Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271133
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN POTENTIAL OVER
THE FAR S-SW. MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LOW TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE NE HALF OF THE FA. LOOKING MORE AND MORE THAT DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WIN OUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN POTENTIAL SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH KEEPING MOST AREAS DRY. CLOUDS ON THE OTHER HAND MAY BE MORE
OF A CHALLENGE. MOST GUIDANCE BY 18Z HAS JUST CI OVER MOST OF THE
FA FOR FILTERED SOLAR. COLUMN REMAINS COOL SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

SAME THOUGHTS FOR TONIGHT AS FAR AS RAIN POTENTIAL. FEEL ANY PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THIS AREA REMAINS DRY. WITH DRY/COOL COLUMN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND COULD SEE SOME AREAS
DIPPING BRIEFLY BLO FREEZING.

UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. SLIGHT WARMING ON FRIDAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BLO AVERAGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MB/SK WILL HELP KEEP AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS FAVOR
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO THE SOUTH OVER SD AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MN ON SATURDAY. STILL...WILL CARRY A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY SKIRT NORTHERN MN AND USHER IN A
WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT. FAIR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS STARTING OFF IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
BUT WARMING TO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



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