Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
222 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The forecast continues to look quite wet through the period. Deep
and strong western conus trof will continue to move only slowly east
through the period. Currently a surface front extends from central
Minnesota, southwest into northeast Nebraska.  As a decent s/w lifts
northeast out of the upper trof tnt, a developing llj will likely
push that surface boundary back north, and in the process deliver
additional moisture above the boundary layer back north into the cwa.
A line of storms on the backside of the boundary will continue to
develop southwest and hook up with the area of showers/storms over
western Nebraska. This entire area will build/move north into the
Missouri and James River valleys this evening and overnight,
lingering into Sunday morning. Severe weather risk looks fairly
minimal given lack of decent cape, but shear is still moderate to
strong through tonight in the east, thus a couple strong to severe
storms are possible over that region. There will likely be some
areas that get pretty hefty rains given the amount of available
moisture, and chance of repeated rain over the same locations. Pwats
approaching 1.75 inch this time of year is pretty significant. By
Sunday afternoon and evening the front should start getting shoved
east, taking the heaviest rains to the east and south of the
forecast area. With plenty of clouds and pcpn around, tnt`s lows
will be relatively mild.  But Sunday`s highs will be on the cool
side given all the clouds and rain.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

It appears that by the time we get to Sunday night/Monday, much of
the rain will begin to taper off and eventually be confined to the
far southeast CWA. We then will have to await the approach of the
main upper low Monday night into Tuesday before precip chances ramp
back up again - mainly for eastern areas. Once the upper low finally
pulls out of the area by Tuesday evening, models indicate a mainly
dry pattern for the next several days.

As for temperatures, cool conditions will continue for Monday and
Tuesday, with signs of a modest warm up more towards seasonal norms
by Wednesday and Thursday. For overnight lows, the potentially
coolest period may be Tuesday night. Models show clouds departing
with a surface high in place. We may be able to start going a bit
cooler than SuperBlend if this trend continues.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

MVFR and IFR CIGs will prevail across the region through the TAF
forecast period. Will also see -SHRA/SHRA re-develop later this
afternoon south of the region and push north through the forecast
area this evening and through the day Sunday. -TSRA is possible at
times, mostly around the KATY region. VSBY may be reduced to MVFR
at times in areas of -SHRA/SHRA.




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