Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201139 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
639 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Starting to see VSBY drop across the eastern CWA as areas of fog
develop. High amounts of low level moisture remain in place, with
nearly calm winds. Wet soils as well from yesterday`s precipitation.
Had already inserted fog into the forecast several hours ago as many
of the models were suggesting it. Starting to see it pan out as a
few locations across the east are getting down to around 1SM.

Surface high pressure across MN and the eastern Dakotas today will
keep conditions mostly dry under a more stable air mass. Only
exception may be the far southwestern CWA where a few showers or
storms may sneak in as they are closer to the stalled out frontal
boundary off to the south. By late afternoon and especially the
overnight hours, chances for showers and storms will increase again.
Seems as if afternoon convection will be more confined to western SD
closer to the surface trough. Chances will increase across our CWA
during the overnight hours as upper level energy ejects eastward and
a bit of a low level jet develops. Not confident at all on placement
and areal coverage of activity, so will keep broad-brushed POPs in
at this time. Will then be watching the surface trough move into the
eastern CWA Friday afternoon and evening. Sufficient instability and
shear will lead to the potential for strong to severe storms once
again. But, there is still little confidence at this time in regards
to timing and placement of storms.

Saturday looks dry as breezy northwest winds bring in drier air.
Dewpoints will fall back into the 50s but temperatures will remain
warm with highs in the 80s and 90s. Increased winds a bit above
SuperBlend on Saturday given a favorable synoptic scale setup.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

The long term begins Saturday night with an upper level ridge axis
over the western U.S. with an upper level low pressure area heading
southeast out of Canada into the Great Lakes region. This puts our
area in cooler northwest flow aloft with corresponding northerly
flow at the surface as high pressure pushes southeast out of Canada
and then to the east of the region through Sunday night. Therefore,
Sunday will be the coolest day in the long term with upper 70s
across the far eastern CWA. These temperatures may end up being even
cooler as we have been a little too warm on some of these cool
pushes of air lately, especially if there is some stratus clouds.
Otherwise, the models all show the western U.S. ridge building into
the central U.S. from Monday into Wednesday bringing very warm/hot
temperatures back to the region. Monday may still be below normal
across the eastern CWA with temperatures warming to just above to
nearly 10 degrees above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday across the
cwa. With the expected upper ridge over the region along with recent
temperatures under these conditions, expect we will have to raise
highs several more degrees as we get closer to this time. More 90s
may be occurring across the CWA for Tuesday and Wednesday. The
region looks to be dry for Saturday night through Monday. There will
then be a few chances of showers/storms for Monday night into
Wednesday as warmer air pushes in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

LIFR/IFR fog and low ceilings will dissipate quickly this morning at
ABR, ATY, and MBG. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through tonight
at all locations. Some showers/storms are possible tonight and may
affect the stations at or in the vicinity.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr



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