Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151853
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CURRENT HEADLINES CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS
AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT PCPN BAND FROM KMVX-88D CONTINUES ACROSS EXTREME
SE NE INTO WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL MN. THIS BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH 800-750MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM JET MAXIMA. MESOSCALE MODELS GRADUALLY SHIFT FEATURE SE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY TAKING PLACE.
PCPN PHASE WITHIN BAND PRIMARILY -SN HOWEVER SOME SLEET AND ZR
CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED. ALTHOUGH SNOW/ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. FOR THIS TRANSITIONED ZR ADVISORY OVER TO A WINTER WX
ADVISORY TO BETTER HANDLE MIXED PCPN AND EXTENDED UNTIL 4PM.
CONFINED HEADLINES TO FAR SE FA AND EXPIRED HEADLINES FARTHER
NORTH. OTHERWISE MSAS PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA DROPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN FA WHERE STRONGEST WINDS EXIST. ISOLATED LOCATIONS NOSING
INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES HOWEVER NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO WARRANT HEADLINES. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT HEADLINES. EXPIRED ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NW MN. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZDZ HOWEVER SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT ROADWAYS. EXTENDED ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH-EAST OF A LINE FROM BAUDETTE TO FOSSTON...FARGO AND VALLEY CITY.
STILL GETTING REPORTS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY MIX AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
WILL REVISIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF ANY AREAS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL MN WILL NEED AN EXTENSION IN TIME. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MOST OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
GFK AREA...BUT WITH RECENT WET CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE SLICK. IN ADDITION...MORE RETURNS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY
GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAIN HEADACHE IS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST TODAY.

THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHERN CUT OFF LOW
MOVING THROUGH KANSAS ON ITS WAY TO IOWA. THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA AND MOST SITES HAVE SEEN A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION. A FEW SPOTS IN
THE EASTERN TIER ARE HANGING ABOVE FREEZING BUT THE REST HAVE
FALLEN BELOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ABUNDANT EVEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WHERE TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE GROWTH...SO MOST OF
OUR PRECIP WILL BE SUPERCOOLED WATER. THE RAP AND NAM BOTH HAVE
THE LOW LEVEL OMEGA IN THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUING TO SHOW
SOME RISING MOTION. WILL EXTEND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL
15Z AND EXTEND IT EAST AS TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING AND VIS HAVE
BEEN RISING WHERE OUR DENSE FOG HEADLINE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT SOME LOW POPS TO BLEND IN AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
BY. TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN INTO
NORTHEASTERN MN AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. SAT LOOP SHOWS FAIRLY CONSISTENT CLOUDS WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST UNTIL ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG
THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA BORDER. TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LOT OF RH AT LOW LEVELS SO THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGER
THAN EXPECTED. BUMPED UP CLOUDS AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES
ACCORDINGLY FOR TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...BUT THE AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF MOST OF OUR COUNTIES SO
KEPT CLOUDS HIGHER A BIT LONGER ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY SOCKED IN.
EVEN WITH A BIT OF SUN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE TEMPS IN
THE TEENS FOR TUESDAY AND WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
COLD EVEN AS CLOUDS START TO DECREASE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF
 CANADA REMAINS THROUGH DAY 5 THEN RETROGRADES/RE-ESTABLISH
FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

GFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE GFS WANT TO DEVELOP A STRONGER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRI AND SAT WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
ECMWF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE OR NO PRECIP THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS ON THU AND FRI. HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT
AND SUN MOST PLACES COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND RELAX A LITTLE
BY EARLY EVENING...BUT NOT TOO MUCH. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHER
SUSTAINED WINDS HOLDING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS
GUSTINESS TO THE WIND. AFTER 12Z TUE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE. MAIN QUESTION IS CLOUDS AND CLOUD HEIGHTS. THERE ARE SOME
HOLES NORTH OF WINNIPEG BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT ANY OF THESE WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD SO HAVE STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE. ROSE HEIGHTS SOME THRU THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ017-
     024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER






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