Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 290522 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1122 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

No major changes planned this evening. Light snow will continue to
rotate south over the region overnight, but especially on Tuesday.
The mix of gusty winds out west and snowfall will continue to
create areas of low visibility through the night. Temperatures
will not change much through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Forecast challenges include precipitation amounts and timing and
strength of northwest winds through Tuesday.

Currently, under a cloudy sky, temperatures range from the upper 20s
to the lower 40s throughout the region. Strong northwest winds have
developed across western and central South Dakota as well, and one
or more bands of light to moderate snow continue to wrap southward
into the forecast area within the TROWAL of a very wound up low
pressure system spinning over eastern North Dakota. Where
temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s across far northeast
South Dakota and into west central MN, the precipitation continues
to fall mainly in the form of rain.

The forecast for tonight into Tuesday calls for multiple bands of
snow to sweep west and south out of North Dakota as the large upper
level low center wobbles around in a nearly stationary fashion.
Water Vapor imagery suggests the upper low center may drift westward
a bit over the next 6 to 12 hours before beginning its south and
east track out of the region Tuesday and beyond. Latest short range
deterministic and ensemble model output suggests an additional 2 to
5 inches (with locally higher, terrain-influenced amounts) of snow
accumulation will be possible over the next 24 hours, in addition to
the snow that has already fallen. The portion of the cwa with the
highest probability of seeing hazardous traveling conditions is
central/north central South Dakota due to strong 20 to 30 mph
northwest winds with gust potential to 45 mph residing there,
versus farther east where wind speeds into the James River valley
eastward are not as strong and not forecast to become as strong as
the winds over the MO River valley. Will continue with the current
areal coverage/timing of the Winter Weather Advisory for snow and
blowing snow. Again, not an overly impressive diurnal swing
expected tonight and into Tuesday. Expecting overnight lows into
the mid to upper 20s out west to the mid/upper 30s across far
northeast South Dakota and west central MN. Tuesday should see
temperatures topping out between 30 and 40 degrees again.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Other than lingering snow showers, the main concern initially
Tuesday evening will be the strong winds west of the MO River.
The 40kt winds hovering between 850 and 900mb will be diminishing
significantly after 09Z Wednesday.

Northwesterly flow will continue over our region thanks to the
nearly stacked sfc-500mb low just to our east. The next sizable
trough extending from the 500mb low will be stretched across
northern ND at 00Z Wednesday, allowing the next round of widespread
light snow to spread across the cwa during the day.

The slow moving sfc low will finally show some eastern movement
Tuesday evening, shifting from central SD at 00Z Wednesday to the
east central MN by Wednesday morning. The low will continue to
slowly slide east over the Great Lakes by the end of the day
Wednesday.

Dry weather will finally take hold by mid day Thursday, and linger
through most if not all of the upcoming weekend. A large area of
high pressure over the Pacific Northwest

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

A mix of mvfr/ifr cigs is expected across the region through
Tuesday. Vsby will also occasionally drop to ifr with snow bands
from time to time, especially at KMBG/KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>036-045.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TDK



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