Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221125
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ON TRACK/TIMING OF SURFACE LOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT OVERLY SIGNIFICANT.

FOR TODAY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST SETTING UP WARM
ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW. SOME CI MAY BRING SOME FILTER SOLAR
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER MT
TONIGHT. MIXING OUT AHEAD SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY FROM MID 30S-MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH W-E
ORIENTED WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AREA.
COULD SEE SOME SHRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY HOWEVER UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS WEAK. STABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THUNDER NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES CLIMB ABOVE AN INCH AND DEEPEST
LAYERED RH NORTH OF LOW TRACK ACROSS ND AND ADJACENT MN ALONG WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS A BIT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FA BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME MINOR INSTABILITY
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER SO WILL MAINTAIN T POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF IS A TAD WETTER THAN THE GFS
OVERALL...AND DOES MOVE THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH
RESULTING IN A MORE ROBUST PCPN PATTERN AGAIN FAVORING THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD TO THE RECENT TREND OF BELOW AVERAGE
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE BRIEF OVERNIGHT MIXED PCPN WHEN IT DOES OCCUR
ALONG WITH RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BJI BRIEFLY WENT IFR
IN FG HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



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