Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 272351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
AND NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT RANGE IS PCPN AND HOW MUCH. PER WATER
VAPOR LOOP...NICE LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
LIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN A BROAD SENSE THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL QPF OUTPUT...LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENT TIMING/MOVEMENT OF
WAVES WITHIN ADVANCING TROF. MOST MODELS MAINTAIN THE IDEA THAT
THE HEAVIES PCPN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ABR CWA. THE GFS APPEARS TO
DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE VORT AND LOOKS TOO MUCH INFLUENCED BY THIS
PROGNOSTICATION AND THEREFORE HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ITS
SOLUTION. BUT THAT SAID POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A BIT OVER MOST OF
THE CWA GIVEN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODEL OUTPUT. H5-H3
LAYER Q VECTORS OFF THE ECMWF AND LEFT EXIT OF H3 JET SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT WAVE/DIVERGENT AREA MOVING ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SD
BORDER LATE TNT AND THURSDAY. LLJ IS ALSO FOCUSED INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. PWATS WILL BE PRETTY HEALTHY AT 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER
SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL THOUGH SUSPECT THAT THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO NOSE OF LLJ OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
THE ABR CWA. SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECENT ENERGY WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIETER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS LINGER NEAR KMBG THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE ALL SITES ARE
VFR. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP SOUTH OF KABR AND NORTH OF
KPIR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER AROUND
THE SAME TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE CWA NEAR KPIR AND
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CWA BY 12Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHOWERS BR MAY DEVELOP...DROPPING
VSBY EVEN FURTHER INTO IFR NEAR KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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