Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 281742 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE TROF CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS AM...WITH A LINE OF STORMS TO
THE EAST. AS BOTH FEATURES CONTINUE EAST...PRESSURE RISES INCREASE
WEST RIVER TO 6 TO 8MB/6HRS AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE IN INTENSITY...WHICH WILL HELP
GENERATE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
MIXED WINDS ARE CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA FOR FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...AND WELL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST OF KABR/NORTH OF
KPIR. THE GRADIENT RELAXES OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THERMAL
ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL...ALTHOUGH MIXED DOWN WINDS PICK BACK UP
AROUND 20 TO 30MPH ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES WEDNESDAY AM...BUT
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH WESTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY...WITH READINGS BACK AROUND 90
BY THURSDAY...THOUGH AT LEAST HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE PRETTY QUIET. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLES IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY REAL
CONCERN WILL BE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45
MPH ARE LIKELY TODAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ003>007-009-010-015>017-033>036.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR


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