Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171134
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
634 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Low confidence on light rain reaching the far southeast by mid
morning but will keep low pops going along the fringe. Otherwise
no changes necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Forecast challenges through the short term involve temperatures,
wind, and rain chances across the far s-se. Next big wave over
western Ks to lift ne today into IA by evening then the great
lakes by morning. While Deep convection will remain well south of
the FA the northern fringe of the rain shield will approach the fa
late morning into the afternoon. High resolution model guidance
and CAMs either just clip the far se or remain just south. For
this will trim back a bit on pop coverage. As surface low
approaches from the south surface pressure gradient increases.
model soundings indicating around 30kts within mixed layer to AOB
850mb. As a result looking for breezy/windy conditions but should
remain below advisory thresholds. With some degree of cloud cover
and steady cold advection temperatures will struggle to reach 60.

As the low continues to propagate eastward any pcpn which does
reach the far se should exit this evening. Cold advection levels
off tonight and feel mixing will limit frost potential.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Cool and dry day thursday as surface high continues to build in.
Again even with solar 60 may be tops with cool column in place.

With high pressure center just north of the international border
Thursday night will have watch the frost potential as most areas
to dip into the 30s.

Next upper low begins to lift northeast however feel any pcpn
should hold off until friday night.

For Saturday and Sunday...models diverge on track of slow moving
surface system crossing south and east of the area... although the
ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement than the other models.
Therefore...will trend toward an ECMWF/GFS blend for this forecast.
Current thinking at this time is that the eastern portion of the
forecast area has the highest probability for measurable
precipitation...although precipitation may spread farther west and
encompass the entire area. Otherwise...expect the system to continue
tracking northeast into the arrowhead region of Minnesota and
Ontario.

For Monday through the end of the period...the pattern remains
unsettled with an upper trof over the northern plains...bringing
more chances for precipitation. Temperatures are expected to start
off cooler...but rebound by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

A narrow swath of VFR conditions through the central fa between
IFR/LIFR cigs to the north and MVFR cigs through the south.
Anticipate this filling in during the next couple of hours.
Potential for cigs to lift to VFR this afternoon but timing always
difficult so stuck with guidance. Breezy to windy conditions today
over all but the far east.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker



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