Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
617 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Winds are decreasing as expected, but more so across the Devils
Lake region so far. Generally expect them to become light and
variable after sundown. Most of the night should be clear, before
clouds increase once again toward morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Today`s gusty winds will continue to diminish late this afternoon
and into the evening hours as the pressure gradient weakens and we
lose our deep mixing. The nearly stacked low to the north will
continue to drift slowly from NE MB eastward to Hudson Bay tonight
and tomorrow. A weak wave will move east in the westerly flow aloft
across SD and southern ND into MN late tonight. Some strong mid
level theta-e advection will produce a few showers in SE ND and into
west-central MN late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Not
expecting much for rainfall out of this feature. Lows should stay up
a bit in the south...but fall into the low to mid 40s in the north.
After the morning clouds/possible showers in the south tomorrow
morning...clouds will linger across much of the area (except perhaps
the far north) with highs topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Wed-Thu...Persistent warm frontal boundary will lurk south of the
forecast area during Wed/Thu with pcpn shield stretching toward
the extreme southern portion of the region. can`t rule out a bit
of overrunning -ra a little farther north and west for at least
part of Wednesday. Northeast surface flow will dominate both days
leading to a cooler temperature regime, expecting highs in the low
to mid 60s during this time.

Fri-Mon...Action looks to get going during this time period.
Split flow situation with well formed upper trough setting up over
the four corners and remaining quasi stationary for a while early
in the period. Believe this may delay onset of rainy weather for
our region perhaps beyond Friday afternoon. Certainly by Saturday,
though pronounced southerly 500 mb trajectory should be in place
to increase PWATS and eventual SH/TRW. Dry slotting cannot be
ruled out later Saturday into Sunday before closed low/deformation
pcpn rides through to end the weekend. Temperatures to remain in
the 60s over the weekend with overnight lows averaging about 50.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

The gusty west winds will die down by sunset and remain that way
into the day Tuesday. Most of the night will be clear, before
clouds increase again toward morning. These should mainly be mid
level clouds.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Godon is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.