Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 201130 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

The 30-40kt low level jet will be quickly weakening this
morning, with lighter winds expected this afternoon. This will be
even with moderate mixing up to near 800MB. Today will be the last
day with well above normal temperatures, averaging about 10 degrees
above normal once again. The sfc low over western SD early this
morning will shift over south central SD by 18Z.

The low will merge in with a stronger low over southwestern NE early
this evening, with a trough lingering across southern and eastern SD
through at least Thursday. Soundings indicate plenty of moisture
streaming in around daybreak Wednesday, between 925 and 750MB, and
will continue through the day Thursday.

Wednesday highs may come as a shock to some folks, dropping back
into the mid 60s to mid 70s, which will be near to slightly below
normal. The steady zonal flow at 500MB will change to southwesterly
flow/ridging Wednesday into Thursday, in response to the trough over
southwestern Canada digging across the western U.S.

Both Wednesday and Thursday will also be accompanied by stronger
northeasterly winds, with 20kts just off the surface. At this point
it looks like Wednesday will be the breeziest.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday evening through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Mid level ridging will be over the region when the period begins,
with a deep trough over the western part of the country. The ridge
will build Thursday night and Friday, then gets pushed east as the
trough approaches and shortwave energy gets set to swing across the
Northern Plains over the weekend and during the day Monday.

A surface low pressure system over Wyoming/Colorado Thursday night
will gradually begin to push east/northeastward on Friday, and will
track north across the CWA Friday night and Saturday, bringing
decent precipitation chances to the area. Some weak instability will
be associated with it, so will include the mention of thunder. The
system will begin to push off to the east Saturday night, with high
pressure then beginning to nose in from the west and becoming
dominant through the remainder of the period. Therefore, expect dry
conditions Sunday and Monday.

In general, temperatures will be near to slightly below normal.
Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s will be common, with overnight
lows mainly in the upper 40s to the upper 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

An area of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms, will track
across mainly the northern portion of the CWA this morning. Brief
periods of MVFR vsbys are possible with the thunderstorms.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and
tonight.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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