
around it over portions of the CWA. Storms that developed earlier
along a wind shift axis produced a brief landspout near the Bowdle
area. Things have quieted down since then...but parts of the
southern CWA may still be primed into the late afternoon and early
evening for additional funnel clouds. This activity will gradually
come to an end tonight as the low pressure system tracks northeast
and away from the region. High pressure will settle in on
Sunday...with a mostly dry and warmer day expected.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to
the mid 50s east. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The main focus of forecast package is the strong upper level wave
that will affect the region Monday and Tuesday. While there is some
model difference on timing and strength of the wave, the general
consensus is the area will be impacted by a chance of severe
thunderstorm Monday afternoon west and shifting east into the
evening. The models area also indicating elevated capes great than
3000 j/kg. a class pattern for a severe weather event.

There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday,
but cooler temps look like a good bet, with perhaps some wrap around
instability showers/thunderstorms possible as the upper low tracks
across North Dakota.

The upper ridge looks to being to rebound over the western CONUS
through the period next weekend bringing a warmup to the temps with
a minimal chances of storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

There continue to be a couple of clusters of showers and
thunderstorms working over the CWA presently. One area of showers
and storms extends from near KMBG down to near KPIR. The other
area of showers and storms is located over far northeast South
Dakota, east of KABR and north of KATY. These areas of
precipitation should diminish over the next few hours, leaving the
rest of the taf valid period dry.

Given the amount of precipitation that has fallen over the past
48 hours, plus what some of the numerical model output/guidance is
hinting at overnight tonight throughout the James River valley and
points east, have opted to introduce some fog mention into the
KABR TAF for starters tonight. The KATY TAF could end up seeing
some fog mention, too, before tonight is history. Surface high
pressure is trying to build into the forecast area, signaling a
switch to light west-northwest winds by morning. Once the
convective debris cirrus cloudiness dissipates later tonight,
mostly clear skies combined with relatively light winds and plenty
of surface/boundary layer moisture will promote the potential for
fog formation.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Dorn is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.