Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 240541 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1141 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE ALL SHIFTED THE LOW A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS CHANGE BY KEEPING PRECIP
WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH SAT EVENING. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SAT THE
CHALLENGE LIES IN DETERMINING TEMP AND PRECIP TYPE AFTER 0Z. FOR
NOW HAVE MOST OF THE REGION JUST SEEING RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE COTEAU EASTWARD INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
COUPLED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SAT NIGHT THERE MAY
BE VISIBILITY ISSUES IN BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING ANY
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY AT THIS TIME WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING MORE PRECIP WHILE THE GFS KEEPS EVERYTHING EAST ACROSS
MN.




.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN INITIALLY FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS KEEPS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN A MILD NORTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST...AND BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 500
MB HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 560 MB-570 MB RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE THEN WORKS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER WITH
AREAS OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING FOR KABR/KATY...WITH LOWER VISBYS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST...BECOMING
INCREASINGLY GUSTY DURING THE DAY.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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