Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 270428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR CLAP OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN ND
LATER THIS AFTN. MODELS VARYING WITH PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
FOR TONIGHT AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TOMORROW...AND HAVE
PRIMARILY USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND. ARE SEEING CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF ND...WITH CLEARING OVER THE VALLEY AS
CIN VALUES AROUND NEG 50 TO 75 J/KG HELP INHIBIT CU DEVELOPMENT.
KEEPING THE ONGOING THEME OF SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ND...HOWEVER WITH NO SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DECLINE AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BUT NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MB TO SINK INTO INTL BORDER AREA AND
BRING SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. EXPECT SPRINKLES OR ON THE ORDER
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS
MODELS DRY THIS ACTIVITY UP BY MID MORNING.

TOMORROW...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PERHAPS MORE CIRRUS
TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE LOW 80S TOMORROW.
A SW RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTN WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND SW
FLOW SETS UP. THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL AFTN
CONVECTION UNTIL SHIFT EAST AROUND 00Z TO 03Z.

TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW LIFTS INTO DAKOTAS WHILE AN
OPEN GULF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS ENTERING CWA IN THE 03Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND RAIN INTENSITY FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWALTERS REMAIN POSITIVE FOR MAJORITY
OF CWA...AND WEAKLY NEG ACROSS THE SOUTH. LLJ SHOULD ENABLE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS THAN
STORMS. QPF VALUES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM| CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THU AND THU NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
DID INCREASE TSTMS COVERAGE FROM 18Z TO 00Z THU IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNZONES. SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTN...HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR SHOULD BRING SHORT LIVED STORMS. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGES BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER
AIR TO THE REGION...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM
CDT TUE MAY 26 2015FR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN ANY
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO WILL NOT MENTION.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z THU AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVEVTION JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.